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CRGAQS: Revised CAMx 2004 Results

CRGAQS: Revised CAMx 2004 Results. Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team By ENVIRON International Corporation May 2, 2007. Today’s Presentation. Describe OR/WA emission changes Describe November 2004 met changes Revised 2004 CAMx simulation results Next Steps.

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CRGAQS: Revised CAMx 2004 Results

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  1. CRGAQS:Revised CAMx 2004 Results Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team By ENVIRON International Corporation May 2, 2007

  2. Today’s Presentation • Describe OR/WA emission changes • Describe November 2004 met changes • Revised 2004 CAMx simulation results • Next Steps

  3. Additional WA Funding • 2004 and 2018 emission improvements • 2004 November meteorological improvements • Rerun CAMx • 2004 Base Case, August and November episodes • 2018 Future Case, August and November episodes • 2018 “What-if” scenarios • 2004 and 2018 PSAT runs, both episodes

  4. OR/WA Emission Changes • Reviewed/changed ammonia emissions: • All CAFOs increased: • x1.2 for OR, x1.4 for WA • Three Mile Canyon near Boardman increased x4.3 • head count and “flush” operations identified • Certain fertilizer application types increased • x3.3 for anhydrous and aqueous • x2.7 for nitrogen solution • Checked monthly fertilizer allocation by state (but not changed) • No 2018 WRAP ammonia – WRAP used 2002 numbers for 2018 • We used 2002 WRAP outside OR/WA for 2018 • We used 2004 OR/WA for 2018

  5. OR/WA Emission Changes • Reviewed/changed residential wood combustion: • ODEQ revealed x2 over estimate from surveys • WRAP 2018 RWC indicates x7 growth for OR, x3 growth for WA, from our 2004 RWC • WRAP emissions contractor (ERG) stated a 4% growth (population-based) • We reduced 2004 RWC by 50% and grew by 4% for 2018 • Monthly profiles differ in 2004 from 2018 (but not changed)

  6. OR/WA Emission Changes • Reviewed wind-blown dust methodology • Found some minor issues, but did not change given very small component of overall PM

  7. November Met Changes • Background • August is performing OK, but November lacks secondary aerosols • Lack of fog reduces aqueous SO4 production • Low humidity reduces NO3 condensation • Hypothesis: If we can get the fog right, • Aqueous SO4 production can occur • High humidity will help increase condensation of ammonium nitrate

  8. November Met Changes • Approach • Gather satellite imagery for the period (provided by Paul) • Calculate MM5 average fog water content occurring over the episode -- use as the default water content to fill in the fog “holes” • Evaluate imagery against CAMx cloud plots to identify onset of fog and spatial extent – use terrain fields to define valleys and basins where the fog consistently forms and lingers • Use results from (2) and (3) to fill in fog in CAMx cloud field • Modify CAMx chemistry routine to ensure that relative humidity is 100% for a cloudy grid cell

  9. August 2004 Results

  10. August 2004 Results

  11. August 2004 Results

  12. August 2004 Results

  13. August 2004 Results

  14. August 2004 Results

  15. August 2004 Results

  16. November 2004 Results

  17. November 2004 Results

  18. November 2004 Results

  19. November 2004 Results

  20. November 2004 Results

  21. November 2004 Results

  22. November 2004 Results

  23. November 2004 Results

  24. Next Steps • 2018 runs are “in the oven” • 2018 “what-if” scenarios are about to start • 2004/18 PSAT runs will start after these are completed • Complete technical report

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