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Sub-national foreign-born population projections the case of andalusia

Sub-national foreign-born population projections the case of andalusia. Silvia Bermúdez, Juan A. Hernández & Joaquín Planelles Andalusian Statistical Office. Index. Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results. Index.

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Sub-national foreign-born population projections the case of andalusia

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  1. Sub-national foreign-born population projectionsthe case of andalusia Silvia Bermúdez, Juan A. Hernández & Joaquín Planelles AndalusianStatistical Office

  2. Index • Andalusia in Context • Nationality versus Place of Birth • Demographic Phenomena • Main Results

  3. Index • Andalusia in Context • Nationality versus Place of Birth • Demographic Phenomena • Main Results

  4. Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe

  5. Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe 2. It is a part of Spain

  6. Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe 2. It is a part of Spain 3. It is down south of Iberian Peninsula

  7. Andalusia in Context 17 Regions Big within Spanish context: 1st in terms of population. 8 million, 18% share 2nd in terms of size, 17% share

  8. Andalusia in Context 50 Provinces (8 in Andalusia) 8.112 municipalities (770 in Andalusia)

  9. Andalusia in Context Madrid and the Coast 2 out of 6 half-million cities

  10. Andalusia in Context Madrid and the Coast 2 out of 6 half-million cities … And immigrants follow the very same pattern

  11. Index • Andalusia in Context • Nationality versus Place of Birth • Demographic Phenomena • Main Results

  12. Nationality vs Place of birth 1. Andalusian population projection have traditionally distinguished 3 variables…. Origin of individuals

  13. Nationality vs Place of birth 2. The choice of the definition is mainly based on data availability & plausibility of identifying demographic clusters

  14. Nationality vs Place of birth Further questions…. we have assumed… • Long term convergence? • Second generations • How many “origin” groups? • Different patterns for fertility, ¿mortality? & mobility converge on the long term • Not considered separately • 5 groups based on the place of birth with unique population structures & demographic behaviours

  15. Nationality vs Place of birth 1. Born in Spain

  16. Nationality vs Place of birth 2. Born in Africa Male thing, labor ages

  17. Nationality vs Place of birth 3. Born in Latin America Female thing, labor ages

  18. Nationality vs Place of birth 4. Born in UE15 Retirement thing

  19. Nationality vs Place of birth 5. Other Balanced, labor ages.

  20. Index • Andalusia in Context • Nationality versus Place of Birth • Demographic Phenomena • Main Results

  21. Demographic Phenomena 1. Changes in fertility patterns are similar to other European Regions Though changes were more drastic and they began later

  22. Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner

  23. Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner … But immigrant population is heterogeneous

  24. Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner … But immigrant population is heterogeneous

  25. Demographic Phenomena 2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia

  26. Demographic Phenomena 2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia … So we assumed those trends to continue in the future

  27. Demographic Phenomena 2. It was impossible to record differential place of birth mortality patterns Strong positive correlation income vs health status

  28. Demographic Phenomena 3. Migration analysis and modeling issues • Most volatile phenomena • Difficult to deal with when forecasting • Sub-phenomena based on the flow direction & geographical scope • Internal & External, In & out migrations • Migration data presents lower quality than other phenomena • Difficult coverage of targeted population

  29. Demographic Phenomena 3. Migration sub-phenomena decomposition As many times as birth groups selected

  30. Index • Andalusia in Context • Nationality versus Place of Birth • Demographic Phenomena • Main Results

  31. Main Results 1. Population will continue growing in the coming years, due to its natural growth potential Nonetheless, population is likely to fall in the long run

  32. Main Results 2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall

  33. Main Results 2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall Despite expected reduction in mortality, casualties are likely increase

  34. Main Results 3. Ageing. Baseline

  35. Main Results 3. Ageing. Low growth

  36. Main Results 3. Ageing. High growth

  37. Main Results 3. Population is ageing

  38. Main Results 3. Population is ageing … But should we use static indicators of ageing? Dynamic indicators may be required to compare the so called “senior groups” in a context of continuous Improvement of Life Expectancy & Disability-free life expectancy rates

  39. Main Results 4. Foreign-born population is likely to increase in the future.

  40. Main Results 4. Foreign-born population is likely to increase in the future. … But in the long term, immigrant population will get older too.

  41. Main Results http://www.iea.junta-andalucia.es/proyecc 5. Data access.

  42. Contact information Thank you • jantonio.hernandez@juntadeandalucia.es • silvia.bermudez.parrado@juntadeandalucia.es • joaquin.planelles@juntadeandalucia.es

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