1 / 25

Where to From Here?

Where to From Here?. Dr. Steven P. Lanza Executive Editor The Connecticut Economy CREUES Commercial Real Estate Conference November 11, 2009. RISK PREMIUMS: A RETURN TO NORMALCY. TED Spread = 3-month LIBOR minus 3-month Treasury Bill Rate. Existing home sales on the rise.

ronna
Download Presentation

Where to From Here?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Where to From Here? Dr. Steven P. Lanza Executive Editor The Connecticut Economy CREUES Commercial Real Estate Conference November 11, 2009

  2. RISK PREMIUMS: A RETURN TO NORMALCY TED Spread = 3-month LIBOR minus 3-month Treasury Bill Rate

  3. Existing home sales on the rise NAR Indexed Sales 2006 = 100

  4. Cutting the overhang of Supply Month’s Supply

  5. Stocks regain some lost ground + 40%

  6. New unemployment claims drop sharply “Normal”

  7. Factories start humming again PMI Manufacturing Index

  8. GDP marks a turnaround Contributions to GDP Growth +3.5% Percentage Points at Annual Rates -2.7% -0.7% -5.4% -6.4%

  9. “V” RECOVERY: IS HISTORY DESTINY? This Recession, at Historical Average Average Quarterly Growth During Equivalent Period of Expansion Average Quarterly Contraction During Recession

  10. Employers pared workforces aggressively Total Recession Job Losses, in Thousands 2007-Q4 through 2009-Q2 1 Million

  11. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS RETURNING Future +118% Index 1985 = 100 Overall +77% Current -5%

  12. MOST* STIMULUS SPENDING IS YET TO COME Spent $150 Billion 25% 75% Unspent $650 Billion * AS OF 11/11/09

  13. RETURNING TO LATEST TREND WILL TAKE TIME $18 $16 $15 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 Annual Growth Quarters to Trend 11.8% 5 7.1% 9 1.9% n.a. U.S. GDP, in Trillions 3.4% Trend = 2.9% since 2001, 3.4% 1947-present

  14. HOUSEHOLDS ARE SOCKING AWAY MORE INCOME Avg Personal Saving as a Percent of Disposable 1950 1970 1990

  15. DESPITE REBOUND, CONFIDENCE SUBDUED Index 1985 = 100

  16. LENDERS TIGHTEN STANDARDS AT SLOWER PACE, BUT LOANS REMAIN HARD TO GET Consumer Net Percent of Banks Tightening Standards

  17. AND LOAN DEMAND IS STILL WEAK Consumer Business Net Percent of Banks with Stronger Loan Demand

  18. TRILLIONS IN HOME EQUITY HAS DISAPPEARED Billions of Dollars -37%

  19. CT JOBS UNDER DIFFERENT RECOVERY PATHS GDP Growth 7% 5% Thousands 3% 2%

  20. PATHS FOR CT INCOME COULD BE SMOOTHER GDP Growth 7% 5% 3% 2% Billions of 2005 Dollars

  21. BUT JOBLESS RATE WILL BE HARD TO TAME GDP Growth 2% 3% 5% 7% Percent Unemployed in Connecticut

More Related