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Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007

Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007. Steve Knutson. Insurance is about predicting the future. Emerging Issues are:. Phenomena whose nature and effects are unknown

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Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007

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  1. Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007 Steve Knutson

  2. Insurance is about predicting the future

  3. Emerging Issues are: • Phenomena whose nature and effects are unknown • Beyond the bounds of existing underwriting and risk management protocols • Beyond existing actuarial calculations

  4. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know, we don't know. That there are known knowns, there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know, we don't know. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns. Donald Rumsfeld Former Secretary of Defense Flash

  5. Process Improve-ments Screen Screen Screen Analyze andResolve Analyze andResolve Analyze andResolve Implement Solutions Implement Solutions Implement Solutions Measure Results Measure Results Measure Results Identify PROCESS Quantify and Prioritize Quantify and Prioritize Quantify and Prioritize

  6. Clues

  7. Emerging issues arise from:

  8. Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments

  9. Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments • Socio-economic trends

  10. Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments • Socio-economic trends • Novel legal theories

  11. Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments • Socio-economic trends • Novel legal theories • Legislation and Regulation

  12. Technological Developments

  13. Cell Mutations Technological Developments

  14. Diesel Technological Developments

  15. Acrylamide Technological Developments

  16. DieselAcrylamide Technological Developments

  17. Fear of future injury or disease Technological Developments

  18. Cell Mutations Technological Developments

  19. Socio-economic trends

  20. “Obesity” Litigation Socio-economic trends

  21. Addictive foods Socio-economic trends

  22. Addictive foods Socio-economic trends

  23. Novel Legal Theory

  24. Alien Tort Statute Novel Legal Theory

  25. Alien Tort Statute Novel Legal Theory

  26. Alien Tort Statute Novel Legal Theory

  27. Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory

  28. Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory

  29. Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory

  30. Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory

  31. Legislation

  32. Body burden Legislation

  33. Legislation

  34. Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007 Steve Knutson

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