Russia and the post 2012 climate regime foreign rather than environmental policy
Download
1 / 17

Russia and the Post-2012 Climate Regime: Foreign rather than Environmental Policy - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 100 Views
  • Uploaded on

Russia and the Post-2012 Climate Regime: Foreign rather than Environmental Policy. Dr Anna Korppoo The Finnish Institute of International Affairs 24 November 2008. Contents. Background Russian submission for Poznan Economic argument against post-2012 commitments Political arguments

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Russia and the Post-2012 Climate Regime: Foreign rather than Environmental Policy' - rosina


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Russia and the post 2012 climate regime foreign rather than environmental policy l.jpg

Russia and the Post-2012 Climate Regime:Foreign rather than Environmental Policy

Dr Anna Korppoo

The Finnish Institute of International Affairs

24 November 2008


Contents l.jpg
Contents

  • Background

  • Russian submission for Poznan

  • Economic argument against post-2012 commitments

  • Political arguments

  • Conclusion



Russia and the kyoto deal l.jpg
Russia and the Kyoto Deal

  • Collapse of GHG emissions due to the economic recession in the early-1990s

  • Kyoto base year 1990 – target to limit emissions to 1990 level

     Surplus allowances i.e. ’hot air’

  • Kyoto seemed like a good deal for Russia BUT dissappointment when the US withdrew

  • Kyoto mechanisms seem bureaucratic

  • Since Kyoto economic situation changed a lot as large revenues from fossil fuel exports – Kyoto money seems insignificant

  • Russian climate politics so far driven rather by economic gains than environmental concerns


Impacts of climate change not just doom and gloom l.jpg
Impacts of climate change: not just doom and gloom?

  • Belief that not only negative – also IPCC predicts some positive impacts in the Russian territory: decreased heating, improving agricultural potential, opening sea routes, new oil and gas reserves uncovering

  • Also negative impacts already at sight: forest fires, spreading diseases, floods, trouble for forestry industries

  • Changes in the North may be less relevant as less population

  • Official line to support the findings of the IPCC

  • No public pressure and ’climate hype’ – low awareness and the lack of democracy and a civil society

  • Sceptical views and engineering solutions by Russian scientists



Position for poznan russia is reluctant to commit to binding targets l.jpg
Position for Poznan: Russia is reluctant to commit to binding targets

  • G8 -50% by 2050 – ’aspirational’, NOT basis for distribution of emitting rights

  • Collective reduction target of 25-40% from 1990 level by 2020 ’unreasonable’

  • Effectiveness and fairness

    • national conditions and real capabilities of countries

  • ’Legally binding’ commitments acceptable if:

    • NOT enforceable and sanctioned

    • Possible to adjust on the course of implementation

    • Effective incentives to fulfill

  • Market approach: may lead to speculation

  • Grouping of countries need updating

    • economic and social indicators to guide



Slide9 l.jpg

Russian economy and GHG emissions are growing – in tandem? binding targets

  • Emissions 27% below 1990 in 2006

  • Emissions grown by some 15% by 2006 since the lowest point in 1998

  • GHG growth 2.6% in 2006 – GDP growth 6.7%


Economic growth and emissions l.jpg
Economic growth and emissions binding targets

  • Why emissions are growing?

    • Standard of living improving – power consumption up

    • Reintroduction of inefficient old capacity

    • Switch from gas to coal which price is seen as more stabile

    • Efficiency of economy improved due to modernisation less than expected

  • Putin’s goal doubling GDP 2000-2010 – cutting emissions could hinder achieving

  • Illarionov’s original argument during ratification which was disagreed by many, but now more support as emissions are growing

  • 45% of public do not think that public money should be spent on emission reductions

  • Stage of development of economies -thinking


Criticism of the economic growth argument l.jpg
Criticism of the economic growth argument binding targets

  • Recent GDP growth fuelled by the high oil price – not directly leading to higher emissions

  • Potential to improve energy efficiency – positive impact on the economy in general

  • Development towards post-industrialised economy

  • Recent global economic trends slowing down Russian economic growth?

  • Russian position could be challenged: not so difficult or costly to reduce emissions – even beneficial for the economy?

  • Already existing policies which can cut emissions

    BUT Western scientific views unlikely to be taken seriously in the Russian debate


4 political arguments l.jpg

4) Political arguments binding targets


Participation of other countries l.jpg
Participation of other countries binding targets

  • The Kyoto Protocol is not regarded as effective in Russia due to its small impact on global emissions

  • Large emitters wanted to join, also developing countries

  • The role of the US is important, seen as an equal partner for Russia

  • G8 key actor to encourage Russia to join post-2012 pact - Russia could support views opposing binding targets inside G8 but difficult to break concensus

  • G8 goal to cut 50% of emissions by 2050 labelled as ’aspirational’

  • Envy of the CDM early start compared to JI: Russia been unfairly treated


Russia as a global player l.jpg
Russia as a Global Player binding targets

  • Prestige of Russia – leadership seeking to regain status as a world power like the Soviet Union – showing muscle and independent decisions for instance with Georgia

  • Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol was a good example – Russia wanted attention and got it

  • Important that Russian decisions well backed by analysis as bad experiences in the early 1990s when the Soviet structures could not respond international requirements very competent way

  • Russia’s aim to gain a role as a world power could be a way to encourage Russia to join post-2012 regime


5 conclusion l.jpg

5) Conclusion binding targets


Conclusion l.jpg
Conclusion binding targets

  • Post-2012 regime very different for Russia than Kyoto: unlikely to be allocated benefits only

  • No incentive to join: Reluctant negotiation partner as no public pressure or environmental concern

  • Likely to expect space to grow emissions, limiting economic growth politically unacceptable

  • BUT - the Russian economic growth argumentation could be challenged – for instance BAU policies can cut emissions significantly

  • Unlikely to disagree with the G8 but likely to team up with the other reluctant members of the group - external political pressure important

  • Focus on Russian role as a world power and modernisation of economy rather than the environment


Thank you l.jpg

Thank you! binding targets

Contact: anna.korppoo@upi-fiia.fi