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Russian Politics P.Sc. 251

Russian Politics P.Sc. 251

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Russian Politics P.Sc. 251

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  1. Russian Politics P.Sc. 251 “Russians idolize the past, hate the present, and fear the future.” Anton Chekhov

  2. RUSSIA • Spawned from old Soviet Union • Largest geographic country • Eur-Asian, northern • Massively uneven demography • Ethnically diverse (language,culture, etc.) • Only other large nuclear arsenal • In the throes of massive transition

  3. Pre-Soviet Highlights • Small fiefdoms • Vulnerable to Swedes, Turks, Mongols • Brutal, authoritarian politics “Tzar” • Serfdom • Conservative & Reactionary • Education, science, pluralism stunted • “Slavs”

  4. Political History • The Tzars & Tzarist Russia • World War I • The Russian Revolution • The Bolshevik Revolution • Civil War • Lenin: 1921-24 NEP Ideology / PARTY

  5. Marxian Concepts of Change • Meaningful players = classes • History moves through stages/epochs • When capitalist society develops fully, the socialist revolution will result • Bourgeoisie Petty Bourgeoisie Proletariat Peasantry

  6. Political History policy uncertainty ... • Leadership transition: void • Stalin planning centralization control classic political structure

  7. Five Vertical Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates

  8. Five Vertical Parallel Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates

  9. Mass Organizations

  10. Political History • World War II • emerging from WW II • Stalin’s death / ‘53-’56 void • 20th Party Congress / Secret Speech Krushchev Thaw “Change” • Who’s Listening ? Aspiring young politicos …

  11. Political History • Krushchev’s undoing … failed reform & Cuba • 1964: Brezhnev & Kosygin gray, bureaucrats routinized policies illusion-making … • Seventies … posturing to cover decline • ‘81-’85 void: Andropov, Chernenko

  12. Summary Political History • Traditional structure: PARALLEL & VERTICAL & CENTRALIZED • No design for leadership succession • Little multi-stage policy analysis … • Objective = stay in power … • Change is threatening! • Power exists IF believed ...

  13. The LINE • Western systems of law require specificity, precision, clarity of rules • In a composite sense, laws specify the “line” between what one can and cannot do • In Western systems, persons are encouraged to ‘use’ all the latitude they are given • As a consequence, elaborates systems must be put in place to “guard” the line i.e. social control

  14. The CLOUD • In Communist systems (and elsewhere) rules are presented to the public in purposively ambiguous terms • Against the law to engage in “anti-system behavior;” or “hooliganism” • The “line” designating what you can or cannot do is embedded in a cloud that you cannot see into … • Result: given the uncertainty, you do not do anything that could be judged illegal • Consequence: highly efficient social control

  15. Graphic: Line & Cloud ` illegal behaviors legal behaviors

  16. The relationship between the PARTY and the STATE is most closely like which of the following? (a) a father and twelve year old son (b) two twin brothers (c) a priest and a devout catholic (d) a general and a private (e) two political science professors Think carefully …

  17. Gorbachev • Different person; different attitude • Younger, university educated • Skeptical about past; apprehensive future • Problems: economic decline military drain political monopoly polarized politics

  18. Gorbachev Challenges • Tinker or Change? radical/incremental • Enlist Communist Party or remove? • Centralize power or de-centralize power? • Open door to public input? • Increase information flow? • Tolerate more inequality / incentives? • Conform to western norms?

  19. Gorbachev Choices ... • Tinker …? • Loyal to CPSU • Centralize while de-centralizing • Open door / ajar • Increase information • Incentives + • Conform in politics / caution in economics

  20. Coup: August , 1991 • Union Treaty/issue: de-centralization • Gorbachev on holiday • Plotters: Politburo Memb./Conservatives • YELTSIN & Gorbachev story • Failure: inept plan, pitiful execution • Fallout: dual leadership & ambiguity • Gorbachev uncertainty, weakness

  21. Yeltsin • Betrayal & duplicity • Political ambition & nationalism • Minsk conspiracy • Gorbachev without power base … • Radical strategy without analysis! • Dec. 25, 1991 • What next??

  22. The Issues of POWER in the New RUSSIA • Legislature vs. Executive • Representation & Responsiveness • Politics as confrontation; not compromise • WINNING & losing: zero-sum outcomes • “democracy” as elections ONLY • the jabbing, critical milieu ...

  23. Boris Yeltsin (before power) 1931 Date of Birth 1986 Gorbachev brings to Moscow to run Party 1987 Yeltsin criticizes Party leadership 1988 Yeltsin criticizes Gorbachev’s wife 1989 quits CP; elected to Soviet leg. as democrat 1990 creates “presidency” of Russian Republic 1991 elected Russian “president” (June) resists COUP & backs Gorbachev (Aug) works to undermine USSR & break-up (Fall) declares himself Pres. country Russia (Dec)

  24. Boris Yeltsin (with power) • 1992 Declares all Soviet assets now Russian; Duplicates Soviet political institutions • 1993 Sept. Announces dissolving Duma Oct. Violence: leg vs. exec Nov. “Constitution” Dec. Duma elections • 1994 Constitutional referendum (Apr.) 500 Days experiment • 1995 Chechen rebellion Duma elections (Dec.)

  25. SPINNING BORIS … Take away ideas?

  26. Boris Yeltsin (with “real” power) • 1996 June/July Presidential elections Yeltsin stroke; Yeltsin wins! • 1997 Passive leadership • 1998 new PM strategy; GKO crisis (Aug) • 1999 Scandals … “family” Duma elections, resignation • 2000 Yeltsin immunity early Pres. elections (Mar.) PUTIN

  27. Understanding today … • Compare past to present … • Compare present to future … • Prognosis for health of the system values … destination (“democracy”) machinery … vehicle leadership … driver

  28. VALUES • Expectations … • Economic vs. Political Values / Equality democracy vs. capitalism • Replacement values: market system compromise • Freedom vs. Tolerance • The search for values - where, when?

  29. RT reports that Medvedev signed a new law that • defines the status, rights and duties of policemen • defines corporate fraud and tax evasion • outlaws vigilante groups aimed at stopping rogue gangs • defines penalties for non-voting • changes the system for constitutional amendments

  30. More values ... • Performance vs. Faith • Nationalism vs. Patriotism Confusion, counter-productive polemics ? Can you expect support democracy when experiencing economic trauma

  31. Architecture / Machinery • Legislature -- Executive • Centralization -- De-centralization • Distributive -- Extractive • Legal/Social Control Cloud & Line • Capitalism without Capital • Education • Military

  32. Branches of Power

  33. Elect leaders Listen Patience Legitimize rules/control Doors & windows Consensus-seeking Protect minorities Recognize management costs Prepare to compromise/lose Organize Equitable rules Patriotism Transparency What does Democracy look like?

  34. Term Paper Topics.

  35. LEADERSHIP • Opportunistic • Insecure • Egocentric? • Inexperienced • Recognize their POWER • Russians expect unofficial behavior • Uncomfortable with sharing power • Pension for centralized control • Lack legitimacy

  36. Leadership Qualities • Rookies vs. “born agains” • Political WISDOM vs. Political COURAGE

  37. Political Parties • Definition … • Ideological, Mass, Platform founded, Candidate founded ? • “Right” “Left” • Non-party Parties: “Unity” • Coalitions

  38. * Unity * Yabloko * Union of Right Forces * Russia’s Choice * Russian Movement for Democratic Reform * Russia’s Democratic Choice Women of Russia Our Home is Russia Democratic Party Fatherland Congress of Russian Communties # Liberal Democrats # Kommunists + Agrarian Party + The early “line-up:” ’90’s

  39. Elections ... • Elections as legitimizing mechanism • Elections as weapon (parliamentary) • Winter / Summer variants … ? • Organization • Predictions • Costs

  40. Single Member District Plurality Understandable Constituency focus Big picture misrep Favors concentration Favors “splash” candidates Proportional Representation “party lists” System focus No tie to constituency Presumes no pattern Protects distribution Protects minorities Minimizes “splash” Election Types …

  41. Political Developments • Duma Elections The Record … ‘93 BIG SURPRISE LD Party plurality; CP next ‘95 BIG SURPRISE CP plurality ’99 Emerging patternCP plurality ’03 BIG SURPRISE United Russia; LD Party next old system = “nomenklatura” Transition enabled many to retain power … ’93 * vast majority CP elites still in place * 57% nomenklatura retained

  42. Duma Election: Dec. 2003 • Pre-election “reforms” 1. make deal with republican governors (elect/appoint) 2. parties* making 5% cut – (4) easy sledding … on any future ballot 3. parties not making cut -- (40) petitions: 2 million / 1 month very high election bond not automatically on ballot • Parties “parties of power” vs. “opposition parties” … in new democracies how and when political parties emerge is central to political development. * if United Russia not a party … entitled to status & privileges?

  43. Dec. ’03 Results • 60,712,299 voters (55.75% of 109 million registered voters) • 37.57% voted for UNITED RUSSIA = 120 seats • 12.61% KPRF = 40 seats • 11.45% LIBERAL DEMOCRAT = 36 seats • 9.02% HOMELAND (Rodina) = 29 seats 225 seats YABLOKO 4.3% 2,609,823 UNION OF RIGHT FORCES (SPS) 3.97% 2,408,356 “against all” 4.7% 2,851,600

  44. Dec. ’03 Implications • Winners: Putin & United Russia (loose pol. org. supporting the admin.) • Big Losers: CP & Democrats • Big Individual Losers: Zyuganov, Yavlinsky, Chubais

  45. Inside Look at Key Parties • United Russia government officials/Establishment • KPRF (“Communists”) opposition rhetoric/”tamed leftists”/no allies • Liberal Democrats (Ultra-Nationalists) compliant nationalists/vote with E. • Rodina (Motherland/Homeland) manufactured by gov to undermine KPRF; E. controlled

  46. Political Party Landscape Factional Strength in State Duma (PR portion) ’94-’95 ’96-’99 ’00-’03 ’04 -- Russia’s Choice 73 -- -- SPS -- -- 32 PRES 30 -- -- Yabloko 28 46 21 LD Union 26 -- -- DPR 15 -- -- Our Home is R -- 65 -- Fatherland -- -- 47 • Unity -- -- 82 United Russia 120 Women of R 23 -- -- New Regional Policy 66 -- -- Regions of R -- 41 40 Agrarian 55* 35* 42 • LD Party 64 51 16 Liberal Democrats 40 Russia’s Way 14 -- -- People’s Power -- 37 -- • KPRF 45* 149* 89 KPRF 36 • Motherland -- -- -- Rodina 29

  47. Election Post-Mortem • United Russia claiming not pol. party refused to participate in TV debates • 22 other parties debated … • United Russia got “news” coverage via leaders who were gov ministers • OECD estimates that 56% of campaign coverage was on Putin & Unity without “campaigning”

  48. More Post-election eval … • OECD concludes election NOT up to “Western standard” • OPPOSITION in ’90’s = (to exec leadership) Reds & Browns ’00-’04 = Reds & Dems ’04- ? = … Pinks • Party System future? 49 – 22 – 4 -- ? Optimal? 2, 1

  49. Key questions about Parties • Does more electoral choice = more democracy? • Are political parties shaped by the general public? define issues & recruit leadership • Does the opposition have any role in contributing to the policy-making process?