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1. Thailand - Electricity Consumption and GDP Growth

1. Thailand - Electricity Consumption and GDP Growth. The economy grew 3.1%/yr. and electricity demand 6.5%/yr. 2. Thailand – Increase of Generation vs. NT2. 3. Interim Results of Least-Cost Risk Analysis. Overall NPV versus no NT2: USD 269 million. 4. The Economic Value Chain.

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1. Thailand - Electricity Consumption and GDP Growth

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  1. 1. Thailand - Electricity Consumption and GDP Growth The economy grew 3.1%/yr. and electricity demand 6.5%/yr.

  2. 2. Thailand – Increase of Generation vs. NT2

  3. 3. Interim Results of Least-Cost Risk Analysis Overall NPV versus no NT2: USD 269 million

  4. 4. The Economic Value Chain End-use gWh times price = Consumer WTP Minus NT2 Investment, O&M and E&S management cost Minus marginal Transmission & Distribution cost power value-added =

  5. 5. Investment Cost (Financial)

  6. 6. NT2 vs CCGT (Commercial) Inner-boxed CCGT prices show NT2 and gas very close commercial competitors.

  7. 7. Cash Flow From Operations Non-GoL Dividends Debt service GoL dividends Tax Royalty

  8. 8. Real Present Value Returns of and to Capital GoL Equity: 25%; GoL returns: 43% of returns to all shareholders

  9. 9. Lao PDR Cumulative Returns Lao returns cumulate to USD 1.8~1.9 billion; Present Value of ~ USD 250 million at 10% DR

  10. 10. Summary of Interim Findings 1. Based on real resource costs (no taxes and sunk costs), NT2 is least-cost electricity; compared with CCGT the cost difference is large enough for NT2 to “absorb” taxes, royalties and commercial returns to equity. 2. NT2’s economic rate of return is satisfactory and robust. 3. When taxes, royalties and equity returns > 10% are added, NT2 and CCGT are close competitors; but NT2 has a fixed tariff, and CCGT costs will fluctuate with oil price changes. 4. GoL gets 43% of the returns for a 25% share holding, while shareholders earn normal returns for this kind of investment. 5. These results will be amended once the environmental and social costs now included (about USD 120 million) are fully assessed, and the final project construction price is known.

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