International Demands on Crime Statistics Geneva, November 3, 2004 Wolfgang RhombergUNODC, Research and Analysis Section
Not everything that can be counted, counts. And not everything that counts can be counted.” Albert Einstein
Crime related database Surveys on Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems Collect data on the incidence of reported crime Collect data on the operations of criminal justice systems Improve analysis and dissemination of information Informed decision making in administration, nationally and internationally ECOSOC res. 1984/48 25 May 1984
Conceptual models Every model needs a purpose Modelling implies Omission Distortion Generalization Who are we doing it for? Systems thinking approach
ICVS (victims) WCTS (police) - (media) - (insurance companies) Different conceptual models lead to different results
8th UNWCTS • 4 Parts: Police, Prosecution, Courts, Prisons • 19 Tables: 4 + 3 + 4 + 8 • 164 Variables/Year: 48 + 30 + 36 + 50 • Web: http://www.unodc.org/unodc/crime_cicp_surveys.html • Available for download in 6 UN languages
8th UNWCTS Table 2 of the questionnaire(Crimes recorded in criminal (police) statistics, by type of crime including attempts to commit crimes, 2001 – 2002)lists the following 18 types of offences: 2.1 Total recorded crimes, regardless of type;Intentional homicide:2.2 Committed; 2.3 Attempted; and 2.4 Committed with a firearm; 2.5 Non-intentional homicide;Assault: 2.6 Major assault; 2.7 Total assault;2.8 Rape; 2.9 Robbery;Theft: 2.10 Major theft; 2.11 Total theft; 2.12 Automobile theft;2.13 Burglary; 2.14 Fraud; 2.15 Embezzlement;2.16 Drug-related crime; 2.17 Bribery and/or corruption;2.18 Kidnapping
Criminals ? Cost of crime ? Proceeds of crime ? Attrition rates ? CJS efficiency ? Crime infection rates ? Security and quality of life ? Policy impact
On reporting: Who? (and who not) What? When? (input vs. output) How? For whom? For what purpose? Feedback? Meta statistics • On statistics, how: • accurate? • complete? • timely? • reliable? • consistent? • comparable?
Federal – State Different Police Organizations Reporting chains, consolidation Statistical institutes - Ministries Who reports?
Example given: “significant drug seizure” What is significant? Which drug? Purity? What is being reported?
Is it relevant? Is the answer available? Is there a clear unit of measurement? Semantics? Less is more Small is beautiful Reductio ad absurdum Statistic
Input statistics vs output statistics This years convictions vs last years arrests Media of reporting (double count) When and How
Dynamic crime models Offensive Eliminate the Causes Defensive Minimize Likelihood of Significant Impact decrease increase Disagreement escalates to Violence Anti Corruption Initiative
UN Crime Trends Survey Crimes Suspects Personsconvicted Prisoners Counts/year Counts/year Counts/year Counts on given day
Delays Seemingly stabilized system becomes unstable after a long time
United Nations Convention against Corruption United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Air and Sea Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, Their Parts and Components and Ammunition Crime Conventions
Please consider: Objectives, conceptual models Meta statistics Keep to essentials Reporting chains Alternative solutions Individual statistics Interpretation of data Crime conventions Wish list