World Bank's Performance in Addressing Shared Global Challenges

1. 2008 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Shared Global Challenges Thomas O΄Brien Lead Economist ODI, London October 6, 2008

2. 2008 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Shared Global Challenges Vinod Thomas Director-General, Evaluation ODI, London October 6, 2008

3. 2008 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Shared Global Challenges Thomas O΄Brien Lead Economist ODI, London October 6, 2008

4. Evidence on the World Bank’s efforts on two important and interconnected areas: • Part I: Tracking Bank Performance • Part II: Shared Global Challenges

5. The share of Bank lending meeting targeted development objectives improved over the medium term 90% 80% Share of projects with outcomes moderately satisfactory or better 70% by number of projects weighted by value of project disbursements 60% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Last Exit FY of 3-year rolling average

6. Most of the improvement is at the “middle-ground”

7. Social Transport Finance Water Improvers Rural Bankwide Energy FY03-FY07 Economic Policy FY98-FY02 Environment 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% • Performance by economic sector varies significantly

8. Health Decliners Public Sector Governance Urban FY03-FY07 FY98-FY02 Education 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% • Performance by economic sector varies significantly 8

9. Performance improved across all Regions • Sub-saharan Africa especially large uplift, but still lags behind

10. Project performance dropped significantly in FY07 100% 90% 80% moderately satisfactory or better 70% Share of projects with outcomes 60% 50% 40% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Exit FY 10

11. Five factors have influenced weak project outcomes: • Overly complex (not matched by capacity) • Overly ambitious • Delays in implementation as circumstances changed • Weak results framework • Poor Bank performance, including weak supervision

12. A big “disconnect” between the World Bank’s self-ratings during implementation and IEG’s ex-post evaluations 2005 2006 2007 7.1 points 8.5 points 17.2 points

13. 45 unsatisfactory projects in FY07 29 percent (13 projects) Poor performance flagged in real time Unsatisfactory outcomes unanticipated during implementation 71 percent (32 projects) Overoptimism impairs real-time “managing for results”

14. Securing strong development outcomes at the country level is more challenging

15. Two lessons for better tracking of World Bank performance: • Practical steps to ‘close the disconnect’ and improve M&E • Strengthen the evaluation knowledge base for the Bank’s corporate results.

16. Evidence on the World Bank’s efforts on two important and interconnected areas: • Part I: Tracking Bank Performance • Part II: Shared Global Challenges

17. Shared Global Challenges • The World Bank focuses on five main strands: • Environmental commons • Communicable diseases • International trading regime • International financial architecture • Global knowledge for development

18. Why examine these shared global • challenges now? • The fight against poverty is increasingly intertwined with shared global challenges • The Bank has promoted fostering global public goods in its new strategy 18

19. The Bank’s country-based model is a double-edged sword • In some circumstances it works well . . . • In others it comes under strain . . .

20. Sector and regional strategies Country strategies • The Bank’s attention to global public goods wanes from high level strategies downwards Corporate strategies

21. Three levers for the Bank in moving from • strategy to action at the country level • Resource allocation • Financing instruments • Global programs

22. Beyond country support— • the importance of advocacy • The experience with advocacy on: • International trade • Avian influenza • Environmental commons

23. Global Advocacy: Global programs • Developing country voices remain under- represented in governance • The new climate change programs must ensure sound and equitable governance

24. Lessons from Experience • Will you still need me? Will you still feed me? When I’m . . . Sixty Four

25. How can the World Bank improve its support for • shared global challenges? • New approaches to setting budgets and recognizing performance • Clearer organizational arrangements to link together country, regional, and global initiatives • Give greater voice to developing countries in the governance of significant global programs

26. Conclusions • Meeting the shared global challenges of our time will be crucial to reducing poverty • The Bank’s role—particularly in supporting investments where global and local benefits diverge—is potentially pathbreaking

27. 2008 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Shared Global Challenges Thomas O΄Brien Lead Economist ODI, London October 6, 2008

28. 2008 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Shared Global Challenges Andrew Steer DFID ODI, London October 6, 2008

29. 2008 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Shared Global Challenges Alison Evans ODI ODI, London October 6, 2008

30. 2008 Annual Review of Development Effectiveness Shared Global Challenges Thomas O΄Brien Lead Economist ODI, London October 6, 2008