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Risk Assessment Seminar 2 nd December 2009 – Session for Market Surveillance officials –

Risk Assessment Seminar 2 nd December 2009 – Session for Market Surveillance officials –. Presentation and discussion o f cases - Sky lantern - Dirk van Aken NL Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority. Open balloon with burner Released on special occasions (weddings etc.)

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Risk Assessment Seminar 2 nd December 2009 – Session for Market Surveillance officials –

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  1. Risk Assessment Seminar 2nd December 2009 – Session for Market Surveillance officials– Presentation and discussion of cases - Sky lantern - Dirk van Aken NL Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority

  2. Open balloon with burner Released on special occasions (weddings etc.) Sales in NL: ~ 700.000 per year The product The product

  3. Approach in NL • Research • Risk of fire depends on properties of the product combined with the flight behaviour • Flammability of the material • Flight behaviour: duration, climbing height, flying distance • Advice by Office for Risk Assessment • Meetings with importers

  4. Scenarios (1) • The balloon is released in wind conditions that make it unstable. Swinging motion causes fire. It falls on flammable dry material, e.g. grass or heathland in summer or close to houses. A fire occurs, with or without victims. • The balloon is released in wind conditions that make it lose hot air. It lands with active burner on flammable dry material, e.g. grass or heathland in summer or close to houses. A fire occurs, with or without victims.

  5. Scenarios (2) • While igniting the burner, some burning material drips onto the hand or arm of the user. The user gets burn injuries.

  6. Estimated probability factors (1) • Using balloon at > 2 Bft 0.8 • Balloon catching fire if used at > 2 Bft 0.001 • Balloon going down because of rocking at > 2 Bft 0.01 • Balloon setting fire to dry material: 0.01~10% of land surface is dry nature in NL~10% of year it is dry enough

  7. Estimated probability factors (2) • Balloon setting fire to house 0.01~5% of land surface is built in NL~20% of balloons landing on house causes fire • Fatality in house fire (NL fire statistics) 30/7,000

  8. Risk Assessment Scenarios (1) Risk Assessment Scenarios (1)

  9. Risk Assessment Scenarios (2) Risk Assessment Scenarios (2)

  10. Risk Assessment Scenarios (3) Risk Assessment Scenarios (3)

  11. Conclusions Conclusions • Highest risk identified for sky lantern is “medium risk” • Low probability matches experience • Uncertainty about several factors • Sensitivity analysis: if probability increases by 30%, two more scenarios become “medium”

  12. Discussion Discussion • Risk depending on location? • Comparable with fireworks? • Options to reduce risks • forbid use/release of sky lanterns • forbid sale • strong warning to users

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