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Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia. Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev US Embassy Tashkent. These slides are personal opinion only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government. Central Asian ESTH News.

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hydropower flashpoints and water security challenges in central asia

Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia

Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev

US Embassy Tashkent

These slides are personal opinion only.

They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.

slide2

Central Asian ESTH News

Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region

02/11/2008

Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the People

03/03/2007

World Bank Group Statement on Water-Energy in Central Asia

03/11/2010

Tajikistan Warns Of Possible Water Shortage Crisis

01/21/2009

Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Uzbek Electricity Talks

01/21/2009

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro Power Station, Despite

Uzbekistan’s Objection

04/12/2009

Uzbekistan Will Halve Energy To Tajikistan

02/12/2010

Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute?

04/22/2006

Battle Lines Drawn In Central Asian Water Dispute

04/19/2006

Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations

03/12/2009

Tajik President Asks UN to Help Solve Central Asia’s Water Problem

04/15/2007

slide6

Total water resources: 116 km3/year

50%

52%

25%

20%

10%

10%

2%

5%

11%

1%

5%/ 12%

new dimensions of regional security in central asia
New dimensions of regional security in Central Asia

90% and 95% of energy in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come from hydro

Energy Security

Food

Security

Water Security

Food security/Water scarcity/Access to Water/Pro-poor Irrigation

Environ-mental Security

Environmental refugees

(Environment and Security Initiative)

Water security is a common feature

understanding central asia

NATION-BUILDING

HISTORY

LEGACY

RELIGION

ECONOMICS

POLITICS

SECURITY

GEOPOLITICS

Understanding Central Asia
understanding water in central asia

Crumbling infrastructure

Planned Projects

Resource sovereignty

Access to water

Environmental security

Drought & floods

Rivalry

Energy security

Water for Afghanistan

Climate change

Declaratory regionalism

Understanding Water in Central Asia
slide11

Amu-Darya and Syr-Darya Rivers

(116 km3)

Total

(129 km3=100%)

Natural

losses

(6.5 km3=5%)

Return water

33 km3=29%

Back to rivers

(18 km3=55%)

Reused water

(5 km3=15%)

Discharged into

depressions

(10 km3=30%)

Aral Sea Basin

Water Balance

Groundwater

(13 km3)

Total

withdrawals

(120 km3=93%)

Irrigation, 90%

Industry, 5.4%

Drinking, 3.2%

Env. flow, 1.4%

Aral Sea

(N/A)

central asian water related agreements

Date/place

Parties

Title

Governing Rules

Institutions

02/18/1992

Almaty, Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Agreement on Cooperation in Management of Use and Protection of Water Resources of Interstate Sources

Soviet time water allocation rules prevail; joint decision making; not to cause harm

ICWC; BWO Amu-Darya; BWO Syr-Darya

03/26/1993

Kyzylorda,

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Agreement on Joint Activities to Address the Aral Sea Issues

Sustainable development; obligation to cooperate

ICAS/IFAS

01/16/1996

Charjev, Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Agreement on Cooperation in Water Management Issues

50/50 division of Amu-Darya flow at Kerki river post

TM Ministry of Water, UZ Ministry of Ag and Water

04/17/1998

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan

Agreement on Use of Water and Energy Resources of Syr-Darya Basin

Irrigation-energy trade-offs

BWO Syr-Darya

UDC Energy

Central Asian Water Related Agreements
central asian regional institutions

International Fund to Save

the Aral Sea (IFAS) President

Interstate Commission

for Water Coordination

Interstate

Commission for Sustainable

Development

BWO

Syr-Darya

(Tashkent)

BWO

Amu-Darya

(Urgench)

Secretariat

Scientific Information Center

(Ashgabat)

Scientific-Information Center

(Tashkent)

Central Asian Regional Institutions

HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL

EC IFAS Branch

in Nukus,

Uzbekistan

IFAS

Board of Directors

IFAS

Executive Committee

(Almaty)

EC IFAS Branch

in Kyzylorda,

Kazakhstan

EC IFAS Branch

in Dashauz,

Turkmenistan

slide14

SANGTUDA 1 & 2

Status: Under construction

Purpose: Hydropower

Duration: 2005-2010

Capacity: 670+220 MW

Cost: 650 and 182 Million USD

TAJIKISTAN

1

ROGHUN

UZBEKISTAN

Shurob

2

ROGHUN

Status: Under construction

Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation

Volume: 13 km3

Capacity: 3600 MW

Cost: 2.2-5 Billion USD

NUREK

3

Baipaza

4

TURKMENISTAN

DASHTIJUM

5

Sangtuda-1

6

Status: Proposed

Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation

Volume: 17.6 km3

Capacity: 4000 MW

Cost: 3.2 Billion USD

Sangtuda-2

7

Golovnaya

Perepadnaya

8

10

DASHTIJUM

Tsentralnaya

9

AFGHANISTAN

slide15

Unilateral developmentsSyr-Darya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan

Koksaray Reservoir in KZ

Kambarata I&II Projects in KG

Status: Under construction

Status: Under construction

Status: Completed

Purpose: Hydropower

Volume: 4.7 km3

Duration: 2005-2010

Capacity: 190+360 MW

Cost: 2.2 Billion USD

Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases

Volume: 2.5 km3

Duration: 2004-20--

Cost: N/A

Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases

Volume: 3 km3

Duration: 2007-2010

Cost: 200 Million USD

Fergana Reservoirs in UZ

unilateral developments golden century lake of turkmenistan

Karashor Depression:

Golden Century Lake site

Status: Under construction

Purpose: Agricultural development

Duration: 2002-2022

Volume: 132 km3

Cost: 9 Billion USD

Golden Century Canal

Amudarya River

Karakum Canal

Unilateral developmentsGolden Century Lake of Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Afghanistan

Iran

slide17

[possible] Unilateral DevelopmentAmu-Darya River Basin: Afghanistan

STATUS-QUO

  • According to the 1946 agreement between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km3/yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km3/yr.

POTENTIAL IMPACT

  • Full use of Afghanistan’s quota for water use from the Pyanj (9 km3/yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement, could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj and would have a significant impact on the downstream flow regime of the Amu-Darya.

PROPOSED PROJECTS

  • Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km3/yr.
riparian positions tajikistan
Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN

Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009

  • “…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…”
  • “…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…”

Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon,

UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York

  • “…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are being constructed…”

Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009

  • “…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…”

Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

riparian positions kyrgyzstan
Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN
  • “…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a launching of the first hydro-generator of Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the country. Construction and launch of this HPP demonstrates the power of our country, and we do not intend to abandon the constructions of Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able to live well in both winter and summer, and are increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of course, we will cooperate on this plan with Uzbekistan…”
  • “…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan…”

Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit of hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2, 08/30/2010

Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010

Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit, 09/27/2010, New York

riparian positions uzbekistan
Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN
  • “…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate existing agreements and are against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries…”

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008

  • “…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include independent authoritative experts…”

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009

President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov,

UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York

  • “…In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts…”

Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the

International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008

  • “… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…”

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009

  • “…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller hydropower plants…”

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/24/2009

riparian positions kazakhstan
Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN
  • “…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until the results of [international] expert testing are available, no dam should be built…”

Remarks of President Nazarbayev,

Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010

President of Kazakhstan

Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev,

United Nations

  • “…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?…”

Remarks of President Nazarbayev,

Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010

  • “…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of water management…”

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan

www.mfa.kz

riparian positions turkmenistan
Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN
  • “…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on the universally accepted norms and principles of international law taking into account the interests of all States in the region and with participation of international organizations…”

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,

IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

  • “…the need for mandatory and transparent independent international technical, economic and environmental impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at their early design stages…”

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,

IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

  • “… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of water…”

President of Turkmenistan

Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov,

UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,

IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

  • “…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers...”

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009

slide23

Planned Roghun HPP & Reservoir on the Vakhsh River (Embassy Dushanbe)

Roghun site 2008

  • Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts. Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake;
  • Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system: upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode, the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode;
  • Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan;
  • Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors – anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot hold back water;
  • Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is killing the Aral Sea;
  • Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs because it is excluded from regional exchanges.

Roghun site 2010

Nurek Dam

Nurek reservoir

government of uzbekistan expert opinion on roghun november 2008
Government of Uzbekistan Expert Opinion on Roghun (November 2008)
  • Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules;
  • Amu-Darya’s natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct);
  • Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream (22% less water on average);
  • The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU;
  • Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands;
  • Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated fields downstream;
  • $4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields, processing and fishing industry;
  • $146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands, pastures, extinction of animal and bird species);
  • Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million people in Turkmenistan;
  • Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million people in downstream;
  • Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with daily regulation of storages.
timeline of water related institutional and treaty events

1991

2003

2001

1991

1999

1991

2004

2002

1992

1992

1992

2000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

2005

2006

2007-11

Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events

1993: Commonwealth

of Independent

States

2001: Eurasian

Economic

Community

1998: UN Special

Program for Economies

of Central Asia

1994: Central Asian

Economic

Cooperation

2001: TW Framework Agreement between

KZ and CN

2006: MoU

between

AF and TJ

2009: Heads of State Joint Statement

1995: Nukus

Declaration

of Heads of State

2000: KZ accedes

to 1992 UNECE

Water Convention

Collapse of USSR

2010: Aral Sea

Basin Program

Phase III

1993: Kyzylorda

Agreement:

ICAS / IFAS

1998: Syrdarya

Framework

Agreement

2002: Dushanbe

Declaration

of Heads of State

1992: Almaty

Agreement:

ICWC, BWOs

1996: Amudarya

Agreement between

UZ and TU

2000: Chu-Talas

Agreement between

KG and KZ

2006: Framework

Agreement on

EP and SD in CA

1999: Agreements

on (1) Hydrometeorology

and (2) Parallel Operation

of Energy Systems

2007: UZ accedes

to 1992 UNECE

and 1997 UN

Water Conventions

1994: Aral Sea

Basin Program

Phase I

2002: Aral Sea

Basin Program

Phase II

1992: Economic

Cooperation

Organization

1997: Central Asian

Economic Cooperation

Organization

2001: Shanghai

Cooperation

Organization

slide27

Our Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.

the aral sea
The Aral Sea

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011