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An Update on the Connecticut Economy

An Update on the Connecticut Economy. Dr. Steven P. Lanza Executive Editor, The Connecticut Economy CREUES Commercial Real Estate Conference November 9, 2010. IS THE US ECONOMY WALLOWING IN RECESSION…. Indexed GDP Peak = 100. Pre-1973 Recessions. 1973 & Later Recessions.

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An Update on the Connecticut Economy

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  1. An Update on the Connecticut Economy

    Dr. Steven P. Lanza Executive Editor, The Connecticut Economy CREUES Commercial Real Estate Conference November 9, 2010
  2. IS THE US ECONOMY WALLOWING IN RECESSION…. Indexed GDP Peak = 100 Pre-1973 Recessions 1973 & Later Recessions Current Recession
  3. …OR SIMPLY FACING AN UNEXCEPTIONAL REBOUND FOLLOWING AN EXTRAORDINARY DECLINE? Indexed GDP Trough = 100 Pre-1973 Recessions Current Recession 1973 & Later Recessions
  4. THIS “BIG CHILL” HAD A PREQUEL 2001 Recession Current Recession GDP % Growth Quarters of Recovery
  5. RECESSION LEAVES A YAWNING OUTPUT GAP Average: 6.3% Trillions $2005
  6. BUT LITTLE APPETITE FOR MORE STIMULUS Growth in Federal Deficit
  7. CONSUMERS ARE UNLEASING SPENDING AS THEY REIN IN DEBT 3.9%/YR 2.4%/YR Retail Sales Debt Service as Percent of Income
  8. HOUSING COULD SURPRISE TO THE UPSIDE + 2 Million Housing Starts in Thousands, SAAR Average: 1959-2000 -2.2 Million
  9. BUSINESSES MAY HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO HIRE +1.9%/YR in Q3 +6.1%/YR -1.8%/YR in Q2 Worker Output per Hour +1.3%/YR
  10. HARTFORD WEATHERS STORM COMPARATIVELY WELL Nonfarm Jobs: Peak =100 Stamford Hartford Connecticut U.S.
  11. FINANCE STILL SHAKY Connecticut Finance Jobs: Peak =100 Stamford U.S. Hartford
  12. MANUFACTURING ON SLIGHTLY FIRMER GROUND Stamford Connecticut Hartford U.S.
  13. STILL, A MURKY OUTLOOK FOR CONNECTICUT JOBS ScenarioTrough/11 Growth 2% GDP300 3% GDP 12,500 4% GDP24,700 Thousands 4% GDP 3% GDP 2% GDP
  14. +27,000/YR +1,000/YR
  15. CT Ranks #10 in self employment in 2008 2:7 Ratio for CT 1:4 Ratio for US +4.7%/YR
  16. 1:5 Ratio CT 1:6 Ratio US
  17. Litchfield + Fairfield Cos. State Population 30% State Self-employed 40% 1:2 3:8
  18. CONNECTICUT HAS HIGH MANUFACTURING WAGES ANDSALARIES Hourly Wage of Production Workers
  19. 1990s: self-employment jobs stabilized but earnings closed gap 2000s: self-employment jobs surged but earnings plateaued
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