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Giuseppe Tullio – a professor of monetary economics at the University of Brescia, Italy

Inflation and Currency Depreciation in Germany, 1920-1923: A Dynamic Model of Prices and the Exchange Rate. Giuseppe Tullio – a professor of monetary economics at the University of Brescia, Italy. Brief Survey of the Literature. The Quantity Theory of Money Bresciani-Turroni (1937)

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Giuseppe Tullio – a professor of monetary economics at the University of Brescia, Italy

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  1. Inflation and Currency Depreciation in Germany, 1920-1923: A Dynamic Model of Prices and the Exchange Rate Giuseppe Tullio – a professor of monetary economics at the University of Brescia, Italy

  2. Brief Survey of the Literature • The Quantity Theory of Money • Bresciani-Turroni (1937) • Cagan (1956) • Graham (1930) • Jacobs (1975, 1976) • Kahn (1975, 1977a, 1977b, 1980) • Exchange Rate • Frenkel (1976) • Rational Expectations • Sargent and Wallace (1973) • Sargent (1977)

  3. Problems with First Strand • Autocorrelation of residuals in the estimates of the demand for real cash balances • Seems to be caused by a missing variable • Stability of the model • Unsatisfactory specification of the dynamic adjustment of prices to money creation

  4. Additional Problems • PPP did not hold during hyperinflation • Implies that the adjustment mechanism of prices to money creation is much more complicated than the one adopted in the Cagan and Frenkel system of differential equations

  5. Balance of Payments Theory • Main causes of inflation were • Wage Rigidities • Inelastic supply of German Exports • Low elasticity of demand for them by foreigners • The negative influence on the mark of reparation payments and of uncertainties about he progress of German-Allied negotiations

  6. Tullio’s “Correct” Model • Domestic and foreign currency substitution in the demand for real money balances • A dynamic mechanism allowing short-run deviation of the exchange rate from PPP • A feedback from prices to money

  7. Dynamic Model TABLE 1 A DYNAMIC MODEL OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES AND INFLATION • The Exchange Rate D ln S = (1) where the partial equilibrium level of the exchange rate, (Ŝ) is Ŝ = (1a) and bu is the demand for real cash balances: bȗ = (1b) 2. Prices D ln p = (2) And D = ƛ (D ln p - )(2a) 3. Supply of nominal cash balances (3) where y is potential output: Ӯ = (4)

  8. Explaining the Model • and • depends on • ( and

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