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Executive Board meeting 27 September 2006

Executive Board meeting 27 September 2006. Mainland GDP Seasonally adjusted, annualised growth on previous half year. Per cent. Source: Statistics Norway. Unemployed Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 1990 – August 2006. Registered unemployed and

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Executive Board meeting 27 September 2006

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  1. Executive Board meeting27 September 2006

  2. Mainland GDPSeasonally adjusted, annualised growth on previous half year. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway

  3. UnemployedPercentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 1990 – August 2006 Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

  4. Number employedFigures from LFS1). In thousands. Monthly figures. January 1999 – June 2006 1) The restructuring of the LFS has resulted in a break in the time series between 2005 and 2006. Source: Statistics Norway

  5. Capacity utilisation - regional network Share ofenterprises that will find it difficult to accommodate a rise in demand. Per cent Source: Norges Bank

  6. Order stocks and new orders in manufacturingIndex. 1995 = 100. 1993 Q1 - 2006 Q2 New orders Order stocks Source: Statistics Norway

  7. Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas activitiesAssumed and actual investment. In billions of NOK 2006 2005 2007 2004 2003 2002 Previous year Same year Final figures Source: Statistics Norway

  8. Credit growth12-month change. Per cent. January 2000 - July 2006 (C3 to June) Total credit enterprises(C3) Domestic credit enterprises (C2) Domestic credit to households (C2) Source: Norges Bank

  9. Housing market January 2001 – August 2006 (housing starts to June) Housing starts (number of 1000s in the last 12 months) House prices (NEF) (12-month rise. Per cent) Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EFF), ECON and Finn.no

  10. CPI-ATE 1)Total and by supplier sector2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 2/06. 12-month change. Per cent. July 2003 – August 2006 Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1)CPI-ATE adjusted for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. 2) Norges Bank's calculations. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  11. Different indicators of inflation12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – August 2006 CPI Weighted median CPI-ATE1) 20 per cent trimmed mean 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. 30% 50% 70% 90% CPI-ATE1)Actual inflation and projections from IR 2/06. 4-quarter change. Per cent. 2004 Q1 - 2009 Q4 Average 12-month rise July-August 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  13. Inflation expectations Economists Employer and employee organisations 5 years ahead 5 years ahead 2 years ahead 2 years ahead 1 year ahead 1 year ahead Source: TNS Gallup

  14. CPI/HICP12-month change. January 1997 – August 2006 US Euro area UK Japan Sweden Sources: Reuters EcoWin and national statistical offices

  15. Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts 2006 2007 Source: Consensus Forecasts

  16. US - Housing market12-month change. 3-month moving average. January 2000 – August 2006 (house prices to July) Price new dwellings Number of housing starts Source: Reuters EcoWin

  17. Oil price Brent Blend and futures pricesDaily figures. USD per barrel. January 2002 - September 2006 22 June (IR 2/06) 25 September 2006 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  18. Metal pricesUSD. Indices, 1 January 2001 = 100. Daily figures.1 January 2001 - 25 September 2006 Copper Nickel Aluminium Zinc Source: Reuters EcoWin

  19. 10-year yield in various countriesPer cent. Weekly figures. Week 1 2003 – Week 38 2006 Norway US UK Germany Sweden Source: Bloomberg

  20. 25 September 2006 IR 2/06 (28 June) Actual and expected key ratesas per IR 2/06 and 25 September 2006 UK Sweden Euro area US Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  21. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2009 I-44 (right-hand scale) Average 1 – 25 September 25 September 06 28 June 06 (IR 2/06) Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  22. Krone exchange rate (I-44)Historical developments and projections from five different Inflation Reports IR 2/04 IR 2/05 IR 1/06 IR 3/05 IR 2/06 1) A rising curve denotes an depreciation of the krone. Source: Norges Bank

  23. Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market expectations regarding the sight deposit rate1)Per cent. 2006 Q3 – 2009 Q4 Baseline scenario IR 2/06 Market IR 2/06 Market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate Market 25 September 2006 1) Derived from estimated forward rates. The sight deposit rate was reduced by a credit risk premium and technical difference of 0.20 percentage point. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 12 – 25 September 2006. Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank

  24. Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 2/06 • The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 2¾ - 3¾ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 1 November 2006, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections. • The interest rate may gradually – in small, not too frequent steps – be brought back towards a more normal level.

  25. Executive Board meeting27 September 2006

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