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Fusion and the World Energy Scene Chris Llewellyn Smith Director UKAEA Culham Chairman Consultative Committee for Euratom on Fusion (CCE-FU). If chance of zero or very small should stop achieving viable fusion R&D fusion power is reasonable should develop as fast as possible
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Fusion and the World Energy SceneChris Llewellyn SmithDirector UKAEA CulhamChairman Consultative Committee for Euratom on Fusion (CCE-FU)
fusion power is reasonable should develop as fast as possible
What is a “reasonable” chance depends on
(will touch on all these issues)
“Even if ITER runs well over budget, its spending is unlikely to exceed $1bn a year. That would be a small price to pay even for a 20% chance of giving the world another energy option” I hope to convince you that
- This is right
- Chance of success is > 20%
e.g. coal = 35% in UK*, 54% in USA, 76% in China
* falling as EU emission directives => closure of coal power stations; without new nuclear build the UK likely to be 70% reliant on (mainly imported) gas by 2020
HDI ( ~ life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP per capita at PPP) versus Primary Energy Demand per Capita (2002) in tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) pa [1 toe pa = 1.33 kWs]
Carbon dioxide levels over the last 60,000 years - we are provoking the atmosphere!
SourceUniversity of Berne and National Oceanic, and Atmospheric Administration
There is widespread evidence of climate changee.g. Thames Barrier Now Closed Frequently to Counteract Increasing Flood Risk (=> potential damage ~ £30bn)
EU Emissions Trading certificates (introduced earlier this year) were recently trading at €30/(tonne of CO2) => 3€cents/kWhr for coal generation (1.5€cents for gas)
[Eurofer = low activation steel]
[second figure for early model; first for mature technology]
The variation of direct cost of electricity with the main parameters is well fitted by:
A - plant availability
th - thermodynamic efficiency
Pe - net electrical output of the plant (which can be chosen)
N - normalised plasma pressure
N - normalised plasma density
In parallel to fast track to (conventional tokamak-based) DEMO needConcept Development:
Stellarators, spherical tokamaks,…
=> increased work on technology and materials, and start building IFMIF
Sir David King (Chief Scientific Advisor to UK Government)
“It would be a total dereliction of the case for ITER if the material project was not up and running in parallel”
capitalise on ITER investment
Oil and gas
EU energy subsidy and R&D~ 30 Billion Euro (per year)
Source : EEA, Energy subsidies in the European Union: A brief overview, 2004.
Fusion and fission are displayed separately using the IEA government-R&D data base and EURATOM 6th framework programme data
Fusion power should be developed as one of very few options for base-load power, even if the chance of success is not 100%