Analysis of vulnerability to climate change
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Analysis of Vulnerability to Climate Change. Maria Fernanda Zermoglio (SEI), Barbara Huddleston, presented by Annie Roncerel, UNITAR. Vulnerability. What is vulnerability? Vulnerability is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm which is caused by a stress or shock.

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Analysis of vulnerability to climate change l.jpg

Analysis of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Maria Fernanda Zermoglio (SEI), Barbara Huddleston,

presented by Annie Roncerel, UNITAR


Vulnerability l.jpg
Vulnerability

  • What is vulnerability?

    Vulnerability is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm which is caused by a stress or shock.

  • What is weather(climate)-related vulnerability?

    Weather-related vulnerability is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm caused by weather-related stresses or shocks.

  • What is vulnerability to climate change?

    Vulnerability to climate change is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm caused by the consequences of long-term changes in weather patterns.


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Why assessing vulnerability?

“The purpose of assessing vulnerability is to be able to take appropriate actions to reduce vulnerability before the potential for damage becomes actual” (Anderson, 1995, p. 41)


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Why assess vulnerability to climate change?

  • Because climate impacts do and will differ

    • For different people/groups of people

    • For different sectors

    • In different areas

    • At different times

  • And because

    • Other environmental, economic and social factors are different from one place to another

    • Capacity to adapt differs; people’s responses will differ


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What causes vulnerability?

Inability to cope

Hazard

DISASTER

Fragile physicalenvironment

Dangerous locations

Vulnerable

infrastructure

Fragile local economy

Livelihoods at risk

Low income levels

Trigger events

Storms

Flooding

Landslides

Drought

Poverty

Few skills or

assets

Lack of

diversity in

sources of

livelihood

Economic &

cultural

rigidities

No insurance

Macro-forces

Investment

patterns

Market

performance

Population growth Urbanization

Environmental

degradation


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What are climate change hazards?

  • Known hazardous impacts

  • Increased uncertainty

    • Greater variability and randomness in the occurrence of natural climatic phenomena

    • Knowledge uncertainty -- we don't know everything about the earth system and we can’t make completely accurate scientific predictions about how it will behave or how society will respond to changes


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Who / What is at risk?

  • Livelihood groups

  • Environmental elements

  • Socio-economic systems

  • Infrastructure


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Visualisation

Who? Subsistence farmers in the foothills

What? Increased frequency of droughts

Where? Senqu River valley

Meteorological and socio-economic databases

+

=

Ability to “see”



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What actions are needed to reduce risk and vulnerability?

  • Actions that manage risk

  • Actions that strengthen resilience

  • Actions that mitigate climate change


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Acting to address vulnerability to climate change = ADAPTATION!

  • What’s the benefit of integrating mitigation and adaptation?

  • What’s ongoing that can be strengthened?

  • What’s needed that is not yet being done ?


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Objectives of working sessions ADAPTATION!

  • Deepen understanding of climate change and the variety of impacts it may have

  • Explore implications of climate change for different ecosystems and livelihood groups in specific country settings

  • Identify actions that IFAD could promote to respond to climate change consistent with already identified strategic opportunities and ongoing country programmmes


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Challenges of climate change: ADAPTATION!Four country cases

DROUGHT-PRONE REGIONS: WHERE COPING IS A WAY OF LIFE

  • The Case of Northeastern Brazil

    DRYLANDS: ADAPTATION IN WATER-SCARCE ENVIRONMENTS

  • The Case of Jordan

    SMALL ISLAND STATES: IS NATIONAL SURVIVAL AN OPTION?

  • The Case of the Maldives

    DESERTS: EXPLOITING THE ENERGY OF THE SUN

  • The Case of Mauritania


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About the exercise ADAPTATION!

  • We will divide into five working groups, with each one assigned to explore vulnerabilities and response options for the five selected countries.

  • You will have until 10:30 to prepare a working group report comprised of two flipcharts.

  • One chart should contain a handrawn map of the country that shows:

    • current and future climate change hazards

    • ecosystems

    • vulnerable livelihood groups

  • The other should contain a short list of bullet points, covering:

    • strategic priorities of current IFAD programme in the country

    • adaptive actions best suited to address climate change hazards and vulnerabilities in the country

    • match or mismatch between the two

    • options for adjusting the IFAD country programme to incorporate response to climate change


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What’s in your packets ADAPTATION!

  • Powerpoint notes pages

  • Climate change brochure (see Table: Climate and ecosystem interactions, pp. 10-11)

  • Figure: Effects of global warming on the earth system

  • Map of the country

  • General background notes on the country

  • List: Current IFAD programme priorities in the country

  • Table: Options for responding to climate change


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AND NOW ADAPTATION!

Join your country working group and begin!

Thank you


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