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Economic Outlook: Progress Amidst Challenges

Gain insights into the current economic landscape, from job creation to budget deficits. Explore recent trends in housing, exports, and more. Understand the impact of factors like government spending, banking practices, and inflation. Discover why economic growth, though improving, still faces hurdles. Delve into the risks posed by global issues and market fluctuations. Get ready to navigate the complexities of today's financial world with confidence.

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Economic Outlook: Progress Amidst Challenges

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  1. Rudney Associates Presents Looking Better ... but Still Not Great Steven A. Wood Lecturer University of California, Berkeley March 26, 2014

  2. The Economy is Growing …

  3. and Jobs are Being Created

  4. Unemployment is Retreating …

  5. and Wages are Picking Up

  6. The Fed is Highly Accommodative

  7. Keeping Interest Rates Low

  8. Banks are Lending Again

  9. Housing Starts are Climbing

  10. and Car Sales have Rebounded

  11. Exports are Growing

  12. But …

  13. But Growth is Still Sluggish …

  14. and Job Creation is Still Soft

  15. The Output Gap Remains Wide

  16. Leaving Employment Depressed

  17. with Lots of Part-Time Workers

  18. Unemployment is Still High

  19. Government Spending is Fading

  20. Government Spending is Fading

  21. Government Jobs Disappear

  22. Budget Deficit Rapidly Shrinks

  23. Money Supply Grows Slowly

  24. Banks Are Not Lending Much

  25. Banks Continue to Deleverage

  26. Consumers Also Deleverage

  27. Inflation Stays Low

  28. Below the Fed’s Target

  29. What about financial markets?

  30. Interest Rates to Stay Low

  31. Corporate Profits at Record Levels

  32. Stock Market at Record Levels

  33. Stocks Appear “Fairly” Valued

  34. But Profit Growth has Slowed

  35. The Major Known Risks • Confrontation with Russia/oil price shock • Weaker European growth/new recession • European sovereign debt problems • Political stalemate in Washington • The Chinese “bubble” economy • Slower emerging market growth

  36. Looking Better … but Still Not Great Questions?

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