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Caminìa

This document outlines the Caminìa model, a mathematical programming tool designed for analyzing agricultural markets, particularly focusing on wheat in a spatial, partial equilibrium context. It incorporates 19 countries/regions and operates under perfect competition in both domestic and international markets. The base model uses 1994 as a reference year, analyzing linear demand, supply functions, and various policy implications like EU and US compensatory payments. The model is coded in GAMS and solved recursively, contributing to simulations for future agricultural policies and trade agreements.

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Caminìa

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  1. Caminìa

  2. Caminìa, the basic structure mathematical programming model  spatial  partial equilibrium  one homogeneous commodity: wheat  exogenous exchange rates  perfect competition prevails both on domestic and international markets  19 countries/regions

  3. Caminìa, the basic structure “base” model time reference: 1994  domestic markets represented through linear demand, supply and stock release functions producer prices are farm gate prices consumer prices are net prices to consumer  domestic transportation and handling costs  international transportation and handling costs

  4. Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)  EU compensatory payments: fully decoupled  US deficiency payments: fully decoupled  EU set aside % as its “rotational equivalent”  minimum guaranteed prices in the EU and the US  EU “export restitutions” endogenously determined

  5. Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)  US EEP export subsidies assumed to be paid in cash and to be unconstrained  EU “variable levies” endogenously determined  Japan’s JFA represented as an import quota  NAFTA  bilateral agreements

  6. Caminìa, solver and calibration Written in GAMS, solved recursively to overcome the difficulties due to the high non-linearity of the constraints Average percent difference, in absolute values, between observed and “predicted” values is equal to2.6%for quantities produced and3.1%for quantities consumed

  7. Caminìa, the simulations Base 2001, 2002 and 2005  expected changes in demand (population, per capita income)  expected changes in supply (yields)  FAIR Act  implementation of 1992 Cap reform

  8. Caminìa, the simulations 1994 GATT Agreement on agriculture:  domestic support commitments: irrelevant  tariff levels: country schedules, unless applied tariffs were lower than binding ones  EU tariff protection: variable levy  Japan import quota: adjusted  TRQs  export competition commitments individually explicitly modeled  US export subsidies: maximizing exports

  9. Caminìa, the simulations Agenda 2000  intervention price 1994119.19 2001 110.25 (-7.5%) 2002 & 2005 101.31 (- 15%)

  10. Caminìa: where does it come from? Where is it now? Where is it going? Where does Caminia come from? - Anania and McCalla, AJAE, 1991 - Anania, Bohman and Carter, AJAE, 1992 - Solagral, 1998 Where is it now? Anania, 2001 Where is it going? more runs of current version (EU enlargement, $/Euro exchange rate sensitivity multi-product: cereals, meats and dairy

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