Emission Inventory Construction in Asia. David G. Streets Argonne National Laboratory, USA ACCENT/GEIA Workshop on Anthropogenic emissions for non-OECD countries in global inventories IIASA, Austria February 8-10, 2006. Energy Use.
David G. StreetsArgonne National Laboratory, USAACCENT/GEIA Workshop onAnthropogenic emissions for non-OECD countries in global inventoriesIIASA, AustriaFebruary 8-10, 2006
Other human activities
Biogenic, Volcanic, Dust
Emission factors, Regulations
…for regulatory analysis
…for scientific analysis
Surprisingly high values of some species, particularly CO and BC, observed close to the coast of China
CO, ppbv 219 203
Ethane, ppbv 2.0 1.6
Propane, ppbv 0.62 0.46
Ethene, ppbv 0.18 0.20
Ethyne, ppbv 0.78 0.63
SO2, ppbv 1.55 1.04
NO2, ppbv 0.27 0.25
NO, ppbv 0.035 0.041
Benzene + toluene, ppbv 0.33 0.19
BC, mg m-3 0.84 0.67Comparison of observed and STEM-simulated mean concentrations for TRACE-P DC-8 flights ataltitudes below 1 km showedquite good agreement
80-110 Tg for China; 100-130 Tg for East Asia
(EDGAR, TRACE-P, Tonooka et al., IPCC)
Chemical Transport Modeling and Inverse Modeling:
150-180 Tg for China; 190-220 Tg for East Asia
(Palmer et al., Tan et al., Arellano et al., Heald et al.)Further analysis of TRACE-P CO showed a significant disagreement between inventories and atmospheric modeling
Detailed characterization of technology is necessaryto improve CO, PM, and HC emission estimates(Zhang Qiang and He Kebin, Tsinghua University)
Most of the increase in CO emissions is in the industrial sector, and is due to higher emission factors for small kilns and boilers.
Performance of STEM model with new CO emissions: better correlation, but under-prediction at high concentrations remains (spatial resolution issue?)
LPS & Volcanoes
Rapid development of industrial and commercial areas can change the spatial patterns of emissions in just a few years(e.g., Shenzhen, Dongguan)
Courtesy of Jimmy Fung, HKUST
TRACE-P SO2 emissions at 30 sec. resolution (~700 m) for the Pearl River Delta (~150 km x 150 km) are based on mid-1990s spatial allocation factors
Annual Rate (total): 3.7% (1995-2003)
Energy data are from China Energy Statistical Yearbook
Change of standard
Emissions shift: cities to suburbs to towns to countryside?
Annual Rate (total): 2.9% (1995-2003)
Total Emissions: 552.2 tons (1995)
695.5 tons (2003)
1 Compare TRACE-P and other China inventories.
2 Focus on key regions: Beijing/Tianjin/Bohai, Shanghai/Yangzi Delta,
Guangzhou/Hong Kong/PRD (possibly also Sichuan Basin).
3 Identify key gaps and uncertainties.
4 Improve EI data and methods and update to 2003/2004.
5 Test inventories in regional AQ models.
6 Transfer EI capability to regions.