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Sustaining Energy and Mobility in the 21 st Century: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. Amy Myers Jaffe Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Rice University Richard Lugar/Purdue University Summit on Energy Security

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Sustaining Energy and Mobility in the 21 st Century: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S.


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sustaining energy and mobility in the 21 st century challenges and opportunities for the u s

Sustaining Energy and Mobility in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S.

Amy Myers Jaffe

Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies,

James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy

Rice University

Richard Lugar/Purdue University

Summit on Energy Security

August 29, 2006

international backdrop for oil
International Backdrop for Oil
  • Terrorist attacks on Crude Processing Facilities in Iraq, Saudi Arabia
  • U.S.-Iran—Risks to Strait of Hormuz
  • Saudi Arabia –Political Uncertainties
  • Middle East –Period of Great Political Transition
  • Future of U.S. role in Iraq?
  • Arab-Israeli Conflict
  • Russia – Putin and the Statists
  • Latin America: Populism and Hugo Chavez
  • Africa: Localized unrest in Nigeria
  • China: Demand Wildcard
current state high crude prices
Current State: High Crude Prices
  • Crude prices have more than doubled since late 1999
    • WTI largely traded in the $20 range throughout the 1990s
    • WTI’s price has since risen to more than $70 per barrel
      • 2005 average = $56.64
      • January 2006 = $64.95
slide5

Source: EIA

Source: BP

opec production capacity has fallen not increased since 1979
OPEC production capacity has fallen, not increased, since 1979

OPEC Production and Spare Capacity, 1979-2003 (mmb/d)

Opec can replace all

Iraqi/Kuwait oil in 1990

Asian economic crisis

leaves extra capacity in 1998

Demand bumps

up against capacity

national oil companies on the rise they control the resources
National Oil Companies on the RiseThey Control the Resources

Oil Reserves Held by Russian Companies

69 Bill. Bbl

NOC Oil Reserves (Equity Access)

123 Bill. Bbl

Full IOC Access

70 Bill. Bbl

NOC Oil Reserves (No Equity Access)

886 Bill. Bbl

Oil & Gas: 2,182 Bill. Bbl

WW Proven Oil Reserves: 1,148 Bill. Bbl

Reserves Held by New Russian Companies

NOC Reserves (Equity Access)

Full IOC Access

NOC Reserves

(No Equity Access)

Source: PFC Energy

saudi arabia
Saudi Arabia

From Osama Bin Laden’s Letter to the American People:

“You steal our wealth and oil at paltry prices because of your international influence and military threats. This theft is indeed the biggest theft ever witnessed by mankind in the history of the world.”

--Osama Bin Laden

In December 2004, called on the faithful to attack oil facilities as part of the jihad against the West

slide11

Hurricanes Rita, Katrina

And Gulf Oil & Natural Gas Operations

MISSISSIPPI

ALABAMA

TEXAS

LOUISIANA

R

K

Rita landfall

Katrina landfall

Source: API

Sources: NOAA, EIA

how to create viable alternatives
How to create viable alternatives?

*It is desirable to have diversity of supply options in our automotive transportation system.

*Several viable options exist.

*New policy frameworks needed to remove obstacles and provide incentives.