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ALCOHOL AND ASSAULT: A COMPARATIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. ROBERT NASH PARKER ANN HOPE NORMAN GIESBRECHT. FIRST EXAMPLE OF NEW INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE PROJECT. ASSAULT AND ALCOHOL ASSAULT MAJOR SOCIAL PROBLEM LITERATURE IN CRIMINOLOGY NOT EXTENSIVE

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ALCOHOL AND ASSAULT: A COMPARATIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS


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alcohol and assault a comparative time series analysis

ALCOHOL AND ASSAULT: A COMPARATIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

ROBERT NASH PARKER

ANN HOPE

NORMAN GIESBRECHT

first example of new international comparative project
FIRST EXAMPLE OF NEW INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE PROJECT
  • ASSAULT AND ALCOHOL
    • ASSAULT MAJOR SOCIAL PROBLEM
    • LITERATURE IN CRIMINOLOGY NOT EXTENSIVE
    • IMPACT OF ALCOHOL MAY LEAD TO POLICY IMPLICATIONS
    • GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HARM REDUCTION
design of this paper
DESIGN OF THIS PAPER
  • THREE COUNTRY COMPARATIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
  • CHARACTERISTICS:
    • LONG TIME SERIES (1950-2006)
    • ALCOHOL AS TOTAL PURE LITERS PER CAPITA
    • ALL CRIMINAL ASSAULTS EXCLUDING SEXUAL ASSAULT
methodological approach
METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH
  • CONCEPTUAL APPROACH
    • SIGNAL TO NOISE
    • USED IN DOZENS OF SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES: ELCTRONICS, ASTRONOMY, ENGINEERING, PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIOLOGY
  • ARIMA MODELS
    • IDENTIFCATION PHASE
      • IDENTIFY THE NOISE COMPONENTS
methodological approach cont
METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH (CONT)
  • AR: SHORT TERM WEIGHTED EFFECTS AT LAG X
  • I: SIMPLE UNWEIGHTED EFFECT AT LAG X
  • MA: WEIGHTED AVERAGES OF CURRENT AND LAG(S) UP TO AND INCLUDING X
example ireland
EXAMPLE: IRELAND
  • AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION USED TO IDENTIFY COMPONENTS
  • IDENTIFY TENTATIVELY A TYPE AT A LAG X, MODEL, RE-TEST WITH ACF AND PACF
  • ITERATIVE PROCESS
model for assaults predicted by alcohol in ireland 1950 2006
MODEL FOR ASSAULTS PREDICTED BY ALCOHOL IN IRELAND 1950-2006
  • RESULTS:
    • AR(1) = -0.40 (3.13**)
    • Alcohol = .272 (4.02**)
  • For US: significant impact of Beer on assaults; null results for Canada
discussion
DISCUSSION
  • What have we learned from comparative method?
  • Despite Canada’s high assault, preliminary analysis finds no link to alcohol
  • While total consumption per capita predicted assaults in Ireland, only beer seemed significant in the US
  • Two of three countries show alcohol and assault relationship
conclusion
CONCLUSION
  • International Project on Alcohol and Assault shows promise
  • Potential for large scale harm reduction from reducing alcohol consumption and thus reducing significantly the assault rate
  • Please join us in this project: email robnp@aol.com to be added to the list and receive in the next month or so a first attempt to survey alcohol and assault time series data availability across the world