Positive Experiences with the Earthquakes Predictability Special presentation at the Symposium Hornická Příbram 2013 Příbram 16.10.2013 Pavel Kalenda1, Libor Neumann2, Dimitar Ouzounov3, Václav Procházka4 1 ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i. 2 ANECT Praha a.s. 3 Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA, 4 Česká geologie, o.s.
Content1) Introduction2) Prediction of the time window3) Prediction of the focal area4) Prediction of the magnitude5) Conclusion
Chapter 1Introduction • Earthquake (EQ) prediction has 6 (5) independent parameters: • Time of the mainshock • The length of time window • Centerof the focal area • Radius of the focal area • Minimum of magnitude • Magnitude range (not necessary if 10)
Chapter 2Prediction of time - asperity model a – proportional limit b – upper yield limit c – lower yield limit d – failure limit (σy, εy) – deformation on the proportional limit σd – tensile strength εd - tensibility
Anomalous periods and predicted windows of possible magnitudebefore Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, Aug.12,2012 What is the length of the nucleation phase for M 7.7 EQ?
Anomalous periods and predicted windows of possible magnitudebefore Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, Aug.12,2012 What is the length of the nucleation phase for M 7.7 EQ? All of anomalies since June 2012 could be connected with Okhotsk Sea EQ
Anomalous periods and predicted windows of possible magnitudebefore Okhotsk Sea M 7.7 EQ, Aug.12,2012 Indonesian EQ M 7.2 could be called „foreshock“ of Sumatra M 8.6 mainshock
Typical anomaly at pendulum in cave No.13C in Moravian Karstbefore Kurily EQ M 7.3, Nov.24, 2008 Diurnal period of a noise Beginning of nucleation period sensus stricto
Prediction based on the detection of anomalous stress – Okhotsk Sea August 14, 2012 mb=7.7 – oficially predicted Beginning of nucleation phase s.s. Diurnal period of noise
Typical anomalies of the tilt at pendulum in Ida minebefore Chile EQ, February 27, 2010, M=8.8 and „Indonesian“ EQs Main shock Beginning of nucleation phase s.l.
Temporal and spatial characteristics for the earthquake alert before M7.3Honshu 2012 (Ouzounov et al, 2013) Spatial allocation 12.07.2012 M7.3Honshu ALERT 12.11.2012 -14 days 14 days Temporal allocation
Temporal and spatial characteristics for the earthquake alert before M7.1 Banda sea 2012 (Ouzounov et al, 2013) Spatial allocation Earthquake ALERT 12.03.2012 -7 days 12.10.2012 M7.1 Banda Sea 7 days Temporal allocation
Conclusion • The correct and full prediction of EQs (area, time window and magnitude) is not an easy task. For this prediction as many different methods covered the whole Earthas possible must be used . • None of these method should be used alone. • The prediction of the strongest EQs is a global task. The precursors could be observed everywhere and many days (M7) or even months (M9) before the mainshock. • The EQ prediction is POSSIBLE. It is a real scientific task.