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Utilize PERT analysis with Bayes' theorem for route planning and optimization, calculate critical paths, and determine shortest routes efficiently.
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1A: E(X)=MAX EF =13 • 1B: CP = B-C-D • 1C: SIGMA = SQUARE ROOT OF 1+2+1 =2 • Z=(14-13)/2 = 0.50 (ROW 0.5, COL .00) • TABLE = .1915 • ANSWER = .5+ .1915 = .6915
IV 1A: E(X)=MAX EF =14 • 1B: CP = B-C-D • 1C: SIGMA = SQUARE ROOT OF 2+3+4 =3 • Z=(15-14)/3= 0.33 (ROW 0.3, COL .03) • TABLE = .1293 • ANSWER = .5+ .1293 = .6293
III 3 • BAYES • P(A’) = 1-.65=.35 • .4*.65 = .79 .4*.65+.2*.35
IV 3 • BAYES • P(A’) = 1-.65=.35 • .25*.65 = .70 .25*.65+.2*.35