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Perspectives on Latin America Lessons from LA’s crises The current account is a key variable that should not present major distortions 3% of the GDP The composition of capital inflows is extremely important Long-term direct investment funds – Short term portfolio

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Presentation Transcript
lessons from la s crises
Lessons from LA’s crises
  • The current account is a key variable that should not present major distortions
    • 3% of the GDP
  • The composition of capital inflows is extremely important
    • Long-term direct investment funds – Short term portfolio
  • Productivity gains are fundamental.
lessons cont
Lessons (cont)
  • Fixed exchange rates as a stabilization device are dangerous.
  • The structure of government debt is extremely important
the present of la
The present of LA
  • 35% of Latin Americans live in poverty. That’s 163 million human beings.
  • 86 million people live with less than $1 a day.
  • Unemployment is high
  • Lack of education
  • Rising crime
the future of la
The future of LA

“A country becomes competitive by having good infrastructure, an educatedwork force, regulations that encourage fair competition, a legal system that is open, honest and not subject to pressure, and a political system that reinforces democracy and the will of the people”Jeffrey Davidow US Ambassador in Mexico

red lights
Red lights
  • Interdependencies:
    • Mexico: 80% of exports go to US
    • Argentina: 31% of exports go to Brazil
  • Recession erodes trade agreements
  • Backlash: EZLN, Sendero Luminoso, etc.
  • Countries in trouble
    • Ecuador
    • Colombia
    • Venezuela
    • Peru?
interesting players in the future
Interesting players in the future
  • Cuba
    • Castro?
  • Spain
    • Banks and telecommunications
  • EU
    • Trade vs protectionism
  • USA
    • Elections