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Status of Global Wind Power

Status of Global Wind Power. Steve Sawyer Secretary General Global Wind Energy Council. World Energy Solutions Conference Sao Paulo 23 November 2007. GWEC: Uniting the Global Wind Industry. Associations:. Companies:. Overview.

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Status of Global Wind Power

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  1. Status of Global Wind Power Steve Sawyer Secretary General Global Wind Energy Council World Energy Solutions Conference Sao Paulo 23 November 2007

  2. GWEC: Uniting the Global Wind Industry Associations: Companies:

  3. Overview • Massive investment in renewables globally; wind getting the lion’s share of asset investment; • Wind power growth rate globally continues very strong – at the upper range (or above) projections; • Industry becoming global – European dominance lessening • Massive investment in new manufacturing capacity – China and the US - but supply still lags demand; • Climate Imperative – eyes on 2020

  4. Global Cumulative Installed Capacity 1995-2006

  5. Global Cumulative Installed Capacity 1995-2006 -> Growth in 2006: 25.6%

  6. Top 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity

  7. Top 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity Spain and US neck and neck

  8. Top 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity Spain and US neck and neck China on 6th place (up from 8th)

  9. Top 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity Spain and US neck to neck China on 6th place (up from 8th) Down from 87.6% in 2005

  10. Global Annual Installed Capacity 1995-2006

  11. Global Annual Installed Capacity 1995-2006 -> Growth in 2006: + 31.8% (2005: + 40.5%), despite supply chain difficulties

  12. Top 10 New Installed Capacity 2006

  13. Top 10 New Installed Capacity 2006 China 2nd in 2007? New in top 10 Down from 86.9% in 2005

  14. Annual Installed Capacity by Region 50.1% 24.2% 21.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7%

  15. Global Development to 2050

  16. % of Global Electricity Supply After 2 years, actual performance is ahead of Advanced Scenario 1500 million tonnes of CO2/annum

  17. Conclusions • Advanced Scenario is closest to reality at the moment; 2006/07 ahead of advanced scenario; • Growth rates since 2000 have averaged 28%. • Capital costs: demand and commodity markets driving prices up…and will continue to as long as there’s very high demand and more investor interest than available projects; • China and US becoming major markets – US firmly in place as market leader – expected to install 4 GW in 2007; China exceeding advanced scenario, will meet its 2010 target this year; • Three dominant markets: China, US, Europe.

  18. Conclusions (2) • Impact of Climate Policy: • Imperative for global emissions peak prior to 2020; • Power sector is largest source of emissions - 38% of CO2, and about 25% of overall emissions; • In practical terms, there are 3 options for making major emissions reductions in the power sector out to 2020: Efficiency; Fuel switching from coal to gas; and Wind Power; • Wind energy is most cost-effective and timely option on the supply side out to 2020; • Post 2012 carbon market design will have major impact; • Will 2600 Twh/year be sufficient?

  19. Thank you For more information: Steve Sawyer +32 2 400 1030 steve.sawyer@gwec.net www.gwec.net

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