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Assessing Future Benefits of Fossil Energy R&D Programs: Insights and Challenges

This document explores the prospective benefits of Fossil Energy (FE) R&D programs, focusing on two main areas: Fossil Fuel Conversion and Fossil Energy Resources. It highlights the differing nature of these programs and their associated benefits, outlining the current market-oriented analyses that project future deployments. Furthermore, it discusses the lack of assessments regarding the "option value" of R&D in tackling future technological advancements. The potential for substantial greenhouse gas reductions through increased power plant efficiency and carbon sequestration technologies is also examined.

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Assessing Future Benefits of Fossil Energy R&D Programs: Insights and Challenges

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  1. Measuring Prospective Benefitsfor FE R&D Programs • Most estimation of past Fossil Energy (FE) R&D benefits has focused on two broad program categories: • Fossil Fuel Conversion: conversion of coal and gas to electricity and other fuels • Fossil Energy Resources: domestic oil and gas supply • The nature of these programs and their benefits are very different, which has led to much different approaches for calculating future benefits.

  2. Assessment Aproach • Most analyses have been “market-oriented”, based on projecting future deployment and estimating benefits associated with quantity deployed. • No analysis to date of the “option value” of R&D, although this could have advantages for addressing future technologies.

  3. Greenhouse Gas Reductions Carbon Emissions From Electric Generators • Power plant efficiency increases about 50% over today’s deployed plants • Sequestration is available >2015 to greatly reduce carbon emissions, if needed Sequestration begins in 2015 on new units 900 800 700 600 500 Million Metric Tons per Year 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Nat. Gas- Reduction from BAU Coal/Advanced Oil Coal- Reduction from BAU Natural Gas/Adv.

  4. Meyers’s Law It is a simple task to make things complex, but a complex task to make them simple.

  5. TORIS Oil Model

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