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Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture

Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture. Management of climatic risks is important for meeting challenges. Drought: 2/3 land is rainfed; 26 droughts in last 130 years; 1987 and 2002 major drought year; even irrigation system is monsoon dependent

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Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture

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  1. Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture

  2. Management of climatic risks is important for meeting challenges • Drought: 2/3 land is rainfed; 26 droughts in last 130 years; 1987 and 2002 major drought year; even irrigation system is monsoon dependent • Flood: frequent, especially in eastern India • Frost: common in north-western India • Heat: frequent episodes • Cyclones: in eastern coast

  3. Climatic risks associated with global warming are increasing • Increase in temperatures, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves. Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years. • Increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events- more droughts and floods • Tropical cyclones to become more intense, with heavier precipitation.

  4. Changes in annual mean surface air temperature (°C) for 2071-2100 relative to baseline (1961-1990)

  5. Changes in rainfall (%) for the period 2071-2100 relative to baseline (1961-1990)

  6. Changes in Extreme Rainfall Rainy Days Intensity (mm/Day)

  7. Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) system in IARI

  8. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture • CO2 fertilization benefits = < 10% average • In short-term, impacts of mean changes in climate are likely to be small • In long run, impacts are likely to be large. Crop productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100. • Some improvement in chickpea, mustard; rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and coconut in west coast; less frost damage in potato, peas, mustard • Impact on livestock, fisheries and pests • Impact on food trade

  9. Heavy precipitation events in India have increased during last 50 years Light to moderate rainfall events (5-100 mm) Heavy rainfall events (>10cm) Very heavy rainfall events (>15cm) Source: IITM, Goswami et al. 2006; data is the frequency in each of 143 grids in the region

  10. Managing increasing climatic variability is likely to be difficult but is critical • Increased frequency of short-episodes of • droughts • floods • heat • These are likely to significantly increase production variability

  11. Yield loss in Sorghum due to short periods of drought in Rajasthan

  12. Traditional adaptations/coping strategies to climatic stress practiced by farmers • Drought proofing by mixed cropping • Changing varieties / crops / planting time: matching crop phenology with weather/water availability • Diversifying income sources including livestock raising

  13. Limitations of available adaptation strategies • Limited local relief • Time lag in responses at all scales • Availability of seeds of adapted varieties and other technologies at a short notice • Once planted, only limited relief is possible • Unpredictable extreme events complicate further • Need for other adaptation strategies

  14. Adaptation strategies to climate change in agriculture • Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks • Intensify food production systems • Improve land and water management • Enabling policies and regional cooperation • Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacityand mitigation potential

  15. Adaptation strategies in agriculture:Assist farmers to cope with current climatic risks • Establishing an early warning system of climatic risks/disasters • Promoting insurance for climatic risk management • Strengthening pest surveillance and forecasting mechanisms

  16. Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Intensify food production systems Yield gaps in soybean in India • Bridge yield gaps in crops and regions • Quality seed • Integrated nutrient management • Integrated pest management • Demonstrations of new technologies • Farmers training Demand by 2020

  17. Adaptation strategies in agriculture:Enabling policies and regional cooperation • Integrating adaptation perspectives in current policy considerations • Providing financial incentives for resource conservation • Securing finances and technologies for adaptation

  18. Adaptation strategies in agriculture: Strengthen research on adaptation • Assess regional impacts on crops, livestock, fisheries, pests, and microbes • Evolve ‘adverse climate tolerant’ genotypes and land use systems • Re-examine water and fertilizer management for adaptation and mitigation • Study dynamics of pest movements and virulence

  19. Conclusions • Climate change is a reality • Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses in long run due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability • Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts to some extent • These need research and policy support

  20. Recent initiatives of ICAR • A Network on Climate Change launched in 2004, currently 23 centers all over India • Multi-Disciplinary Expert Group established for planning and monitoring • Climate change a priority area for National Agricultural Innovations Project (NAIP) funding • Thrust areas prioritized through a National Conference in October 2007 • Briefings for State Agriculture Ministers and MPs

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