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Event Tree Analysis

Addressing Vulnerabilities to accident, sabotage and terror: Science and Technologies in Secure Energy Systems Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University Special Lecture at the University of Kuwait January 15th 2003.

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Event Tree Analysis

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  1. Addressing Vulnerabilities to accident, sabotage and terror:Science and Technologies in Secure Energy SystemsRichard WilsonMallinckrodt Research Professor of PhysicsHarvard UniversitySpecial Lecture at the University of Kuwait January 15th 2003

  2. Modern Society is veryVulnerable in many different waysEnergy systemsComputer NetworksTransportation Networks

  3. USE AN EVENT TREEWe must take into account the Low (Accident) Probability High Consequence event. (We discussed this in Lecture 1)Terrorists will and try to make it more probable

  4. Do not store a lot of fuel in one placenear a lot of people in one place. (Wigner)Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in remote areas.(In 1848 London decided to keep petroleum products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island)Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.

  5. Hydroelectric DamsMankind has built Ports and Cities on Estuaries and RiversFlood Control Dams and Hydroelectric Dams are in upper reachesFolsom Dam above SacramentoLittleton Dam on Connecticut RiverMissouri/Missisippi is worse!!

  6. LNG is a fuel almost ready to burn/explodeJust mix with air/oxygenTypical 17 million gallon tank could be 20 HiroshimasKeep your distance.

  7. Ammonia tanks and Ammonium Nitrate storage should also be remote.In 1990 Dr Adnan Shihab Eldin (outside Kuwait) noted the ammomia tank in Shuwaikh.If valve opened in a notherly wind, it would have been lethal to the residents 12 mile away.Solution (found by a Kuwiat in the country) drain the ammonia to the sea before Saddam noticed.

  8. Transmission Networks have failed for “trivial” reasonsA relay failure in Canada set off the NE blackout of 1967A substation failure in Naperville ILL shut down O’Hare airport

  9. Few plans for a major fire at WTC?(FEMA report)Insulation not tested for durabilityFire and initial impact destroyed all safety mechanisms (Common mode failure not foreseen! Train Fire fighters in event trees )Helicopter fire fighters?Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

  10. World Trade Center Building Construction inadequate in many waysPort Authority had its own codeNo code for the insulation

  11. Langer and Morse suggest that:Insulation sprayed on rusty beamsMay NEVER have stuck properlyNot as good as asbestosNot inspected again after other trades did their workThey claim that IF asbestos had been used building would still stand

  12. Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high.(expensive but possible;e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the temperature - time profile with calculation)

  13. We can protect energy systems a bit better but not enoughwe should step back and:Try to stop terrorists being createdTry to stop terrorists having accessWITHOUT ruining our society

  14. Event Tree Analysis Imagine what a terrorist might do: and devise a system to make it hard for him to do it.Stop the event as early in the chain as possible(dont let trouble spots fester)

  15. The chain starts even further back:(1) Creation of a terrorist(2) Terrorist has access to a vulnerable system(3) Terrorist acts

  16. The best strategy is trying to stop terrorists being createdTrying to prevent access can be done in a variety of ways

  17. Possible criteria for choosing sidesA terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983).The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery".   Thomas Jefferson (1774)

  18. One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 leader of Israel 1978Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of TunisiaA rebellion is a Revolution that does not succeed (Victor Weisskopf)May 1940,  I learned unarmed combat.Was I becoming a terrorist or a Freedom fighter?

  19. 30 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist.Then he became a freedom fighterWithin 6 months he was a statesmanHe did not change. He lives in Bangladesh

  20. Trying to prevent access to facilities by terrorists is never perfect but can be done in a variety of ways

  21. Use profiling to identify suspicous groups (BUT studies show that terrorists are just like us)Keep track of all suspicious activities.Dont let anyone near anything dangerous (no handguns shotguns etc)

  22. Fundamental QuestionHow does the United States have a Department of Homeland Security with extraordinary powerswithout it becoming like the infamous KGB?

  23. USSR society was probably more free from crime.They did it by fear.

  24. Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act in concertSabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life.They will be with us until the end of the human race.

  25. We must not let terrorism distort our lives. Other risks are bigger.Car accidents: 45,000/yr vs. 3,500 onceDrugs destroy society moreSecurity vs. Freedom Our human rights are what makes life worth living.

  26. “If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.”Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com

  27. Weapons of Mass Destruction Nuclear weaponsBiological Weaponsmust be treated differently(Chemical weapons, phosgene and Mustard gas are more ordinary)

  28. August 1940 I saw a first air raid on London50 lbs of TNT destroyed a house; killed one person19441 ton of TNT was a block buster. It destroyed a city block19458,000 tons of TNT equivalent destroyed a cityWe have 3,000 atomic bombseach ~ 200,000 tons ready to go.THEY COULD DESTROY CIVILIZATIONLarge consequence: let us keep it low probability

  29. In 1945 Scientists (e.g Einstein and Szilard) argued for International ControlGeneral Groves argued for overwhelming US strengthFollowing Eisenhowwer182 nations agreed: not to make nuclear weaponsallow inspections - in exchange for help in peaceful nuclear activities.GW BUSH seems to prefer Groves approach reversing 57 years of international policy

  30. The world MUST take violations of NPT seriously BUTif the only country to kill anyone with atomic bombs were to act unilaterally we would be set back 57 years

  31. But the other countries MUST act with thought and independence. Kuwaitis please think carefully about it.

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