1 / 23

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM. Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale , Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan. Trop goup – 10th Oct. PhD questions.

seamus
Download Presentation

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Tropical Cyclones and Climate ChangeResults from HiGEM Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan Tropgoup – 10th Oct

  2. PhD questions • Will there be a change in TC activity (location, intensity, frequency, lifetime, structure) with climate change? • How does this change depend on resolution? • How well are the governing mechanisms represented in climate models and how does resolution affect their representation? • What is the role of teleconnections - Possible ENSO changes on NAtl TC activity? • [What is the role of coupling with the ocean?]

  3. Current work • Explaining the change of TC activity • Change in parameters relevant to TCs: SST, vws, RH, -ω • Investigating the ENSO teleconnections on TCs (and possible ENSO change) - Change in NINO3.4 SSTs - El Niño composites vs. La Niña composites

  4. New warm core level TRACKing Tighter filter on storms. • Warm core testing between individual levels (still applying dec. Vor. With height) • Test for cold core at lower levels and warm core aloft • Removes monsoon type depressions

  5. Change in track densities with increased CO2

  6. Change in TC frequency (%)

  7. Regional change of 850hPa wspeed

  8. Large scale tropical change

  9. regional scale tropical change

  10. Change in SST Zhao et al (2009)

  11. Change in vws Vecchi et al (2007)

  12. Change in RH700 Vecchi et al (2007)

  13. Change in –ω500

  14. Change in ppt

  15. ENSO telleconnections on HiGEM TCs NINO3.4 SST DJF > 1 or <1, year containing D Bengtsson et al (2006)

  16. Future work • More analysis explaining the TC change – change in Walker and Hadley plots • TCs in different resolutions and climate change simulations • Changes in SH • ENSO influence on NATL activity - compare IBTrACS and re-analysis to HiGEM present day simulation.

  17. 2 types of ENSO in HiGEM Kug and Ham (2011) • Investigate change in TC activity with the 2 types of El Nino. • Investigate the change in types of ENSO in HiGEM inc. CO2 and the TC relation

  18. HiGEM CTRL TC frequency Atl Additional obs are 1851-2010, 1944-2010, 1966-2010, 1981-2010, 1995-2010 From Blake (2010)

  19. Change in structure 100 most intense TCs at most intense Earth relative winds Below 35oN NH Avg 30 yr ctrl 4xCO2 2xCO2 10o radius 850hPa

More Related