1 / 24

Wholesale Power Price Forecast Update: Current Trends & Future Estimates

Get detailed insights into the wholesale power price forecast, estimating future spot market prices from 2001 to 2025. Learn how the forecast impacts market dynamics, resource development, and environmental effects. Discover the significance of the "Current Trends" case and its implications. Stay informed with the latest updates and assumptions influencing the power price forecast.

sera
Download Presentation

Wholesale Power Price Forecast Update: Current Trends & Future Estimates

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Wholesale Power Price Forecast01/28/03 Current Trends Update Jeff King January 31, 2003

  2. What is the power price forecast? • An estimate of future wholesale spot market power prices. • E.g., as would be traded as short-term contracts at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. • 2001 to 2025. • Monthly and annual average prices for high & low-load hours (can also look at hourly prices). SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  3. Ancillary products • Market-driven future generating capacity additions. • Estimate of fuel use. • Estimate of certain environmental effects of system operation (e.g. CO2 production). • Transmission usage SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  4. Uses of the power price forecast • Estimate the market value of new resource alternatives (e.g., conservation measures). • Estimate the cost implications of policies affecting power system composition or operation (e.g., value of a seasonal shift in hydro output). • Estimate environmental effects of changes in power system composition or operation (e.g., effect of resource additions on CO2 production). • Price forecast input into risk analysis model. • Resource development forecast into GENESYS model SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  5. Forecasting process SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  6. Geographic Scope • Load-resource areas defined by transmission bottlenecks • individual generating units (>3700 total) • fuel price forecasts for ea. LRA • load forecast for ea. LRA • load curtailment blocks for ea. LRA • new resource options for ea. LRA SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  7. General assumptions • Projects under construction are completed as scheduled; additional projects are market-driven. • Suspended projects: • If > 25% complete, entered as partial-cost new resource options. • If < 25% complete, omitted • New projects are developed by resource-specific mix of developers. • Projects scheduled for retirement are retired; additional retirements are market-driven. SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  8. Other general assumptions • Intra-regional transmission cost: • $15/kW/yr point-to-point transmission & basic ancillary services cost plus 1.9% transmission loss penalty. • Exceptions include peaking units and industrial cogeneration • Pancaked inter-area transmission losses & rates. • Bid margin set at 5% of variable cost. SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  9. Significance of the “Current Trends” Case • Our best estimate of future wholesale power prices resulting from continuation of current economic and energy policy trends. • Average water conditions • Average loads • Not necessarily the “Right thing to do” • may not fully consider value of risk mitigation. • may represent less than desirable reserve levels. • Not intended to represent a recommended course of action SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  10. Current Trends case assumptions • NPPC medium fuel price forecasts. • NPPC medium load forecasts: • Demand returns to medium growth rates by 2006. • Long-term growth adjusted for programmatic conservation. • New resource options most likely to play significant role: • Gas-fired combined-cycle GT • Duct firing (power augmentation) for combined-cycle • Gas-fired simple-cycle GT • Wind • Pulverized coal-fired steam-electric • Solar PV • Permanent 1.7 cents/kWh production incentive for new wind & solar. SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  11. More Current Trends case assumptions • SBC and RPS resource development where adopted: • simulated as new wind. • quantity based on estimated above-market resource cost (resource cost less price forecast) • Oregon CO2 standard for all new fossil units: • offset fee $1/TCO2 (2000), escalating at 20%/yr. • applies to 17% of total CO2 production. • $7.50/MWh green tag revenue for new renewables. • Intermittent resources limited ~ 20% of total native capacity, by area. • No new coal in Western WA, W. OR, CA. SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  12. Forecast Fuel Price Trends(%/yr, 2003 – 2025) SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  13. Natural gas prices are based on US wellhead forecast SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  14. New resource characteristics SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  15. Additional new resource characteristics SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  16. Updates since September draft • Updated inventory of recently-completed projects and projects under construction. • Updated load growth forecasts. • CO2 offset cost escalates as originally intended. • Adjusted hydro shaping factors British Columbia. • Corrected fuel price pointers for several resources. • Corrected New Mexico variable gas prices. • Recalibrated duct-firing and RPS/SBC resource builds. • Adjusted quantities of second block of new wind. • Recalculated fixed O&M costs for existing resources. • First load curtailment block restored to default value. SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  17. Forecast WECC Resource Mix(012503 Current Trends Update) SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  18. Mid-Columbia price forecast SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  19. Levelized Mid-Columbia price forecast (2006 – 25) SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  20. Monthly average prices & loads (Mid C) SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  21. Forecast WECC Fuel Use SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  22. Forecast WECC CO2 Production(012403 Current Trends Update) SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  23. Base & sensitivity studies 1 SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

  24. Base & sensitivity studies 2 SN-03-E-CR&YA-02U

More Related