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Change in the Middle East. Tunesië-Egypte het begin van een dominorevolutie? . End ‘dictatorships of sultans’?. Divided region. Common: dictatorships, weak opposition. Regimes lack ideology or vision.. Real independence traded for support of the West.

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Change in the Middle East


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change in the middle east

Change in the Middle East

Tunesië-Egypte het begin van een dominorevolutie?

end dictatorships of sultans
End ‘dictatorships of sultans’?
  • Divided region.
    • Common: dictatorships, weak opposition.
  • Regimes lack ideology or vision..
    • Real independence traded for support of the West.
    • History! After colonization, transition to authoritarian states.
  • Power of the people.
    • Humiliation versus dignity.
    • Defeated generation (post ’67).
    • Myth of passivity overcome.
stability versus dictatorships
Stability versus dictatorships
  • West: geo-strategic interests.
  • Lip service to democracy:
    • Attitude versus Saudi-Arabia.
    • Human rights clause in agreements.
  • Lower standard for democracy in region.
    • Fear of political Islam.
    • Dictators played into this.
no social activism
No social activism?
  • Region immune for change?
  • Police states not to be confused with docility.
    • Eighties trade-unions against IMF.
    • Growth NGOs.
  • Yet, no change.
    • Autoritharian corporatism.
    • Social pact with state.
revolutions or protests
Revolutions or protests?
  • Jasmine revolution: start.
    • Results too early to judge.
  • Socio-economic factors:
    • Unemployment, demography.
    • Growth without redistribution.
    • Informal economy, corruption. .
  • Trigger: political reform.
    • End political exclusion.
    • Protest not predominantly nationalistic or religious.
egypt
Egypt
  • Military Council leads transition.
    • Pushed reform constitution.
    • Interest in democratization?
    • Strong ties with business elite.
  • Weak opposition.
    • Lead: former NDP and MB.
    • Strong labor movement, no impact.
  • Post-Islamic revolution?
    • MB strengthened.
    • Sectarian violence.
    • Divide power with Islamists.
egypt7
Egypt
  • Pivotal role in the region.
    • Mediation Hamas-Fatah.
    • Stance towards Iran.
  • Khamisi: Revolution has just begun.
    • Need to complete the revolution.
    • Elections September.
    • Economic model: continuation neoliberal model?
old and new powers
Old and new powers
  • Israel prefers status quo.
    • Peace agreement with Egypt?
    • Previous regimes predictable.
  • Role Turkey more pronounced
    • More defiant: Gaza, Syria.
    • Example Islamic democracy.
  • Iran: breaking its isolation?
    • Confrontation Saudi-Arabia.
  • Saudi-Arabia:
    • Prevents change. Contra-revolution?
    • Different stance international community?
challenges
Challenges
  • Result transition in Egypt and Tunisia?
    • Revolution not finished.
    • Conservative forces.
    • Socio-economic problems.
  • Regime Kadhafi and evolution military intervention.
  • New geopolitical situation necessitates other policy US and EU.
    • Position towards Islamists.
    • Human rights and conditionality?
    • Political and socio-economic reforms.
    • Immigration.
more information
More information
  • Websites:
    • Media: The Guardian and BBC.
    • Blog: The Arabist.
  • Books:
    • The great war for civilization, Robert Fisk.
    • The Arabs, Eugene Rogan.
    • What’s really wrong with the Middle East, Brian Whitacker.