The İstanbul Earthquake Master Plan - Risk Mitigation in a Mega-City

1. The İstanbul Earthquake Master Plan - Risk Mitigation in a Mega-City Mesut PektaşDeputy Secretary General

2. Istanbul was 1 million populated city in 1955; but it is more than 10 million populated Mega-City in 2004

3. !..? Authorities in the city are carrying on their works to complete their preparations to reduce the damages and destruction of expected major earthquake

4. AKOM IMM Deputy Secretary General AKOM DIRECTORATE(Fire-brigade Manager) LEGAL ADVISORS AKOM SECRETARY GENERAL (Head of Fire-brigade Directorate) FIRE BRIGADEDEP. HEALTH DEP. TRANS PORTATION DEP. ENTERP. DEP. HEAD DEFENCE SECRETARY DIR. OF TECHNICAL AFFAIRS SOIL & EARTH. RES. DEP. DIR. OF FOREIGN RELATIONS İGDAŞ İSKİ

5. Microzonation work including geological and geophysical investigations completed with the assistance ofJapanese JICA organization in 2002. Project Studies

6. Damage estimations of the Microzoning Project(for a M=7.5 ~20 km far earthquake); • 70,000 death (0.8%) • 5,000 totally collapsed buildings • 60,000 heavily damaged buildings • 120,000 severely injured • 2,000,000 temporarily homeless • 1600 damage points on water supply system • 13 damage points on natural gas lines and 29,000 damaged service boxes • Probability of falling of 20 bridges • 60 ± 20 billion US$ loss • !...!...!...

7. EARTHQUAKE MASTER PLAN FOR İSTANBUL Prepared by Bosphorous University İstanbul Technical University Middle East Technical University Yıldız Technical University For İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality

8. Greater City Municipality Governorate Local Municipalities Institutions Enterprises NGOs EMPI is essentially a social contract between identifying responsibilities, commitments, and methods of supervisory functions

9. EMPI • The purpose of EMPI is not to retrofit all buildings but to enhance safety and total quality of life in İstanbul. • EMPI is an endless process; yet has its short and medium-term targets. • EMPI not only aims to reduce risks in existing urban environment but to avoid vulnerabilities in the formation of new urban environment. • EMPI will lead Urban Development Projects and Local Transformation Programs

10. LIKELY CONTRUBITIONS OF EMPI besides EQ safety • RISK SECTORS: are areas of causal relations on specific risks. • CONTINGENCY PLAN: the overall plan of actions to coordinate all risks, actors, and interrelate responsible bodies with protocols drawn between them. • EMERGENCY FACILITIES: Propety and facilities that saving and protection services have to rely on. • REHABILITATION AREAS: High risk areas to be managed(in terms ofpublic participation, building stock, infrastructure, etc.) for the reduction of risks by various measures (rearrangement, density reduction, retrofilling, removals, etc.) • ACTION PLANNING: methods of immediate intervention in rehabilitation areas to incorporate property owners and inhabitants, with special public powers to synchronize resorces and development. • PROJECT PACKAGES: work to be independently fulfilled by third parties subject to tender aggrements.

11. E M P I • RISK SECTORS • Infrastructural • Systems • Building Stock • Dangerous Uses • Emergency Uses • Special Areas • LOCAL ACTION • PROGRAMS • Physical • Transformation • Density Reduction • Retrofitting of Buildings • Community • Organisation • Investment Programs • SUPPORT - RESEARCH • Public Relations • Finance Resources • Legal Arrangements • Administrative Alternatives • Info Engineering • Scientific/Technical • Research EMPI COMPONENTS

12. BÜYÜKÇEKMECE BAYRAMPAŞA GÜNGÖREN ZEYTİNBURNU BAHÇELİEVLER EMİNÖNÜ AVCILAR FATİH BAKIRKÖY ADALAR PRIORITY of DISTRICTS

13. RISKS IN URBAN ENVIRONMENT • Population Density • Means of Access and Removals (roads, carparks, traffic) • Environmental Impacts of Building Collapse • Site and Building Features • Microzonation properties of location

14. RISKS IN BUILDING STOCK • Assessment of seismic vulnerability of existing building stock in İstanbul (likely to collapse in the Scenario EQ~50.000 buildings) • Street Survey, Preliminary Assessment, Detailed Assessment • Ground conditions, Age of buildings, Construction type and quality, • Retrofitting methods, legal and administrative arrangements etc.

15. RISKS IN OPEN AREAS • Risks of Deficiency • Size, location and contiguity • Emergency and ordinary uses RISKS IN INFRASTRUCTURE • Risks in existing road system and accessibility • Emergency use of the road system and infrastructures • Emergency facilities and the Road System • Routing, networking and nodes in infrastructures

16. DANGEROUS USES • Locational risks of inventory • Levels of concentration • Likely affects of neighbouring facilities • Waste management and responsibilities • Management transparencies

17. SPECIAL RISK AREAS • Down-stream zones of existing Dams • Potential liquefaction and landslide zones in built areas • The seashore strip SPECIAL BUILDINGS • Historical and cultural buildings

18. EMERGENCY FACILITIES • Hospitals • Schools / Dormitories • Fire Stations • Police Stations • Bakeries • Public Administration Buildings • Banks, etc. • Open Areas • Storage Facilities • Pools of Emergency vehicles • Vacant Facilities

19. RISKS IN LOSS OF PRODUCTIVITY • Seismic sensivity of industrial enterprises • Basic and complementary industrial entities • Labor intensive and import/export dependent industries • Retrofitting, Early Warning, Relocation capabilities • Allowance for supervision

20. ORGANIZATIONAL RISKS • Organizational and Administrative change requirements for risk management • Deficiencies in the training of personnel • Need for the enpowerement of Administrations EXTERNAL RISKS • Macro-Accidents, technological flows • Extreme climatic conditions • Avoidance of Terrorism / sabotage / organised actions for inflicting damages

21. SCENARIO-BASED RISKS • URBAN SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE (Search and rescue services, Emergency access and storage facilities, Accomodation and daily support provisions) • ADEQUACY OF EMERGENCY FACILITIES (Location and capacities, Vulnerabilities of damages, Access, alternatives in service capacities) • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAPACITIES OF ADMINISTRATIONS (Emergency equipment / vehicles availability, Trained personnel, Communications means, Capacity of instant decision making and action, Capacities to coordinate voluntary labour and resources)

22. LOCAL ACTION PLANNING ANDREHABILITATION PROGRAMS • Designation of High Risk Areas • Local Surveys (Physical, Social, Natural Conditions) • Evaluations and Rehabilitation Planning • Project Development and Organizational Measures • Project and Resources Management • Implementation (infrastructures, retrofitting, redevelopment, removals, etc.)

23. PROCUREMENT OF RESOURCES • Private property owners / Saving and Debt capacities • Institutional Resources • Extending the Obligatory EQ Insurance Pool • Allocation of resources for mitigation • Public Resources Budget allocations, Local Authority allocations

24. PROCUREMENT OF RESOURCES • New Methods of Procurement • tourism / culture / sports / recrecreational sector contributions • transit traffic • large-scale project development • External Resources • International funding • European resources (Dev. Bank, etc.) • Donations / Credits by countries

25. NGO s The popular and political support for the Master Plan will be facilitated through close cooperation with NGOs, the media, and the economic sector. Relations with each of these parties must be enhanced so that local government and central administration support can be received.

27. First of all it should be recognized that the more successful the pre-earthquake plans and their implementations are, the lower will be the financial burden after the earthquake. Moreover, the allocation of funds before an earthquake occurs is certainly needed for humane reasons, and also technically easier.

28. Thank you for your kind attentionwww.ibb.gov.tr