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Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department o PowerPoint Presentation
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Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Phil Klotzbach and William Gray Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Climate Diagnostics Workshop October 25, 2005 Outline 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Summary Activity-Enhancing Features

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Reasons for the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

Phil Klotzbach and William Gray

Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Climate Diagnostics Workshop

October 25, 2005

slide2

Outline

  • 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Summary
  • Activity-Enhancing Features
  • Westward Track-Enhancing Features
  • Conclusions
slide3

Outline

  • 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Summary
  • Activity-Enhancing Features
  • Westward Track-Enhancing Features
  • Conclusions
slide6

2004 Storm Tracks

Figure taken from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2004atl.gif

slide7

2005 Storm Tracks

Figure taken from http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

slide10

Outline

  • 2004 Atlantic Basin Statistics
  • Activity-Enhancing Features
  • Westward Track-Enhancing Features
  • Conclusions
slide12

?

1860 1900 1940 1980 2020

Adapted from Goldenberg et al. 2001

slide14

August-September 2004 V Anomalies

Anomalous Northerlies

200 mb

Anomalous Southerlies

850 mb

genesis parameter gp definition
Genesis Parameter (GP) Definition

GP = ΔV + U850mb + SSTA

Where:

ΔV = 850 mb – 200 mb average August-September V wind component from (7.5°N – 7.5°S, 20°-45°W)

U850mb = 850 mb average August-September U wind component from (5°-15°N, 20°-60°W)

SSTA = Average August-September sea surface temperature anomaly from (5°-15°N, 20°-60°W)

upper level wind parameter up definition
Upper-Level Wind Parameter (UP) Definition

UP = -ZWA

Where:

ZWA = 200 mb average August-September U wind component from (5°-15°N, 20°-60°W)

slide26

Outline

  • 2004 Atlantic Basin Statistics
  • Activity-Enhancing Features
  • Westward Track-Enhancing Features
  • Conclusions
slide27

FRAN

OPAL

BRET

1995-2003 Intense Hurricane Tracks (32 tracks)

westward track parameter wp definition
Westward Track Parameter (WP) Definition

WP = Zone 1 – Zone 2 – Zone 3

Where:

Zone 1 = 500 mb average August-September 500 mb height from (40°-50°N, 65°-75°W)

Zone 2 = 500 mb average August-September 500 mb height from (50°-60°N, 20°-30°W)

Zone 3 = 500 mb average August-September 500 mb height from (40°-50°N, 100°-110°W)

slide31

L

L

H

united states tropical cyclone landfall parameter lp definition
United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Parameter (LP) Definition

LP = GP + UP + WP

Where:

GP = Genesis Parameter

UP = Upper-Level Wind Parameter

WP = Westward Track Parameter

slide35

Outline

  • 2004 Atlantic Basin Statistics
  • Activity-Enhancing Features
  • Westward Track-Enhancing Features
  • Conclusions
conclusions
Conclusions
  • The 2004 hurricane season was very active both in terms of overall tropical cyclone activity and in terms of United States landfalls
  • A strong Intertropical Convergence Zone, weaker trade winds, and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures contributed to the very active season
  • A mid-level ridge predominated over the East Coast of the United States with mid-level troughs to the west and east which helped push storms westward into the longitudes of the United States