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The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030 & Impact Of Global Geopolitics

The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030 & Impact Of Global Geopolitics. Florida International University 29 th Annual Journalist & Editors Workshop on Latin America and the Caribbean “Latin America’s Energy Future”. Presented by: Dr. Eduardo G. Del Valle EGDV CONSULTANTS, INC

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The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030 & Impact Of Global Geopolitics

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  1. The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030 & Impact Of Global Geopolitics Florida International University29th Annual Journalist & Editors Workshopon Latin America and the Caribbean “Latin America’s Energy Future” Presented by: Dr. Eduardo G. Del Valle EGDV CONSULTANTS, INC Miami, May 5, 2011

  2. Energy sources evolve; new technologies have huge influence on both supply and demand Global Demand By Fuel 1980 – First U.S. windfarm consisting of 20 turbines built in New Hampshire Quadrillion BTUs Standard of living improved dramatically over past century driven by technology and abundant energy. By 2030 demand projected at 6 times 1950 level with increasing diverse energy mix; GDP 20 times 1950 level Other Renewables Nuclear 1901- First gasoline-powered automobile mass produced Hydro Gas 1954 – Modern silicon solar cell invented 1884- First steam turbine Oil 1859- First oil well drilled in Titusville, PA Coal Biomass 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil

  3. Energy Outlook Basis 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types technology & policy

  4. Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook • Resourcenationalismismakingaccessto new reserves more difficult and/or more costly • Examples: Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, someAfricancountries • Revolution in communicationsisincreasingsocietalexpectations in lessdevelopedcountries and social pressuresfor more freedom and a betterlife are building • 400 millionChinesewithcapacitytomovefrombicycletovehicles. Fromcookingwithwoodtocookingwithelectricity • India willfollow • Cumulativeenvironmentalimpact? • Chineseoilcompaniesaggressiveness in pursuit of new energy reserves is pre-empting Western Oilcompaniesfromeconomicallyaccessing new supplies. • Prrivate sector companiescannot compete withpromises of additionalChinesegovernmentassistanceforeconomic and social development • Up tonow Western governmenthaveabastainedfromreacting, butwillthisposturelast?

  5. Geopolitical Forces/Conflicts that Impact Outlook • The complex corporate social difficulties that arise working in unstable political/social environments that are prone to corruption and human rights violations • What is the appropriate responsibility of oil companies to ensure that human rights are respected and the monies generated from their investment are properly channeled for economic development • Should Western democracies develop legal protocols to assist oil companies in these complex balancing acts • Combination of producing countries budgetary pressures coupled with climate change uncertainties are making longer term planning and capital investment decisions increasingly complex and risky • Non-Opec production has been unable to keep up with growth in demand– not a good sign • Legal and regulatory framework: Climate change lesgislation, subsidies, environmental restrictions, government mandates and taxation • Middle East Instability – where will it lead? • There is no known technology today that is expected to have any major impact in altering the projected energy mix by 2030

  6. Population + Improved Standard of living Drives Energy Demand Growth Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.2%

  7. Economic Growth Fastest in Non-OECD GDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr. 2005-2030 China and India grow at 6%/yr Other Non OECD Africa Middle East Non OECD 4.9% ~ 40% of GDP by 2030 Latin America India China Other OECD OECD 2.0% Europe OECD United States Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook

  8. Expanding Economies Drive demand up by 35% OECD Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Non OECD demand up > 70%. Higher electricity demand and increased vehicle ownership due to rising prosperity OECD energy demand flat due to increased energy efficiency, even as GDP rises 60% Other Africa Middle East Other Latin America India Europe OECD China United States Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook

  9. Demand by Sector --Efficiency is key Demand would have grown by 84 MBDOE were not for efficiency gains Quadrillion BTUs 300 1.7% 2030 Transportation consumes 70% of oil demand 0.9% 167 2005 1.3% 0.3% Transportation

  10. Energy Efficiencies to Accelerate Efficiencygainssaves 55 MBDOE Rate of energy efficiency improvements expected to dramatically accelerate by 50% driven by higher prices and advances in technology Source: Energy Information Administration

  11. MBDOE Non OECD OECD Transportation Demand Grows 40% Light Duty Demand Demand Growth heavily concentrated in Asia. Rising personal income produces steep increase in vehicle ownership, up by 80% by 2030 MBDOE 400 million vehicles more than today, but demand offset by efficiency gains Rail Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty Personal Light Duty Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook

  12. k TWh Non OECD OECD Electricity Demand will grow by 80% By Region By Sector k TWh Demand will grow 150% in NonOECD in conjunction with broader prosperity and rising income Transportation Commercial Residential Other Industry Heavy Industry Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook

  13. Future U.S. Power Costs Baseload, Startup 2025 2010 cents/kWh $30/ton CO2 $60/ton CO2 $0/ton CO2 PV Thermal

  14. By Generation k TWh Gas Coal Nuclear Wind & Solar Other Renewables Oil Power Generation Mix Evolves Global Capacity Global Capacity Utilized GW Wind Nuclear Solar

  15. Power Generation by Fuel North America Europe Asia Pacific Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Natural Gas and Coal willshow the greatest growth. 90% of new power gen in China will be from Coal.A big impediment and source of conflict with the objective to reduce GHG. Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook

  16. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions By Region Emissions per Capita Billion Tons Tons per Person Energy related CO2 emissions inNon-OECD countries exceed by 40% those of OECD, and are doubling those of OECD by 2030 2005 2010 2030 Other Non OECD India China OECD Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook

  17. Global Demand by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Oil, Gas and Coal will still provide over 80% of total energy demand by 2030 World Average Growth/Yr. ’05 to ’30 – 1.2% 0.7% 2.0% 2030 0.7% 2005 2.3% 0.4% 2.1% 9.9% Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook

  18. Liquids Supply Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 MBDOE MBDOE 0.8% Liquids Demand ~36 ~35 ~29 Biofuels OPEC Crude NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other Canadian Oil Sands Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate Global Liquids Liquids Supply Dependence on OPEC will continue to grow 2030 OPEC Non-OPEC 2005 ~27

  19. Development Challenges and Solutions Increase Efficiency World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow 8 billion people 100% increase in global GDP 35% increase in energy demand 300 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiencyor equivalent to 55 MBDOE All reliable, affordable energy supplies needed Mitigate Emissions Expand Supplies

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