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The Cancun Paradox

The Cancun Paradox. and the Future of Climate Institutions. February 22nd, 2011 Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies - KUL. René Audet Centre d’étude du développement durable. The Copenhagen Accord. 2009 (Copenhague). 2005 (Montréal). 2008 (Poznań). 2006 (Nairobi).

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The Cancun Paradox

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  1. The Cancun Paradox and the Future of Climate Institutions February 22nd, 2011 Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies - KUL René Audet Centre d’étude du développement durable

  2. The Copenhagen Accord 2009 (Copenhague) 2005 (Montréal) 2008 (Poznań) 2006 (Nairobi) 2007 (Bali) Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol Negotiating mandates (two-tracks) Long term coop action Exit negotiating mandate (Political declaration) CPH Accord

  3. The Cancun Agreements 2009 (Copenhague) 2010 (Cancun) 2005 (Montréal) 2008 (Poznań) 2006 (Nairobi) 2007 (Bali) Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol Negotiating mandates (two-tracks) Long term coop action Operationalized in the negotiating mandate CPH Agreement

  4. The Semantics of « Balance » Does the semantics of balance can help to predict a deal?

  5. The Semantics of « Balance » A balanced outcome should demonstrate sufficient level of advancement in the KP track

  6. The Semantics of « Balance » We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for mitigation actions A balanced outcome should demonstrate sufficient level of advancement in the KP track

  7. The Semantics of « Balance » We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for mitigation actions A balanced outcome should demonstrate sufficient level of advancement in the KP track Balance between specific issues (ex: adaptation/mitigation in finance)

  8. The Semantics of « Balance » We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for mitigation actions A balanced outcome should demonstrate sufficient level of advancement in the KP track Balance between specific issues (ex: adaptation/mitigation in finance) Balance between the needs of future and present generation

  9. The Semantics of « Balance » We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for mitigation actions A balanced outcome should demonstrate sufficient level of advancement in the KP track Balance between specific issues (ex: adaptation/mitigation in finance) Balance between the needs of future and present generation Balance between human needs and « Mother Earth’ capacities

  10. Old and New Multilateralism Cancun and the redefinition of multilateralism…

  11. Old and New Multilateralism Old – Club Model Closed negotiations among great powers Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan), the Quads (Triads + Canada), etc. The CPH Accord as a Club model Accord?

  12. Old and New Multilateralism Old – Club Model Closed negotiations among great powers Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan), the Quads (Triads + Canada), etc. The CPH Accord as a Club model Accord? New – Dialogue Model Coalitions as legitimate political representatives Ex: the G20, G33, Coton4, Africa Group, LDC Group, etc. in the WTO and UNFCCC The role of the Cartagena Dialogue in Cancun.

  13. Conclusion The Copenhagen Accord will structure future climate negotiations and institutions more than is admitted. The Cancun Agreements go as far as possible in the contexte of competing semantics of balance New multilateralism and Cartagena Dialogue important for the next big trade-off… What about the balance between political will and science-based decisions?

  14. Bedankt!

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