Analysis of Alternate Approach Data (Round 9)

1. Analysis of Alternate Approach Data(Round 9) 30 August 2004 jar

2. Pb versus average upper bearing weight loss using valid reference tests on 820-2 with original bearings – some relationship across test variability

3. Pb versus average upper bearing weight loss using reference tests on 820-2 plus PC-9J with all bearing batches – stronger relationship across test variability, bearings, and oils

4. Pb versus average upper bearing weight loss using industry commercial data with original bearings – best fit across oils has curvature

5. Pb versus average upper bearing weight loss using industry commercial data across oils is stronger and has greater slope than using reference data with one oil

6. Average upper bearing weight loss using valid references with 820-2 shows significantly lower results on original design bearings than original bearings

7. Putting together bearing difference seen in references with relationship from commercial tests, we model Pb with original design bearings as a function of average upper bearing weight loss • Modeled Pb = prediction from adjusted BWL to Pb • based on template8 commercial data • where BWL is adjusted for change in bearings • based on reference tests with 820-2 • PbM = exp(0.603 + 0.0156 (ABWLU x 215 / 119) • - 0.000017858 x (ABWLU x 215 / 119)2 • = exp(0.603 + 0.028 ABWLU • – 0.00005829 ABWLU2, • if UBWL ≤ 245 • = 58, if UBWL > 245

8. Pb2 versus delta in differential IR from 250 to 300 hours using valid reference tests on 820-2 with original bearings – some relationship across test variability

9. Pb2 versus delta in differential IR from 250 to 300 hours using valid reference tests on 820-2 plus PC-9J with all bearing batches – stronger relationship across test variability, bearings, and oils

10. Pb2 versus delta in differential IR from 250 to 300 hours using industry commercial data with original bearings – best fit across oils benefits from average upper bearing weight loss

11. Pb2 versus delta dIR using industry commercial data across oils is similar relationship to the one using reference data with one oil

12. Pb2 versus average upper bearing weight loss using industry commercial data across oils is stronger and has greater slope than using reference data with one oil

13. Delta in differential IR from 250 to 300 hours using valid references with 820-2 shows significantly lower results on original design bearings than original bearings

14. Putting together bearing and delta dIR difference seen in references with relationship from commercial tests, we model Pb2 with original design bearings as a function of delta dIR and average upper bearing weight loss Modeled Pb250300 = prediction from adjusted BWL and adjusted dIR250300 to Pb250300 • based on template8 commercial data where BWL and dIR250300 are adjusted for change in bearings • based on reference tests with 820-2 Pb250300M = -5.9 + 0.029 (dIR250300*109/40 ) + 0.045 * (ABWLU x 215 / 119) = -5.9 + 0.079 dIR250300 + 0.081 ABWLU

15. Summary • PbM = exp(0.603 + 0.028 ABWLU – 0.00005829 BWLU2, if UBWL ≤ 245 = 58, if UBWL > 245 • Pb250300M = -5.9 + 0.079 dIR250300 + 0.081 ABWLU