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Russian Politics P.Sc. 251. “Russians idolize the past, hate the present, and fear the future.” Anton Chekhov. RUSSIA. Spawned from old Soviet Union Largest geographic country Eur-Asian, northern Massively uneven demography

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Russian politics p sc 251 l.jpg
Russian Politics P.Sc. 251

“Russians idolize the past, hate the present,

and fear the future.”

Anton Chekhov


Russia l.jpg
RUSSIA

  • Spawned from old Soviet Union

  • Largest geographic country

  • Eur-Asian, northern

  • Massively uneven demography

  • Ethnically diverse (language,culture, etc.)

  • Only other large nuclear arsenal

  • In the throes of massive transition


Pre soviet highlights l.jpg
Pre-Soviet Highlights

  • Small fiefdoms

  • Vulnerable to Swedes, Turks, Mongols

  • Brutal, authoritarian politics “Tzar”

  • Serfdom

  • Conservative & Reactionary

  • Education, science, pluralism stunted

  • “Slavs”


Political history l.jpg
Political History

  • The Tzars & Tzarist Russia

  • World War I

  • The Russian Revolution

  • The Bolshevik Revolution

  • Civil War

  • Lenin: 1921-24 NEP

    Ideology / PARTY


Marxian concepts of change l.jpg
Marxian Concepts of Change

  • Meaningful players = classes

  • History moves through stages/epochs

  • When capitalist society develops fully,

    the socialist revolution will result

  • Bourgeoisie

    Petty Bourgeoisie

    Proletariat

    Peasantry


Political history7 l.jpg
Political History

policy uncertainty ...

  • Leadership transition: void

  • Stalin

    planning

    centralization

    control

    classic political structure


Five vertical bureaucracies with interlocking directorates l.jpg
Five Vertical Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates


Five vertical parallel bureaucracies with interlocking directorates l.jpg
Five Vertical Parallel Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates



Political history11 l.jpg
Political History

  • World War II

  • emerging from WW II

  • Stalin’s death / ‘53-’56 void

  • 20th Party Congress / Secret Speech

    Krushchev

    Thaw

    “Change”

  • Who’s Listening ? Aspiring young politicos …


Political history12 l.jpg
Political History

  • Krushchev’s undoing … failed reform & Cuba

  • 1964: Brezhnev & Kosygin

    gray, bureaucrats

    routinized policies

    illusion-making …

  • Seventies … posturing to cover decline

  • ‘81-’85 void: Andropov, Chernenko


Summary political history l.jpg
Summary Political History

  • Traditional structure: PARALLEL & VERTICAL & CENTRALIZED

  • No design for leadership succession

  • Little multi-stage policy analysis …

  • Objective = stay in power …

  • Change is threatening!

  • Power exists IF believed ...


The line l.jpg
The LINE

  • Western systems of law require specificity, precision, clarity of rules

  • In a composite sense, laws specify the “line” between what one can and cannot do

  • In Western systems, persons are encouraged to ‘use’ all the latitude they are given

  • As a consequence, elaborates systems must be put in place to “guard” the line

    i.e. social control


The cloud l.jpg
The CLOUD

  • In Communist systems (and elsewhere)

    rules are presented to the public in purposively ambiguous terms

  • Against the law to engage in “anti-system behavior;” or “hooliganism”

  • The “line” designating what you can or cannot do is embedded in a cloud that you cannot see into …

  • Result: given the uncertainty, you do not do anything that could be judged illegal

  • Consequence: highly efficient social control


Slide16 l.jpg

Graphic: Line & Cloud

`

illegal

behaviors

legal

behaviors


The relationship between the party and the state is most closely like which of the following l.jpg
The relationship between the PARTY and the STATE is most closely like which of the following?

(a) a father and twelve year old son

(b) two twin brothers

(c) a priest and a devout catholic

(d) a general and a private

(e) two political science professors

Think carefully …


Gorbachev l.jpg
Gorbachev closely like which of the following?

  • Different person; different attitude

  • Younger, university educated

  • Skeptical about past; apprehensive future

  • Problems: economic decline

    military drain

    political monopoly

    polarized politics


Gorbachev challenges l.jpg
Gorbachev Challenges closely like which of the following?

  • Tinker or Change? radical/incremental

  • Enlist Communist Party or remove?

  • Centralize power or de-centralize power?

  • Open door to public input?

  • Increase information flow?

  • Tolerate more inequality / incentives?

  • Conform to western norms?


Gorbachev choices l.jpg
Gorbachev Choices ... closely like which of the following?

  • Tinker …?

  • Loyal to CPSU

  • Centralize while de-centralizing

  • Open door / ajar

  • Increase information

  • Incentives +

  • Conform in politics / caution in economics


Coup august 1991 l.jpg
Coup: August , 1991 closely like which of the following?

  • Union Treaty/issue: de-centralization

  • Gorbachev on holiday

  • Plotters: Politburo Memb./Conservatives

  • YELTSIN & Gorbachev story

  • Failure: inept plan, pitiful execution

  • Fallout: dual leadership & ambiguity

  • Gorbachev uncertainty, weakness


Yeltsin l.jpg
Yeltsin closely like which of the following?

  • Betrayal & duplicity

  • Political ambition & nationalism

  • Minsk conspiracy

  • Gorbachev without power base …

  • Radical strategy without analysis!

  • Dec. 25, 1991

  • What next??


The issues of power in the new russia l.jpg
The Issues of POWER in the closely like which of the following?New RUSSIA

  • Legislature vs. Executive

  • Representation & Responsiveness

  • Politics as confrontation; not compromise

  • WINNING & losing: zero-sum outcomes

  • “democracy” as elections ONLY

  • the jabbing, critical milieu ...


Boris yeltsin before power l.jpg
Boris Yeltsin closely like which of the following?(before power)

1931 Date of Birth

1986 Gorbachev brings to Moscow to run Party

1987 Yeltsin criticizes Party leadership

1988 Yeltsin criticizes Gorbachev’s wife

1989 quits CP; elected to Soviet leg. as democrat

1990 creates “presidency” of Russian Republic

1991 elected Russian “president” (June)

resists COUP & backs Gorbachev (Aug)

works to undermine USSR & break-up (Fall)

declares himself Pres. country Russia (Dec)


Boris yeltsin with power l.jpg
Boris Yeltsin closely like which of the following?(with power)

  • 1992 Declares all Soviet assets now Russian;

    Duplicates Soviet political institutions

  • 1993 Sept. Announces dissolving Duma

    Oct. Violence: leg vs. exec

    Nov. “Constitution”

    Dec. Duma elections

  • 1994 Constitutional referendum (Apr.)

    500 Days experiment

  • 1995 Chechen rebellion

    Duma elections (Dec.)


Spinning boris l.jpg
SPINNING BORIS … closely like which of the following?

Take away ideas?


Boris yeltsin with real power l.jpg
Boris Yeltsin closely like which of the following?(with “real” power)

  • 1996 June/July Presidential elections

    Yeltsin stroke; Yeltsin wins!

  • 1997 Passive leadership

  • 1998 new PM strategy; GKO crisis (Aug)

  • 1999 Scandals … “family”

    Duma elections, resignation

  • 2000 Yeltsin immunity

    early Pres. elections (Mar.) PUTIN


Understanding today l.jpg
Understanding today … closely like which of the following?

  • Compare past to present …

  • Compare present to future …

  • Prognosis for health of the system

    values … destination (“democracy”) machinery … vehicle

    leadership … driver


Values l.jpg
VALUES closely like which of the following?

  • Expectations …

  • Economic vs. Political Values / Equality

    democracy vs. capitalism

  • Replacement values: market system

    compromise

  • Freedom vs. Tolerance

  • The search for values - where, when?


Rt reports that medvedev signed a new law that l.jpg
RT reports that Medvedev signed a new law that closely like which of the following?

  • defines the status, rights and duties of policemen

  • defines corporate fraud and tax evasion

  • outlaws vigilante groups aimed at stopping rogue gangs

  • defines penalties for non-voting

  • changes the system for constitutional amendments


More values l.jpg
More values ... closely like which of the following?

  • Performance vs. Faith

  • Nationalism vs. Patriotism

    Confusion, counter-productive polemics

    ? Can you expect support democracy when experiencing economic trauma


Architecture machinery l.jpg
Architecture / Machinery closely like which of the following?

  • Legislature -- Executive

  • Centralization -- De-centralization

  • Distributive -- Extractive

  • Legal/Social Control Cloud & Line

  • Capitalism without Capital

  • Education

  • Military


Branches of power l.jpg
Branches of Power closely like which of the following?


What does democracy look like l.jpg

Elect leaders closely like which of the following?

Listen

Patience

Legitimize rules/control

Doors & windows

Consensus-seeking

Protect minorities

Recognize management costs

Prepare to compromise/lose

Organize

Equitable rules

Patriotism

Transparency

What does Democracy look like?


Term paper topics l.jpg
Term Paper Topics. closely like which of the following?


Leadership l.jpg
LEADERSHIP closely like which of the following?

  • Opportunistic

  • Insecure

  • Egocentric?

  • Inexperienced

  • Recognize their POWER

  • Russians expect unofficial behavior

  • Uncomfortable with sharing power

  • Pension for centralized control

  • Lack legitimacy


Leadership qualities l.jpg
Leadership Qualities closely like which of the following?

  • Rookies vs. “born agains”

  • Political WISDOM vs.

    Political COURAGE


Political parties l.jpg
Political Parties closely like which of the following?

  • Definition …

  • Ideological, Mass, Platform founded, Candidate founded ?

  • “Right” “Left”

  • Non-party Parties: “Unity”

  • Coalitions


The early line up 90 s l.jpg

* Unity closely like which of the following?

* Yabloko

* Union of Right Forces

* Russia’s Choice

* Russian Movement for Democratic Reform

* Russia’s Democratic Choice

Women of Russia

Our Home is Russia

Democratic Party

Fatherland

Congress of Russian Communties #

Liberal Democrats #

Kommunists +

Agrarian Party +

The early “line-up:” ’90’s


Elections l.jpg
Elections ... closely like which of the following?

  • Elections as legitimizing mechanism

  • Elections as weapon (parliamentary)

  • Winter / Summer variants … ?

  • Organization

  • Predictions

  • Costs


Election types l.jpg

Single Member District Plurality closely like which of the following?

Understandable

Constituency focus

Big picture misrep

Favors concentration

Favors “splash” candidates

Proportional Representation

“party lists”

System focus

No tie to constituency

Presumes no pattern

Protects distribution

Protects minorities

Minimizes “splash”

Election Types …


Political developments l.jpg
Political Developments closely like which of the following?

  • Duma Elections The Record …

    ‘93 BIG SURPRISE LD Party plurality; CP next

    ‘95 BIG SURPRISE CP plurality

    ’99 Emerging patternCP plurality

    ’03 BIG SURPRISE United Russia; LD Party next

    old system = “nomenklatura”

    Transition enabled many to retain power …

    ’93 * vast majority CP elites still in place

    * 57% nomenklatura retained


Duma election dec 2003 l.jpg
Duma Election: Dec. 2003 closely like which of the following?

  • Pre-election “reforms”

    1. make deal with republican governors (elect/appoint)

    2. parties* making 5% cut – (4)

    easy sledding … on any future ballot

    3. parties not making cut -- (40)

    petitions: 2 million / 1 month

    very high election bond

    not automatically on ballot

  • Parties

    “parties of power” vs. “opposition parties”

    … in new democracies how and when political parties emerge is central to political development.

    * if United Russia not a party … entitled to status & privileges?


Dec 03 results l.jpg
Dec. ’03 closely like which of the following?Results

  • 60,712,299 voters

    (55.75% of 109 million registered voters)

  • 37.57% voted for UNITED RUSSIA = 120 seats

  • 12.61% KPRF = 40 seats

  • 11.45% LIBERAL DEMOCRAT = 36 seats

  • 9.02% HOMELAND (Rodina) = 29 seats

    225 seats

    YABLOKO 4.3% 2,609,823

    UNION OF RIGHT FORCES (SPS) 3.97% 2,408,356

    “against all” 4.7% 2,851,600


Dec 03 implications l.jpg
Dec. ’03 closely like which of the following?Implications

  • Winners: Putin & United Russia

    (loose pol. org. supporting the admin.)

  • Big Losers: CP & Democrats

  • Big Individual Losers:

    Zyuganov, Yavlinsky, Chubais


Inside look at key parties l.jpg
Inside Look at Key Parties closely like which of the following?

  • United Russia

    government officials/Establishment

  • KPRF (“Communists”)

    opposition rhetoric/”tamed leftists”/no allies

  • Liberal Democrats (Ultra-Nationalists)

    compliant nationalists/vote with E.

  • Rodina (Motherland/Homeland)

    manufactured by gov to undermine KPRF;

    E. controlled


Political party landscape l.jpg
Political Party Landscape closely like which of the following?

Factional Strength in State Duma (PR portion)

’94-’95 ’96-’99 ’00-’03 ’04 --

Russia’s Choice 73 -- --

SPS -- -- 32

PRES 30 -- --

Yabloko 28 46 21

LD Union 26 -- --

DPR 15 -- --

Our Home is R -- 65 --

Fatherland -- -- 47

  • Unity -- -- 82 United Russia 120

    Women of R 23 -- --

    New Regional Policy 66 -- --

    Regions of R -- 41 40

    Agrarian 55* 35* 42

  • LD Party 64 51 16 Liberal Democrats 40

    Russia’s Way 14 -- --

    People’s Power -- 37 --

  • KPRF 45* 149* 89 KPRF 36

  • Motherland -- -- -- Rodina 29


Election post mortem l.jpg
Election Post-Mortem closely like which of the following?

  • United Russia claiming not pol. party

    refused to participate in TV debates

  • 22 other parties debated …

  • United Russia got “news” coverage via leaders who were gov ministers

  • OECD estimates that 56% of campaign coverage was on Putin &

    Unity without “campaigning”


More post election eval l.jpg
More Post-election eval … closely like which of the following?

  • OECD concludes election NOT up to “Western standard”

  • OPPOSITION in ’90’s =

    (to exec leadership) Reds & Browns

    ’00-’04 = Reds & Dems

    ’04- ? = … Pinks

  • Party System future?

    49 – 22 – 4 -- ? Optimal? 2, 1


Key questions about parties l.jpg
Key questions about Parties closely like which of the following?

  • Does more electoral choice =

    more democracy?

  • Are political parties shaped by the general public?

    define issues & recruit leadership

  • Does the opposition have any role in contributing to the policy-making process?


Key answers about parties l.jpg
Key answers about Parties closely like which of the following?

  • Does more electoral choice =

    more democracy? NO

  • Are political parties shaped by the general public? NO

    define issues & recruit leadership

  • Does the opposition have any role in contributing to the policy-making process? NO


Next critical event l.jpg
Next Critical Event … closely like which of the following?

  • Presidential Campaigns ‘04

    (in limbo until Duma result)

  • Parties with entitled Candidates …

    United Russia – Putin

    KPRF – Zyuganov out; new leader running

    contemplating boycott

    Liberal Democrats – Zhirinovsky replaces

    himself with sacrificial lamb

    Rodino runs unknown; not party leader


Fallen candidates l.jpg
Fallen CANDIDATES … closely like which of the following?

  • Democrats via Duma election exclus.

    (Yavlinsky, Nemtsov, Chubais)

  • Khodorovsky via indictment

    (oligarch jailed on tax charge; held

    without bail; hearing March 25th)

  • Rybkin via breakdown

    (Berezovsky financial backing;

    former PM and Natl Security Advisor)


Presidential election l.jpg
Presidential Election closely like which of the following?

  • March 14, 2004

  • Conventional wisdom: Putin will win on first ballot with 70% of the vote

  • No other candidate has system-wide name recognition

  • Putin will not debate


Lingering political issue l.jpg
Lingering Political Issue … closely like which of the following?

  • THIRD TERM?

    *unratified constitution prohibits

    third term;

    *constitutional amendment would be

    required;

    *2/3 vote in Duma = 300/450

    (PM received 352 votes in new Duma)


Persistent problems l.jpg
Persistent Problems closely like which of the following?

Chechnya no discussion during campaign

Black Widows -- Moscow subway, theater, streets

Political Illusions (internal/external)

Military

attempt at bolstering / sub-missile debacle

“Doing the job without the resources”

Confusion about their role … since August Coup ‘91

Economic development

→Oligarchs & uneven wealth resonates w/masses

Rodino advocates returning wealth / rev. privatiz

→Competitive manufacturing

→Jobs


Election misbehavior 2008 l.jpg
Election “Misbehavior” 2008 closely like which of the following?

OSCE/14 countries refuse to monitor

Kasyanov, Kasparov, Zyuganov

Other Russia refused permit demonstrate day after …

Nemtsov & vanishing democrats

Zhirinovsky & LDPR boycott

Boycott criminal under law to protect right to participate in elections


Slide58 l.jpg

State controlled media coverage: closely like which of the following?

Medvedev Dec. 70%; Jan. 88%

Zyuganov 11%; 2%

Election law: “equality of the candidates in campaign time in the mass media”

court ruled: lack of a definition of equality means that the statistical analysis of the coverage is inadmissible –all candidates must simply receive “some” coverage!


Campaigning l.jpg
Campaigning? closely like which of the following?

Medvedev officially took one day off without pay this week to “campaign” – only day in entire candidacy!

Made one 10 minute address stressing political stability and protecting Russian sovereignty

Aired free repeatedly during newscasts …

Should have cost $800,000 each time and violated laws governing campaign ads –

Media defended saying that Medvedev’s “event was more interesting and newsworthy


Slide60 l.jpg

Channel One: Posner closely like which of the following?

blacklist/”stop list” not to be invited;

forbidding the mention of individual public figures: Kasparov, Yavlinsky

December parliamentary elections:

United Russia polled over 99% in many districts

farce, Byzantine palace intrigue, tasteless farce played out by untalented directors


Vote counting l.jpg
Vote Counting … closely like which of the following?

The Central Election Commission has created a sub-commission to officially tally the votes.

They will set the voter protocol, issue the official tally of votes and field all complaints.

ALL members of the sub-commission are members of the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party!


Election polls predictions l.jpg
Election Polls & Predictions closely like which of the following?

Medvedev 72.9%

Zyuganov 15%

Zhirinovsky 10.9%

Bogdanov 1% turnout 70%

2004: Putin 71.31%

turnout 64.4%


Putin s last words l.jpg
Putin’s “Last” Words … closely like which of the following?

New Year’s Address, Last Speech, Last “Press Conference” 100 questions/78 journalists

Called opposition criticism “unconstructive”

Most bothersome problem: “corruption”

Solution:“legal, even repressive” measures

Characterization 1990s: “Ravaged” by inflation, devaluation, default; by terrorists and civil war; by outside forces inciting separatism. State power was “ineffective;” much of economy in hands of oligarchs and criminals.


Dmitry medvedev l.jpg
Dmitry MEDVEDEV closely like which of the following?

Born 1965, parents = intellectuals

in school: leader, calm, disciplined, confident

Fan, British hard rock: Black Sabbath, Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, Deep Purple

At 23, christened into Russian Orthodox church

Studied LAW, St. Petersburg, 1987

Taught civil law; external relations office

St. Petersburg; business world & lawyer


Kremlin putin prot g l.jpg
Kremlin … Putin protégé closely like which of the following?

Deputy Head of Government Administration

Deputy Chief of Staff (President Putin) 2000

March 2000 Putin’s Campaign Manager

June 2000 Gazprom Board Chairman

October 2003 Chief of Staff

2005 First Deputy Prime Minister (Duma)

healthcare, education, ag, housing

Dec. 10, 2007 Putin taps Medvedev as preferred candidate for President; wants Putin as PM


Characterizing medvedev l.jpg
Characterizing Medvedev … closely like which of the following?

Shevtsova, “Medvedev is not an extremist. He is not known for any kind of harsh views on politics, and apparently Medvedev better suits Putin’s view of how to achieve continuity.”

“Medvedev projects a mild-mannered public image and has been widely seen as a functionary devoted to Putin rather than as an independent thinker.”

“If Putin wants to return in two or three years, Medvedev will be the person who will without a doubt give up the path for him.”


Medvedev s vision l.jpg
Medvedev’s vision … closely like which of the following?

“Russia can only be governed by a strong presidential power. If Russia is turned into a parliamentary republic, it will disappear. This is my profound conviction. Russia is a federative structure and must be based on a firm executive vertical.”


Medvedev program l.jpg
Medvedev “Program” closely like which of the following?

Four I’s & Seven Tasks

Institutions, Infrastructure, Innovation, Investments

1. Overcome legal nihilism / reform courts

2. Lower administrative barriers

3. Lower tax burden

4. Make ruble hard currency

5. Modernize transportation & energy

6. Create basis for innovation

7. Develop program for social development


Economic plan for 10 2nd decade l.jpg
Economic Plan for ’10 & closely like which of the following?2nd Decade

Raise pensions 10%

Raise stipends for births

Control pharmaceutical prices

Raise utility prices 10%

Create banking regulations

Improve living standards for military

De-centralize control of licenses


Economy lurching forward backward suffering from spasms good news l.jpg
Economy: closely like which of the following?Lurching forward & backwardSuffering from Spasms -- GOOD NEWS

Russian GDP per cap $16,000 2.7 X China’s

Flat tax = 13%; corporate tax = 24% lowest in Europe

Privatized 5500 more firms

In 2000, economy 22nd in world; ‘09 7th

Oligarchs under severe pressure from government

Middle class from 8 million to 55 million

Poverty: from 30% to 14%

2008 stock market set world record losses;

2009 set world record for growth!

Standard & Poor’s raised “outlook” from “negative” to “stable”


Economy the bad news l.jpg
Economy: closely like which of the following?The BAD News

4-5% of Russian are politically loyal entrepreneurial class that behaves like the middle class in western societies

Economic Openness index (Fraser Institute):

Russia ranks 83rd behind Uganda, Namibia, Kazakstan

Industrial output down 11% in ’09

Natural gas output down 17%

Fixed investment declined by 18%

Exports down 44%; Imports down 31%

Medvedev: Unemployment main social problem 6.5m 9%


Economic priority shift l.jpg
Economic Priority Shift … closely like which of the following?

Medvedev: “invest abroad”

follow China’s example, buy foreign companies to boost tech development

government should subsidize to enable retooling of Russian industry

diversify investments; win new markets

create influence abroad; thereby strengthen state


Plans for 2020 l.jpg
Plans for 2020 … closely like which of the following?

If PM, no portrait of Medvedev in office

Middle class – 70%

Responsibilities for econ & social devel

transferred to regional & local authorities

Russia returns to the world stage

Econ moves beyond reliance on natural resources & commodities

Innovative development for competitive advantage


Slide74 l.jpg

Disgrace that one in every two Russian men die before 60; life expectancy to 75

Close gap between rich and poor

Four fold increase / labor productivity

Become world financial center

Reduce bureaucracy & corruption

Embrace de-centralization/accountability


Assessing the future l.jpg
Assessing the future … life expectancy to 75

REQUISITES:

  • Value consensus

    Discernable direction

  • Political Machinery

    “Vehicle” to transport society

  • Effective Leadership

    “Driver” to maneuver toward destination

    Putin = driver without operable vehicle or

    established destination …


Media deterioration l.jpg
Media Deterioration life expectancy to 75

Most dangerous place in the world for journalists not in war zone

Reporters Without Borders …

“Russia among those countries where press freedom is under the greatest threat.” “on a par with Zimbabwe”

Journalist two months in prison: marching in demonstration , media offices raided, forcibly assigned to psychiatric hospitals, mysterious killings of investigative reporters


Intellectual academic squeeze l.jpg
Intellectual /Academic Squeeze life expectancy to 75

EU University (St. Petersburg) closed

“unprecedented attack on academic freedom”

buildings declared fire hazard, all academic work ceased, classrooms sealed, library shut

Politically motivated closing:

1 B Euro grant to advise Russia’s political parties; EUSP = agent of foreign meddling

Ethnically motivated killings of

dark-skinned persons in Moscow –

six last week; sixteen since Jan. 1


Psychology more good news l.jpg
Psychology life expectancy to 75: More GOOD NEWS

Optimism is UP Pessimism is DOWN

30% optimistic 18% pessimistic (down from 30%)

70% of firms took negative actions –

43% cut jobs, 34% cut wages, 26% cut work week

yet … 30% of young Russians say that they can find jobs quickly if dismissed

53% say MEDIA does satisfy even the most discerning demands of the public (young 63%)

48% say the MEDIA should instill moral values


Law order fighting corruption from new angle l.jpg
LAW & ORDER life expectancy to 75Fighting Corruption from New Angle

  • Past: pursue “takers” those demanding bribes

  • Now: pursue “givers” those offering bribes

  • Central government has prosecuted 800 senior government executives on corruption charges

  • Russia ranks in the bottom ten European countries in terms of corruption

  • Corruption perception index: Russia 146th in world

  • Mushrooming POLICE scandals: murders, no convictions

  • Official Police response: demand end to defamation of police … political battle emerged: police vs. media


Law order ultra nationalist violence l.jpg
LAW & ORDER life expectancy to 75Ultra-Nationalist Violence

  • Bands of ultra-right nationalist groups randomly targeting

    nonwhite foreigners

  • Extreme nationalism and neo-Nazism across Russia. More than 20 different types of xenophobic groups are active in Moscow alone

  • 15 percent of the young Russian population supports the extreme nationalistic movement

  • 2009, 71 foreigners killed in hate crimes; ‘08, 110 ’10, 6

  • “It will be tough to find anyone willing to invest or study in a country where violence and murders are motivated by skin color and nationality”


First generation change changers l.jpg
First Generation Change life expectancy to 75 & Changers

New Values

New Political Architecture

New Leaders

New Relationships / governors & governed

New International Dependencies

New Foreign Relations

Net = uncertainty


Price waterhouse study prediction l.jpg
Price Waterhouse study/ life expectancy to 75prediction

  • PricewaterhouseCooper believes by 2050,

    Russia will be Europe's “leading” economy

  • China and India will lead Asia (competition)

  • Brazil will lead South America

  • US would lead North America

  • PwC predicts that Russia would become Europe's largest economy by 2020


Medvedev s assessment l.jpg
Medvedev’s life expectancy to 75 assessment

Chronically backward

Primitive

Dependent on raw material exports

Averse to invent or manufacture

Labor productivity is low

Ubiquitous & chronic corruption

Modernization founded on humanistic values

Requires “knowledge based” economy

“true and lasting progress can be made only by free and creative citizens, confident of their liberty.”


Demographics news l.jpg
Demographics life expectancy to 75: News

New campaign against alcohol consumption

Goal: cut consumption in half by 2020

Consumption: 18 liters per year (homemade)

23,000 died alcohol poisoning; 75,000 more

related diseases; 500,000 accident related

Male life expectancy under 60; Europe aver. 77

Remedies:

Ban advertising; censor all movie scenes


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Demographics: life expectancy to 75BAD News

400,000 die annually from smoking …

die 10-15 years earlier than without smoking

70% men smoke; 20% women

‘09 “natural population” declined by 37% to 141m

►fully offset by immigration …

first growth in 15 yrs


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POLITICS: life expectancy to 75Bad News

Medvedev’s MODERNIZATION program

►“Forward Russia” is underfunded!

5 main goals will get 6/100 of 1% of the Fed budget

Industrial production; armed forces; healthcare;

information technology; education

►“Modernization will be conservative in content, nonviolent in methods, and democratic from the standpoint of reliance on the existing democratic institutions. The system will be spared revolutions.”


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Negative Predictions life expectancy to 75: already patterns

Government functions may of necessity be assumed by business or criminal structures

Payments for “free” medical care increasing

Fees & bribes now commonplace in secondary and higher education

Army reform is threatened by disappearing arms

Terrorist acts commonplace in outlying regions

Net effect: public see declining performance by the state


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Newest Russian Study life expectancy to 75:Jan. 2010“Russia in the 21st Century: Visions for the Future”

“Twenty years after the beginning of society’s transformation, we can acknowledge that political and economic development has proven difficult.”

“We have moved forward without determining where we are going and what our vision of the future is.”


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Putin life expectancy to 75MedvedevComparison

Vertical of power

Sovereign democracy

Strong state

Grow government sector

Media requires management

Experts judge:

the stronger

Freedom

Free & Prosperous

Fair political competition

Entrepreneurial liberty

Government scrutinized and accountable

Media unleashed

Experts say: emerging


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More on the “relationship” life expectancy to 75

Next presidential election 2012 … in two years

Record: Putin two terms ‘00 – ’08

Medvedev in first term ‘08-’12

Next presidential election has 5 year term

Officially announced: ONE of them will run in 2012

Not both! “We are close, understand each other well and work together.” Medvedev could not win without Putin’s support

In Putin’s book, FIRST PERSON, “Medvedev is one of those people who inspire in me a sense of fellowship and team spirit.”


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Bottom line life expectancy to 75: of the Russian study

“Russia must face the reality that it may not achieve the highest performance in terms of quality of life, productivity, economic competitiveness or a fully functioning and responsive political system.”


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Drawing Cautious Conclusions: life expectancy to 75

Medvedev is presenting himself as more committed to western style reform

Some argue that this is a good cop; bad cop strategy to appeal to broader segments of Russian voters

It is unwise to assume significant differences exist between Putin & Medvedev given that they need each other

The differences are positive in any event because they frame a dialogue on the issues which can lead to more effective policies


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The Report Card life expectancy to 75…

Consensus on values:

slowly forming around positive ideas C

Systemic architecture:

(political & economic machinery)

more clearly assembled than earlier C+

but not yet functional

Effective, skilled leaders:

significant progress toward reason B


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Perhaps there is reason to … life expectancy to 75

“fear the future”


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US Presidential elections … life expectancy to 75

Medvedev: “work with any”

“business of the American people”

“It is certainly easier to work with a person who has modern positions and is not blinded by the past.”

Institute of Political research: Markov

“a victory for Senator McCain would be the worst-case scenario”

McCain: “I looked into Putin’s eyes and saw the letters KGB.” McCain wants Russia out of G-7.


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Clinton: “Putin doesn’t have a soul.” life expectancy to 75

Putin: “A head of state should have a head.”

Obama: Since Putin will remain in charge,

“We should work on arms control and mutual interests while not neglecting democracy and accountability.”


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Where does this leave us? life expectancy to 75

Foremost: confident there will something to talk about in 2009!

Russia is likely on a path similarly “variable” to the Putin years

Russia is reasserting itself propped up by the high world prices for natural resources

US policy faces an opening … new leadership could restructure the dialogue.


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Recognize management costs life expectancy to 75

Doors & windows

Listening

Accountability

Elects leaders

Consensus-seeking

Equitable rules

Patience

“legitimize” rules

Patriotism

Prepare to compromise / lose

Organize

“global” attitude

Choice

Protect minorities

“Democracy”


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Political Questions … life expectancy to 75

  • Is the system moving in a democratic or non-democratic direction? UNCLEAR

  • Are political institutions taking shape?

    NO

  • Are external relationships helping or hurting Russia develop? HURTING

  • Does the leadership have “vision?” NO

  • If so, are they up to the task? NO


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