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Negative Campaigns. As a strategy Classic examples What lessons Always wrong? What effects? Turnout Voter opinions Blow-back. Negative Campaings. Classic examples Begs questions: What is negative? What is unfair?. Negative Campaigns. Classic examples LBJ Daisy Girl ad

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negative campaigns
Negative Campaigns
  • As a strategy
    • Classic examples
    • What lessons
    • Always wrong?
    • What effects?
      • Turnout
      • Voter opinions
      • Blow-back
negative campaings
Negative Campaings
  • Classic examples
    • Begs questions:
      • What is negative?
      • What is unfair?
negative campaigns1
Negative Campaigns
  • Classic examples
    • LBJ Daisy Girl ad
    • 1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad
    • Just once
  • What are voters supposed to hear?
  • What did they hear?
    • Vote LBJ, or they’ll nuke your kid
negative campaigns2
Negative Campaigns
  • Classic Examples
    • Willie Horton
    • 1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis
    • Lee Atwater… “only question, which hand”
    • Just once (or twice)
  • How define candidate?
  • Why able to define candidate?
negative campaigns3
Negative Campaigns
  • Classic examples
    • Willie Horton
  • Why did this one reach legend status?
    • Aired only once ‘anonymously’
    • Spawned free coverage
    • Woven into ‘official’ message
    • Opinion shifted
negative campaigns4
Negative Campaigns
  • Classic examples
    • Bush v. Dukakis 1988
    • Willie Horton tip of genius iceberg
    • Bush campaign could define an unknown candidate (see Gary Hart ‘ 84, below)
    • Dukakis made it easy on them TANK AD
    • Media felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?
negative campaigns5
Negative Campaigns?
  • Dukakis had it coming?
  • Tank photo among 100 photos that change the World
    • Anne Frank portrait
    • Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, AL
    • Tienneman Square (tank standoff)
negative campaigns6
Negative Campaigns
  • Classic example
    • Jesse Helms,Hands
    • 1990 US Senate vs. Harvey Gantt
  • Context matters
    • Helms campaign guilty of letters threatening black voters with jail if they voted
    • “qualifications don’t matter…”
negative campaigns7
Negative Campaigns
  • Classic examples
    • Chambliss vs Max Cleland US Senate 2002
    • Karl Rove painting. Vietnam vet as unpatriotic
  • Link conservative Dem to OsBL
    • Could ad have happened if not for 9/11?
    • Bill Clinton recently said MoveOn ad lowest thing since this
negative campaigns8
Negative Campaigns
  • More recent examples
    • 2004 National elections
    • Karl Rove
    • GOP, “These are the stakes”
  • Democrats = you will die?
    • at least that’s how they spun it
negative campaigns9
Negative Campaigns
  • Recent examples
  • Bush v. Kerry, 2004
    • SwiftBoat Vets
      • Independent hit from 527 org
  • Windsurfing
    • Just for fun…
    • Policy content? No appeal to fear?
negative campaigns10
Negative Campaigns
  • Recent examples
    • McCain 2008
    • Obama 2008
negative campaigns11
Negative Campaigns
  • What lessons
  • Some on winning side, some on losing side
  • Potential to define a candidate
    • Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry
  • Potential to de-mobilize (this may be goal)
  • Potential for blowback
    • Clinton ‘08 (3am ad)
negative campaigns12
Negative Campaigns
  • When wrong
  • What criteria to say, too negative?
    • Fear
    • Race
    • Religion
    • Policy?
    • Do we learn something…(other than fear, race, religion..)
the virtue of negative ads
The Virtue of Negative Ads
  • What effects; Prof. John G. Geer
  • Is there policy content/ learning
    • To change, to hold accountable, to change status quo needs being critical
    • Must have ‘vetting’
  • Analysis of ballot initiative ads
  • The Geer ad