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ELITE WEATHER ENTERPRISES. Let Us Introduce Ourselves. We are comprised of Penn State Graduates whom majored in Meteorology Combined total of 15 years of forecasting experience Company experience at Leslie’s Pool Supplies Link between Meteorology and Business. Jacqueline Layer.

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ELITE WEATHER

ENTERPRISES


Let Us Introduce Ourselves

  • We are comprised of Penn State Graduates whom majored in Meteorology

  • Combined total of 15 years of forecasting experience

  • Company experience at Leslie’s Pool Supplies

  • Link between Meteorology and Business


JacquelineLayer

  • Chief Editor at Elite Weather Enterprises

  • Interned at WTAJ TV in Altoona as a Weather Forecaster

  • Active member of Penn State Campus Weather Service

  • Member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and National Weather Association (NWA)

  • Actively involved in Penn State THON Dance Marathon


Thomas Lutz

  • Program Director at Elite Weather Enterprises

  • Active member of Penn State Campus Weather Service

  • Member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and National Weather Association (NWA)

  • Assistant Coach of Penn State Hazleton Soccer Team


BreHawras

  • Operations Manager at Elite Weather Enterprises

  • Active member of Penn State Campus Weather Service

  • Member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and National Weather Association (NWA)


Sean Gauslin

  • Business Consultant at Elite Weather Enterprises

  • Former Employee of Leslie’s Pool Supplies

  • Active member of Penn State Campus Weather Service

  • Member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)


Kyle Gibson

  • Forecast Analyst at Elite Weather Enterprises

  • Active member of Penn State Campus Weather Service

  • Member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and National Weather Association (NWA)

  • Active Member of the Penn State Golf Club


What we know about Leslie’s and the industry

  • $5 billion dollar industry with Leslie’s as main provider

  • Leslie’s total earnings is now exceeding $500 million a year

  • Leslies’ competitors are a small part of the industry generally “Mom and Pop” stores with limited stock

  • Leslie’s also has a successful online store and mailing catalog that provides an extra 30,000 items to their customers


Location….Location

  • Leslie’s has 622 stores in 35 states from New Hampshire and Michigan, all the way to Northern California.

  • Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas have the most stores.

  • Store placement based on climate and population

  • It is expected that millions of pools will be popping up in these locations over the next several years.


Two important questions EWE will answer

  • How Can our index save Leslie’s Money?

    • Shipping and Distribution

    • Labor Costs

  • How can our Index Make Leslie’s Money?

    • Sales forecast


Saving Money through Distribution and Shipping

  • Distribution centers in New Jersey, California, Kentucky, Texas, and Florida.

  • Without distribution companies would not be able to survive

  • Shipping and distribution is highly dependent on weather variables, weather variables that our Index accounts for

  • Our index will be able to provide key information for shipping and distribution


Shipping costs

  • Expenses

  • Possible savings

  • $61,200,000 on operating expenses

  • 10% on shipping and distribution

  • Our index could save Leslie’s potentially 1% of their shipping costs or even more

  • $612,000

  • Per year, number can fluctuate


Labor Costs

  • Leslie’s spent $61,200,000 on labor in 2009 and most likely spends around that if not more as their store size increases

  • With the use of our index, store managers around the country can better determine the amount of labor needed for the next 5 days.


A Little Here & There Adds Up

  • With our index in place and store managers making the correct labor adjustments Leslie’s could save tens of thousands of dollars per year.

  • 1 store saving an additional $30 in one day, multiply this by multiple stores and dozens of days you get massive savings


1 vs. 5

  • Philosophy of our company vs. another

  • Average salaries of meteorologists employed by the federal government is over $93,000

  • Our index costs less (explained in contract)


Making Money

  • Knowing where to ship products based on an increase in customers can be extremely difficult

  • Our index will do this for you and provide Leslie’s with the knowledge of where sales should increase based on forecasts and weather variables.

  • Sales forecast


Sales Forecast

  • Once Leslie’s knows where sales are likely to spike upward Leslie’s can ship accordingly

  • More Customers + More Product = Increased Sales and Revenue

  • It’s a simple idea but hard to do without help


Savings Summary

  • Expenses Potential Savings per Year

  • Shipping and Distribution Savings $612,000

  • Labor $30,000-$100,000

  • Index vs. Full Time Meteorologist $20,000-$50,000

  • Total Potential Savings $662,000-$762,000


What is a Weather Index?

  • A way to compress large amounts of data into an easy-to-read format that allows for rapid decision-making

  • Numerical or graphical


Importance of Weather Indexes

  • Consolidate weather variables into a easy-to-read scale for the public or your company

  • Allows people to know what they should expect

  • Will help your company make risky decisions with more ease

  • You will be able to save thousands of dollars


Sample Weather Indexes

  • Weather indexes are used frequently and are beneficial in saving people’s lives

  • Examples include the Weather Channel’s Tor Con index, Wind Chill index, UV index


Improvements in Forecasting

  • Throughout the years meteorological forecasting has improved since the 1970s.

  • The chart below shows the National Hurricane Center’s average forecast errors for Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.

  • In 1970, average error for 24 hours out was 120 miles.

  • In 2010, average error for 24 hours out has improved to just over 50 miles.


Improved Hurricane forecasting

  • 30% of your stores are located in Florida and Texas

  • These areas are hurricane prone but better forecast will allow you to save money if one strikes

  • labor savings- giving employees off when they are not needed

  • Move stock around where its needed obviously not Florida or Texas

  • Get Stores prepared for onset of hurricane



  • Displays average error from the high and low temperature that was forecast

  • Huge strides have been made in the last 30 years

  • 1970 the average error was about 1.85 °C

  • 2000 the average error was about 1.41 °C

  • 1980 you can see a huge dip due to the advancement of computer models and meteorologists becoming better educated


Forecast that was forecastModel Improvements

  • NAM (North American Mesoscale Model)- solves forecast equations at grid point to come up with forecast

  • Resolution has improved from 24 KM to 4 KM

  • More data going into the model produces a more trustworthy forecast

  • The more grid points allows us to see a better overview of the weather


Ensemble Models Improvements that was forecast

  • Allow for any changes or uncertainty in the forecast

  • This allows for a range of possibilities

  • The most likely outcome lies right down the middle

  • Gives meteorologists a higher confidence if all the solutions are down the center


Overall Improvement and Skill to Produce that was forecastForecast

  • The computer models have their limit, so as meteorologists we will need interpret the data and come up with a trustworthy forecast

  • Our studies at Penn State have allowed us to become the most dependable and reliable meteorologists

  • With computer models continuing to improve and able to perform more tasks the indexes we develop will become more accurate


  • The “Jump Right that was forecastInDEX” will provide the company with two color-coded maps

  • The first map received by the company will be a five day rating of the swim conditions.

  • The second map will be an average for the next 30 days.

  • The company will have the option to get an index for a specific region of their choice.


Quick and Efficient Decisions that was forecast!

  • Supplies to order

  • Work-hours

  • Inventory

  • Advertising for a region

  • Long term events

The Variables

  • Local Temperature

  • Population Density Per Store

  • Precipitation

  • Temperature departure from normal

  • Relative Humidity

  • Amount of Sunshine

  • Average Wind Speed


Maximum temperature
Maximum Temperature that was forecast


Precipitation that was forecast


Temperature departure that was forecast

from normal


Relative humidity
Relative Humidity that was forecast


Amount of Sunshine that was forecast

Average Wind Speed


The Five Day Index that was forecast


The 30 Day Index that was forecast


Contract that was forecast

  • There are going to be several offers you can choose from to fit your needs.

  • Before any packages are purchased, a one, two, or four year agreement must be purchased.

  • 1 year agreement--$10,000

  • 2 year agreement--$20,000

  • 4 year agreement--$30,000


Package One that was forecast

5 Day Nationwide Index Forecast


Package One that was forecast

Cost Breakdown

  • Labor: $30,000

  • Technology & Web Development - $5,000

  • Research & Development - $5,000

  • Total Cost - $40,000

  • Leslies would receive the forecast index electronically on a daily basis if this package is chosen.


Package Two that was forecast

5 Day Regional

Index Forecast


Package Two that was forecast

Cost Breakdown

  • Labor: $25,000

  • Technology & Web Development - $5,000

  • Research & Development - $5,000

  • Total Cost - $35,000

  • Leslies would receive the region based forecast index electronically on a daily basis if this package is chosen.


Package Three that was forecast

30 Day Nationwide Index Forecast


Package Three that was forecast

Cost Breakdown

  • Labor: $20,000

  • Technology & Web Development - $5,000

  • Research & Development - $5,000

  • Total Cost - $30,000

  • Leslies would receive the forecast index electronically on a bi-weekly basis if this package is chosen.


Package Four that was forecast

30 Day Regional Index Forecast


Package Four that was forecast

Cost Breakdown

  • Labor: $15,000

  • Technology & Web Development - $5,000

  • Research & Development - $5,000

  • Total Cost - $25,000

  • Leslies would receive the region based forecast index electronically on a bi-weekly basis if this package is chosen.


Package Five that was forecast

5 & 30 Day

Nationwide Index Forecast


Package Five that was forecast

Cost Breakdown

  • Labor: $40,000

  • Technology & Web Development - $5,000

  • Research & Development - $5,000

  • Total Cost - $50,000

  • Leslies would receive the 5 day indexes on a daily basis and the 30 day indexes on a bi-weekly basis if this package is chosen.


Package Six that was forecast

5 & 30 Day

Regional Index Forecast


Package Six that was forecast

Cost Breakdown

  • Labor: $35,000

  • Technology & Web Development - $5,000

  • Research & Development - $5,000

  • Total Cost - $40,000

  • Leslies would receive the 5 day regional index on a daily basis and the 30 day regional index on a bi-weekly basis if this package is chosen.


Package Seven that was forecast

5 & 30 Day National &

Regional Index Forecasts


Package Seven that was forecast

Cost Breakdown

  • Labor: $60,000

  • Technology & Web Development - $8,000

  • Research & Development - $7,000

  • Total Cost - $75,000

  • Leslies would receive the 5 day indexes on a daily basis and the 30 day indexes on a bi-weekly basis if this package is chosen.


Thank You! that was forecast

Any Questions?


SOURCES that was forecast

Australian Government. Mean Modulus Error. Digital image. Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 1 Jan. 2011. Web. 13 Jan. 2012.

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=mean+modulus+temperature&

"Atmospheric Scientists." U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Web. 31 Jan. 2012. <http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos051.htm>.

"ForecastAdvisor Weather Forecast Accuracy Blog: Accuracy of Temperature Forecasts." Weather Forecast and Weather Forecast Accuracy for Your City. Web. 21 Jan. 2012. <http://www.forecastadvisor.com/blog/2006/09/24/accuracy-of-temperature-forecasts/>.

Leslie’s Poolmart Inc. Annual Financial Report

"National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification." National Hurricane Center. Web. 31 Jan. 2012. <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml>.

"Spas & Hot Tubs." Leslie's Swimming Pool Supplies, the World Leader in Residential and Commercial Pool Supplies. Web. 22 Jan. 2012. <http://www.lesliespool.com/Home/Spas-and-Hot-Tubs.html>.

"Summer Weather Safety Week." National Weather Service - Central Region Headquarters Home Page. Web. 23 Jan. 2012. <http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=summerweathersafetyweek>.


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