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Emission Inventory Construction in Asia. David G. Streets Argonne National Laboratory, USA ACCENT/GEIA Workshop on Anthropogenic emissions for non-OECD countries in global inventories IIASA, Austria February 8-10, 2006. Energy Use.

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emission inventory construction in asia

Emission Inventory Construction in Asia

David G. StreetsArgonne National Laboratory, USAACCENT/GEIA Workshop onAnthropogenic emissions for non-OECD countries in global inventoriesIIASA, AustriaFebruary 8-10, 2006

general methodology used for developing asian emission estimates at regional scale
Energy UseGeneral methodology used for developingAsian emission estimates at regional scale

Other human activities

Biomass

burning

Technology

Model

Activity

data

Biogenic, Volcanic, Dust

Emission factors, Regulations

Natural emissions

Emission

Controls

Anthropogenic emissions

“Total” emissions

…for regulatory analysis

…for scientific analysis

slide3
The TRACE-P inventory (Streets et al., JGR, 108, 8809, 2003):SO2, NOx, CO2, CO, CH4, NMVOC (19 classes), BC, OC, NH3

SO2

Yr 2000

30x30 min

http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/EMISSION_DATA/index_16.htm

slide4
Experiments such as TRACE-P and ACE-Asia employ mobile “super-sites” and provide opportunities to study emissions

Surprisingly high values of some species, particularly CO and BC, observed close to the coast of China

China

Spring 2001

slide5
SpeciesObservedModeled

CO, ppbv 219 203

Ethane, ppbv 2.0 1.6

Propane, ppbv 0.62 0.46

Ethene, ppbv 0.18 0.20

Ethyne, ppbv 0.78 0.63

SO2, ppbv 1.55 1.04

NO2, ppbv 0.27 0.25

NO, ppbv 0.035 0.041

Benzene + toluene, ppbv 0.33 0.19

BC, mg m-3 0.84 0.67

Comparison of observed and STEM-simulated mean concentrations for TRACE-P DC-8 flights ataltitudes below 1 km showedquite good agreement
though the trace p inventory seems good for most species co is under estimated in the yellow sea
Though the TRACE-P inventory seems good for mostspecies, CO is under-estimated in the Yellow Sea

Model under-prediction

slide7
Emission Inventory Methods:

80-110 Tg for China; 100-130 Tg for East Asia

(EDGAR, TRACE-P, Tonooka et al., IPCC)

Chemical Transport Modeling and Inverse Modeling:

150-180 Tg for China; 190-220 Tg for East Asia

(Palmer et al., Tan et al., Arellano et al., Heald et al.)

Further analysis of TRACE-P CO showed a significant disagreement between inventories and atmospheric modeling
slide8

Detailed characterization of technology is necessaryto improve CO, PM, and HC emission estimates(Zhang Qiang and He Kebin, Tsinghua University)

Good Efficiency

Moderate Efficiency

Poor Efficiency

improved co emission inventory for china
Improved CO emission inventory for China

36% increase

Most of the increase in CO emissions is in the industrial sector, and is due to higher emission factors for small kilns and boilers.

slide10

Performance of STEM model with new CO emissions: better correlation, but under-prediction at high concentrations remains (spatial resolution issue?)

surrogate data sets are used for spatial allocation

Ship lanes

Surrogate data sets are used for spatial allocation

Regional Emissions

LPS & Volcanoes

Population

Land cover

Road networks

Precipitation

Fire counts

TOMS AI

slide12

Rapid development of industrial and commercial areas can change the spatial patterns of emissions in just a few years(e.g., Shenzhen, Dongguan)

Guangzhou

2003

1993

Courtesy of Jimmy Fung, HKUST

TRACE-P SO2 emissions at 30 sec. resolution (~700 m) for the Pearl River Delta (~150 km x 150 km) are based on mid-1990s spatial allocation factors

Hong Kong

Macau/Zhuhai

time development of emissions can also be an issue coal consumption in china 1995 2003
Time development of emissions can also be an issue:Coal consumption in China, 1995-2003

Annual Rate (total): 3.7% (1995-2003)

Energy data are from China Energy Statistical Yearbook

slide14
Satellite imagery (GOME and SCIAMACHY) is providing important new information on emissions (Richter et al., Nature, Sept 1, 2005)
no x concentrations do not show a big increase through 2002 hao and wang jawma 55 1298 1305 2005
NOx concentrations do not show a big increase through 2002 (Hao and Wang, JAWMA, 55, 1298-1305, 2005)

Change of standard

annual average so 2 concentrations in chinese cities hao and wang jawma 55 1298 1305 2005
Annual average SO2 concentrations in Chinese cities (Hao and Wang, JAWMA, 55, 1298-1305, 2005)

Emissions shift: cities to suburbs to towns to countryside?

slide18
Particulate matter is a continuing problem in Chinese cities (including regional fine PM), and PM inventories are poor
slide19
Climate concerns have prompted work onthe PM components BC and OC for China(adapted from Zhang Xiao-Ye, CMA)

FF only

FF only

BC

FF only

OC

mercury emissions in china streets et al atmos env 39 7789 2005
Mercury emissions in China(Streets et al., Atmos. Env., 39, 7789, 2005)

Annual Rate (total): 2.9% (1995-2003)

Total Emissions: 552.2 tons (1995)

695.5 tons (2003)

we are starting a new joint usepa sepa project to improve regional emission inventories for china
We are starting a new, joint USEPA/SEPA project to improve regional emission inventories for China

1 Compare TRACE-P and other China inventories.

2 Focus on key regions: Beijing/Tianjin/Bohai, Shanghai/Yangzi Delta,

Guangzhou/Hong Kong/PRD (possibly also Sichuan Basin).

3 Identify key gaps and uncertainties.

4 Improve EI data and methods and update to 2003/2004.

5 Test inventories in regional AQ models.

6 Transfer EI capability to regions.