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March – December 2000 Observed by MOPITT, a Canadian instrument, flying on the TERRA, a US/NASA satellite. The First Global Observations of CO from Space. Understanding the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants: It’s not just for scientists any more!. An OPAR Brown Bag, 10 April 2013

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slide1
March – December 2000Observed by MOPITT, a Canadian instrument, flying on the TERRA, a US/NASA satellite

The First Global Observations of CO from Space

understanding the hemispheric transport of air pollutants it s not just for scientists any more

Understanding the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants:It’s not just for scientists any more!

An OPAR Brown Bag, 10 April 2013

Presented by Terry Keating, PhD

  • Hemispheric Transport and the Ozone NAAQS
  • What is TF HTAP and what is it doing?
  • What is the value-added by TF HTAP for OAR?
implications of transport for air quality management2
Implications of Transport for Air Quality Management
  • What are the magnitudes of each fraction?
  • How will each fraction change in the future?
  • How efficiently can each fraction be mitigated?
  • What is an appropriate level of responsibility for mitigation in the downwind area? (CAA §179b)
  • What policies and programs are needed to bring about mitigation of upwind sources?

NAAQS

“PRB”

slide6

Annual 4th Highest Daily Maximum 8-Hour Average Ozone Absent Anthropogenic Emissions from the United States, Canada, and MexicoSimulated by GEOS-Chem for 2006-2008(i.e. North American Background, formerly known as PRB)

The last O3 NAAQS review considered a level of this metric between 60 and 70 ppb.

Zhang et al (2011) Atmospheric Environment, 45:6769

slide7

Seasonal Mean Maximum Daily 8-Hour Average Ozone

Simulated by GEOS-Chem

“North American

Background”

(Formerly known as PRB)

Canadian & Mexican Influences

Influences from Anthropogenic Emissions outside North America

From Zhang et al 2011

slide8

Asian pollution contribution to high surface O3 events,

confounding to attain tighter standard in WUS

AM3/C180 total ozone

Obs (CASTNet/AQS)

AM3/C180 Asian ozone

June 21

2010

June 22

2010

Max daily 8-h average

Lin et al 2012

slide9
The Asian enhancement increases for total O3 in the 70-80 ppb range over Southern California, Arizona

25th

Lin et al 2012

task force on hemispheric transport of air pollution

What is the TF HTAP?

Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution
  • An expert group established in 2004 by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)
  • Co-Chaired by the European Commission (Dr. Frank Dentener, Joint Research Centre) & the United States (Dr. Terry Keating, EPA/OAR)
  • Phase 1: 2005-2010, culminated in first comprehensive assessment of HTAP
  • Phase 2: 2011-2016, working to improve the resolution of our assessment
  • www.htap.org
slide11

What is the TF HTAP?

Red border indicates U.S. participation.

slide12

Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

LRTAP was formed in 1979 under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.

slide13

Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

And Other Participants in TF HTAP

Approximately 750 individual scientists have taken part in at least one TF HTAP activity since 2005. Less than 10% have received specific funding support from EPA or EC.

slide14

HTAP 2010 Findings

Can current global models adequately simulate intercontinental transport of ozone?

Mediterranean

Central Europe > 1km

Central Europe < 1km

NE USA

SW USA

SE USA

Monthly Mean Surface Ozone (ppb)

Japan

Mountainous W USA

Great Lakes USA

  • There is a large spread across models. The ensemble mean generally captures observed monthly mean surface O3 but there are notable biases.
  • Simulation of O3 is generally good in early spring and late fall when intercontinental transport is largest.
slide15

HTAP 2010 Findings

Do current global models produce similar estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships?

EU

NA

EA

SA

  • Source-Receptor Sensitivity Simulations:
  • Base Year 2001
  • Decrease emissions of precursors in each region by 20%
  • Compare effects of different combinations of precursors
  • Approximately 30 modeling groups from around the world participated
slide16

HTAP 2010 Findings

Ozone Source-Receptor Analysis under HTAPchange in monthly mean O3 due to 20% reduction of NOX, VOC, and CO emissions

N. American Emissions

European Emissions

South Asian Emissions

East Asian Emissions

24 (+8) models contribute results; 14 models complete full set

how has surface o 3 changed

HTAP 2010 Findings

How has surface O3 changed?

How well does this match observations?

1974-2004 trend:

Obs 0.15 ppb/yr, Mod 0.13 ppb/yr

1989-2007 trend:

Obs 0.17 ppb/yr, Mod -0.03 ppb/yr

Wild, et al 2013

role of ch 4 in future o 3 scenarios

HTAP 2010 Findings

Role of CH4 in Future O3 Scenarios

Linearized results of 6 models:

O3 Change in 4 RCP Scenarios

CH4, Regional, & Imported

Components of O3 Change in “High” Scenario

Components of O3 Change in “Low” Scenario

CH4 is an important determinant of future O3 levels, potentially offsetting benefits of regional controls.

work plan for 2012 2016

Current Work Plan

Work Plan for 2012-2016

The focus of the Task Force’s work remains on characterizing regional vs. extra-regional influences on air quality and its impacts.

While HTAP 2010 presented the significance of intercontinental transport with very coarse resolution, our goal now is to improve the resolution of that picture by linking analyses at the global and regional scale.

Overall Objectives of Work Plan

  • Deliver Policy Relevant Information to the LRTAP Convention, Other Multi-Lateral Forums, and National Governments
  • Improve Our Scientific Understanding of Air Pollution at the Global to Hemispheric Scale
  • Build a Common Understanding by Engaging Experts Inside and Outside the LRTAP Convention
themes of cooperative activities under tf htap

Current Work Plan

Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAP

1. Emissions & Projections

Policy-Relevant Science Products & Outreach

2. Source/Receptor & Source Apportionment

3. Model/Observation & Process Evaluation

4. Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate

5. Impact of Climate Change on Pollution

6. Data Network & Analysis Tools

> 35 Work Packages identified, each with a volunteer leader.

emissions projections

Current Work Plan

Emissions & Projections
  • 2008 & 2010 Global Emissions Mosaics (WP1.1)
    • JRC is compiling a new global emissions consistent with regional modeling inventories being used in the United States, Europe, and Asia.
    • Expecting model ready emissions information by July 1, 2013.

HTAPv2

emissions projections1

Current Work Plan

Emissions & Projections
  • 2010-2030 Emissions Scenarios (WP1.2)
    • IIASA is developing 3 benchmark scenarios with explicit air pollution controls:
      • Current Legislation, No Further Control, Maximum Feasible Reduction
    • Based on IEA energy projections, OAP has provided input on CH4 emissions
    • Will serve as basis for discussion about available control strategies
source receptor analyses

Status of HTAP Efforts

Source-Receptor Analyses
  • Common Specification of Regions in a 2 Tier System

Tier 1 = 16 regions

Tier 2 = 60 regions

source receptor analyses1

Current Work Program

Source-Receptor Analyses
  • Nesting of Regional Analyses Within Global Analyses
    • Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase II, covering regional domains in North America and Europe
      • Led by Christian Hogrefe (ORD) and Stefano Galmarini (JRC)
    • Model Inter-Comparison Study – Asia Phase III, covering regional domains in Asia
      • Led by Greg Carmichael (U Iowa), Zifa Wang (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Hajime Akimoto (Asian Center for Air Pollution Research, Japan)
  • Comparison of Source Apportionment and Sensitivity Techniques
      • Led by Daven Henze (U Colorado)
    • Emission Perturbation Analysis
    • Adjoint Modeling
    • Pollutant Tagging
    • Artificial Tracers
slide25

Current Work Program

Work Flow and Timeline

2008-2010 Emissions

Deliver July 1

2010-2030 Scenarios

Deliver July?

Start July

Global Base Modeling

Regional Base Modeling

Start Sept

Global – Regional Perturbations

Model-Obs Analysis

Start Oct

Workshop?

Method Comparison

Start Oct-Jan

Start Jan 2014

Parameterization

Start Oct-Jan

Impact Assessments

Impacts of Mitigation

Start Jun 2014

model observation evaluations

Status of HTAP Efforts

Model-Observation Evaluations

Case Study on Import to Western North America (WP3.2) Led by Owen Cooper (NOAA)

impact assessment methods

Status of HTAP Efforts

Impact Assessment Methods
  • Human Health Effects
    • Led by Jason West (UNC) with Susan Anenberg (EPA/OAR/OAQPS)
    • Building upon the Global Burden of Disease Study
  • Ecosystem Effects
    • Led by Lisa Emberson (SEI-York)
    • Building upon the work of LRTAP Working Group on Effects
  • Climate Effects
    • Led by Bill Collins (Reading Univ, UK)
    • Moving beyond radiative forcing and global temperature changes
  • Proposed Workshop on Impact Assessment Methods
    • Pune, India?
    • Potential to link to Male Declaration, ABC-Asia, CCAC, and other UNEP activities
value added of tf htap for oar

Why TF HTAP?

Value-Added of TF HTAP for OAR
  • Filling Gaps in U.S. Program
    • E.g., global emissions inventories and air pollution control scenarios
  • Value of the Model Ensemble and Community Effort
    • A single model will give you an answer, but you don’t know how good it is.
    • Approach and results have gone through some peer vetting in an open process.
  • Ability to Focus Research on Policy-Relevant Questions
    • The science community wants to be useful to the policy community.
  • Products have many uses at both the global and regional scale.
    • E.g., Arctic transport, data networking, observational data collections
  • Low Investment, High Yield
    • 10:1 payoff for meeting costs. 3:1 leveraging for infrastructure investments.
  • Building relationships and technical capacities.
    • Country to Country, Science to Policy, Scientist to Scientist
  • Creating a Foundation for Decision-making and Action
additional slides on o 3 trends

Additional Slides on O3 Trends

Visit www.htap.org for more information.

slide31

Summer 1990-2010

Rural ozone trends

significant increase

insignificant increase

significant decrease

insignificant decrease

Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307

slide32

Spring 1990-2010

Rural ozone trends

significant increase

insignificant increase

significant decrease

insignificant decrease

Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307

slide33

Free tropospheric ozone trend above western North America

in April & May 1984-2011

95%

67 %

50%

33%

5 %

All available data above western North America, regardless of transport history, including observations by ballons (sondes) and commercial and research aircraft. All measurements were made between 3.0 – 8.0 km above sea level during April-May.

Ozone above the surface has increased by 29% from 1984-2011.

Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307

slide34

Surface ozone trends, beginning 1990-1999 and ending 2000-2010.

All trends are from the peer-reviewed literature.

significant increase

insignificant increase

significant decrease

insignificant decrease

From Owen Cooper (NOAA) for IPCC AR5

slide35

Average NO2 Column From Space

April-May 1996-1998 (GOME)

From Cooper, 2013

slide36

Average NO2 Column From Space

April-May 2009-2011 (SCHIAMACHY)

Seasonal Average NO2 Column (Mar, Apr, May,Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct)

with Annual Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (in black) from 1995 to 2011

From Cooper, 2013