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HUMAN POPULATION. Pg. 75 How does this affect Natural Disasters? ADD 1.) Consider Katrina 1,000 years ago?? 2.) Consider economic losses over time ND pg. 11 fig. 1.6 and table 1.6 NDs increasing? Cost/losses ARE increasing! WHY??? Is it, itself, a potential disaster for the future?

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slide1

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 75

How does this affect Natural Disasters?

ADD

1.) Consider Katrina 1,000 years ago??

2.) Consider economic losses over time

ND pg. 11 fig. 1.6 and table 1.6

NDs increasing?

Cost/losses ARE increasing!

WHY???

Is it, itself, a potential disaster for the future?

HOW????

slide2

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 75

Populations grow exponentially link for general discussion

a) The J-curve and more?

ND pg. 16 fig. 1.11

b) Very slow growth for thousands of years - then a sharp upward shift.

ADD But what about later? More complete picture

c) birth rate does not have to change - death rate falls dramatically. What could cause this?

Related to 1.) tools (1 million ya) 2.) agriculture (8,000 ya) and 3.) medicine (1700s)

slide3

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 75

d) 1810 pop. 1 billion - doubled by 1925 at

2 billion (115 years). 1925-1974 doubled to

4 billion (49 years). by 2000 reached 6 billion

The future?? The bigger it gets the bigger it gets FASTER.

e) think of it in terms of doubling time - it will

take CHANGE THIS 44 years for the world’s population to double at present growth rate of 1.6% per year.

ADDDoubling Time=70DIVIDED BY (% growth rate/year)

slide4

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 75

In general, there are TWO views on human population

1) Too many people

2) Not enough people

Hmmmm - let’s investigate these viewpoints.

slide5

Pg. 76

1) Too Many

a) The J curve points out that earth’s population

will double every 50 years (or less!).

With current birth/death rates

b) That puts 8 billion on earth in early 2000s

and 16 billion by mid to later 2000.

***The issue of too many people is: RESOURCES

More people strain resources - especially as standard of

living raises worldwide.

What if everyone lived “high on the hog” like us?

Like…CHINA??

This is termed carrying capacityin biological terms.

What might happen if we exceed carrying capacity?

HUMAN POPULATION

slide6

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 76 Too many continued

Resources & Facts

1) Food

a.) 3/4 of a billion already suffer malnutrition

largely due to unequal food distribution

b.) only 11% of Earth’s surface is arable land

this diminished due to….

ADD

1) erosion can’t farm the dirt if it ain’t there

2) expansion are ya going to live on it or grow on it?

3) salinization irrigation water has salts. Arid areas

H2O evaps. leaves behind salts=dead crops

From 1945-1990 3 billion acres (China and India combined)

have been degraded.

slide7

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 76 Too many continued

Resources & Facts

2) Water

a) At present 31 countries (8% world pop.) have chronic water shortages.

b) Due to improper management (sewage), unequal distribution (high pop. Vs. low pop.), contamination (keeping clean and cleaning up).

c) Estimates suggest by 2025 35% world pop. affected

WHY?? Many of those countries cannot pay the cost for water (desalinization). Global financial inequity.

slide8

HUMAN POPULATION

  • Pg. 76-77
  • Clean air-more people=more production=more pollution.
    • OK…potentially could we do things differently
  • Trash – More people= more trash…where to put
    • the piles!
  • 5) Deforestation-more people=more demand for
    • lumber/agriculture=less forest
    • Consider link to greenhouse effect?
  • Energy Resources-more people=more demand for energy
  • fossil fuels are being used faster than they are
  • being created
slide9

HUMAN POPULATION

  • Pg. 77
  • Resources used in technology and consumer
    • products - including homes, hospitals, schools, etc.
  • (sort of a composite of the above)
  • Species extinctions as habitat is removed or altered
    • SO, what’s the problem if a few species go extinct?
  • Unequal distribution of resources is cited as an
    • issue - can that affect political stability worldwide?
  • Global jealousy?
  • Political history?
  • Jobs and money - will there be enough for everyone?
    • Sure. The question is at what level/standard of living.
    • **Could Earth sustain a global population ALL living
    • like we do?
slide10

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 77

U.S. population is expected to peak in 2028 and then

decline - So we don’t have a problem - or do we.

Does the U.S. add to world population issues/concern?

**A LOOK at the Economic burden on the world ecological

system**

3 things dictate the economic burden

1) Population size

2) Consumption

3) Technology used to provide goods

and services-medicine, transportation.

slide11

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 78

THE U.S. IS THE LARGEST CONSUMER IN THE WORLD

3 million Americans = 90 million people from

India (resources/year) a factor of 30!!!

As standard of living is raised in other nations resource

use per person will rise.

Developed and developing nations want more STUFF

Such as… coffee/tea and soda, meat, wood, fruit.

POSSIBLE SCENARIO (can you think of others?)

This leads to deforestation generally of rainforest.

POSITIVE FEEDBACK (positive???)

Poor soils - land used up in short time - new areas turned

to crop land-poor soils-land used up…..

slide12

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 78

ONE RESULT

Poor nations trade products for money.

Is that a DEAL?

NO-

Consumers do not pay for the environmental damage to the ecosystems.

Sustainability - consumers need to use less and pay more.

WHY???

slide13

HUMAN POPULATION

  • Pg. 78
  • THE SECOND IDEA OF HUMAN POPULATION IS THAT
  • THERE ARE TOO FEW PEOPLE.
  • TOO FEW PEOPLE
  • Information provided by the Population Research Institute
  • 1) This group believes the population in NOT expanding as
    • fast as predicted.
  • 2) They cite shrinking family size.
  • Census Bureau world fertility rate is 2.9 children per
  • woman. This is lowest level ever. In 1985 it was 4.9.
  • Mmmm…?
  • Developed nations have lowest fertility rate. Europe
    • especially low at 1.3 children per woman.
  • Germany and Japan offer financial incentives for more
  • children.
slide14

HUMAN POPULATION

ADD

Another way to look at it. If you calculate

a.) 6 billion people (todays pop.)

b.) Each get 3 x1 foot space

c.) the entire world population fits in 26mi2?

So the world is mostly uninhabited. Right?

AGREE

DISAGREE

STRONGLY DISAGREE

STRONGLY AGREE

slide15

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 79

WHY??

Economies based on growth.

Countries with low growth rates fear:

a) labor shortages reducing production of goods

b) housing market will stagnate/real estate sales slow

c) above affect whole economy

slide16

HUMAN POPULATION

  • Pg. 79
  • Believe world population will peak at 2030 and then
    • continually decline. But….
  • ADD POPULATION DENSITY RELATED ISSUES
  • A) Intraspecies Competition: members of the same species
  • compete for resources
  • reindeer example and gypsy moth example
    • Food resource issue
  • B) Interspecies Competition: two species compete for
  • resources
  • Paramecia species cultivation (alone vs. together)
  • better competitior?
  • Which better represents concerns for human populations?
  • WHY?
slide17

HUMAN POPULATION

Pg. 79

Another Issue - Population “control” can lead to loss of

freedom - genocide in some cases.

a) freedom to choose family size

example: China

b) enforced sterilization of specific groups

example: Peru (target is poor rural women

which generally are Native Indians)

POINT: Opens the door to ethically/morally “dicey” policy?

slide18

HUMAN POPULATION

CASE HISTORY

Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

Volcanic island west of Chile

Not the greatest to begin with

high temp and humidty

no permanent rivers

poorly drained, marginal soils

Early 5th century seafaring Polynesians settled here.

Brought with them

1) chickens

2) rats

3) food plants (only yams could survive harsh climate)

Source: http://www.unmuseum.org/easteri.htm

slide19

HUMAN POPULATION

CASE HISTORY

Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

Developed a complex

social system

Customs include competitions

building huge statues (moai)

up to 20 ft. high

Pop. peaked at about 7,000, moai 600 with about 300 more being built in quarries.

Civilization began to decline rapidly and savagely

Source: http://www.unmuseum.org/easteri.htm

slide20

HUMAN POPULATION

CASE HISTORY

Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

Easter Sunday, 5 April 1722 first European contact, Dutch

Found 2,000 people living in caves in a primitive state

These remnants were engaged in nearly constant warfare

Practicing cannibalism

WHAT HAPPENED????

Source: http://www.unmuseum.org/easteri.htm

slide21

HUMAN POPULATION

  • CASE HISTORY
  • Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
  • Transporting the moai used up trees and resources.
  • With no trees…
  • Soil erosion increased and farming became more difficult
  • b) Homes could not be built
  • c) No fuel
  • d) No transportation (canoes) to leave or to use for fishing.
  • RESULTS: statue based religion disintegrated, clans
  • were reduced to warfare and cannibalism to survive
  • HOW IS THIS LIKE EARTH?
slide22

HUMAN POPULATION

QUIZ

1.) Which of the following best describes how populations

increase exponentially?

+

+

B

A

POP.

POP.

-

-

- TIME +

- TIME +

+

C

POP.

-

- TIME +

slide23

QUIZ

HUMAN POPULATION

2.) Which part of the curve represents carrying capacity?

C

B

A

slide24

HUMAN POPULATION

QUIZ

  • 3.) What evidence is used to support the view that there
  • are not enough people on the planet?
  • a) exponential growth
  • b) that the current population only takes up about 26 mi2
  • c) first part of human history saw little population growth
  • d) family size is increasing
  • 4.) What evidence is NOT used to support the view that
  • there are too many people?
  • Shrinking family size
  • b) Only 11% of the Earth’s surface is arable (farmable)
  • c) Resources are also part of the equation
  • d) There already exists a significant water shortage
slide25

HUMAN POPULATION

QUIZ

  • 5.) Which BEST describes what the Reindeer case history
  • implies might happen to human populations?
  • Populations reach carrying capacity and then crash
  • b) Populations reach carrying capacity and then increase
  • c) Populations reach carrying capacity and then fluctuate
  • d) Populations reach carrying capacity and then remain
  • constant
  • 6) The people/island/moai/Dutch in the Rapa Nui
  • (Easter Island) case history each represent what?
slide26

HUMAN POPULATION

QUIZ

  • 7.) The idea of sustainability suggests that consumers
  • should pay…
  • a) More to fix increasing environmental problems caused by
    • production
  • b) The same to fix the constant environmental problems
  • caused by production
  • c) Less to fix the decreasing environmental problems caused
  • by production
slide27

HUMAN POPULATION

QUIZ

  • 8.) In the graph below what could best explain the portion
  • labeled C?
  • Increase in fertility
  • b) Decreae in mortality
  • c) Introduction of predator species
  • d) disease