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Status of Global and Regional Food Security, and Future OutlookPresentation at ASEAN Feed and Rice Symposium Bangkok, April 9, 2014 Hiroyuki Konuma FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific
Outline of my presentation • Present agricultural production and food security situation • Future outlook of food security situation towards 2050 (can we produce sufficient food to meet the growing demands?) • Constraints, challenges and uncertainties • Way forward
Cereal production for 2013/14 (as of March 2014) is expected to increase by 9%, contributed by wheat production increase of 8 %, course grain 11% and rice 1.1%
Global scenario on malnutrition • Undernourishment currently at 842 m (12% of global population) • 63 % or 529 m live in Asia Pacific (representing 11.8% of population) • Around 2 billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies (30%) • ~75 percent of people with micronutrient deficiencies live in Asia • 165 million children are stunted (26%) • In South Asia around 39 percent of children under age of 5 are stunted • 1.4 billion adults are overweight, of which 500 million are obese
Prevalence of Undernourishment (%) in Asian Countries (1990/1 to 2011/13) Source: FAO
Prevalence of Stunting among Children less than 5 years (%) (2010 to 2012) Source: FAO
Prevalence of overweight in Asian countries (BMI≥25) in adults Low-income Asian countries Middle-income Asian countries High-income countries Source: WHO Global NCD Status Report, 2010
Malnutrition in the Pacific Island countries • 80% of adults are overweight in the Cook Islands, Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Tokelau, Tonga and Samoa • 60% of adults are obese in Tonga and the Cook Islands; • 75% of all adult deaths are due to NCDs; • 40% of children under the age of five are anaemic in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Nauru, the Solomon Islands; Tuvalu; • 40% of pregnant women are anaemic in the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Nauru and Samoa
As food security improves, diets change South Asia East Asia Southeast Asia kcal/cap/day
Livestock products now among the top 5 commodities in all Asian sub-regions, 2012 East Asia Southeast Asia US$ billion at (constant 2004-2006 prices)
Livestock products now among the top 5 commodities in all Asian sub-regions, 2012 South Asia Central Asia US$ billion at (constant 2004-2006 prices)
Outlook Towards Year 2050 Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of the growing future population which would reach 9.2 billion by 2050?
World Population Trends Source: UN, 2011
Food Consumption Trends (Kcal/person/day) Source: Alexandratos, 2011
Global Urbanization Trends Source: UN, 2011
60% increase in food production needed by 2050(77% increase, if developing countries only) Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Demand growth for milk (to 2030) Million MTs Source: Robinson and Pozzi, 2011
Global Production in 2050 Compared to 2005/07, the world would produce every year as at 2050 • one more billion tons of cereals (45%) • 196 more million tons of meats (76%) • 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%) • 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%) • 429 more million tons of fruits (68%) • 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%)
Future Outlook Towards Year 2050 Can we increase food production by 60 % (or 77% in developing countries) by 2050 to meet the needs of growing population which would exceed 9 billion at that time? Yes! In principle we have to But majority of it (91 %) has to come from existing arable land through agricultural research and yield increase
Sources of Production Growth (91% is expected to come from yield increase) Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Targeted Increases in Food Production Must be met under Existing Constraints • Stagnation of expansion of arable land • Increasing scarcity of water resources • Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of investment in agriculture in recent decades • Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste • Various uncertainties such as future crude oil prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.
Limited Scope Exists for Expansion of Arable Land in Asian Countries (only 5% of existing land can be expanded mainly in Africa and Latin America) Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production Source: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP 2011 10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition, 28 - 30 March 2012, Bangkok
Growth in cereal yields is slowing Source: Bruinsma 2011
Livestock will require a larger share Percent cereals used as animal feed
Asia’s Net Feed Imports US$ million Source: FAOSTAT
Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999
FAO Food Price Index in February 2014 averaged 208 point s which was2.6% higher than previous month, 50 % higher in real term than 10 years ago
The price of cereals, sugar and dairy products are increasing (FAO Food Price Index, Feb 2014)
Uncertainty: climate change “worst case” 2080 scenario: • less harvested area, up to -39% (World) and -29% (developing countries) • up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011) Source: IPCC (2007)
The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.
World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production
Potential Risks (if the world is unable to meet the production target, and if there is a food shortage) • Export ban of food by food exporting countries to protect their own consumers • Uncertainty to secure food import • Food price hike • Food and feed price volatility • Negative impact to the poor consumers • Social unrest , political instability, ………
Remove bottlenecks, cope with constraints • Stagnation of expansion of arable land • Increasing scarcity of water resources • Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of investment in agriculture in recent decades • Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste • Various uncertainties such as future crude oil prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.
Technologies, institutions and policies But.... None of the solutions can be delivered without institutional support and sound policies Technology and institutions must work together; and policies must provide enabling environment for this
Let’s Work Together. For our future generation!
What measures might be taken to minimize the risks A. Production, Research • Sustainable agricultural intensification / Save and Growth Approach • Promote technical cooperation with developing countries, SSC , knowledge sharing • Contribute to the advancement of agricultural research and technological innovation • Enhance agricultural research, extension and ICT linkages.
B. Trade • Encourage more free trade agreements to secure food supply • Diversify trade sources • Negotiate long-term forward trade contracts • Establish emergency food reserve • Promote food security partnership under Regional /sub-regional frameworks such as ASEAN, ASEAN +6
C. Consumption • Diversify diets, which will help to ensure a healthier and more nutritious balanced diets, • Nutrition education • Reduce food losses and waste • Sustainable consumption • Create awareness and advocate the importance of food and agriculture