The Investment Decision Process

1. The Investment Decision Process • Determine the required rate of return • Evaluate the investment to determine if its market price is consistent with your required rate of return • Estimate the value of the security based on its expected cash flows and your required rate of return • Compare this intrinsic value to the market price to decide if you want to buy it

2. Valuation Process • Two approaches • 1. Top-down, three-step approach • 2. Bottom-up, stock valuation, stock picking approach • The difference between the two approaches is the perceived importance of economic and industry influence on individual firms and stocks

3. Top-Down, Three-Step Approach 1. General economic influences • Decide how to allocate investment funds among countries, and within countries to bonds, stocks, and cash 2. Industry influences • Determine which industries will prosper and which industries will suffer on a global basis and within countries 3. Company analysis • Determine which companies in the selected industries will prosper and which stocks are undervalued

4. Theory of Valuation • To convert this stream of returns to a value for the security, you must discount this stream at your required rate of return • This requires estimates of: • The stream of expected returns, and • The required rate of return on the investment

5. Approaches to the Valuation of Common Stock Two approaches have developed 1. Discounted cash-flow valuation • Present value of some measure of cash flow, including dividends, operating cash flow, and free cash flow 2. Relative valuation technique • Value estimated based on its price relative to significant variables, such as earnings, cash flow, book value, or sales

6. Why and When to Use the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Approach • The measure of cash flow used • Dividends • Cost of equity as the discount rate • Operating cash flow • Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) • Free cash flow to equity • Cost of equity • Dependent on growth rates and discount rate

7. Why and When to Use the Relative Valuation Techniques • Provides information about how the market is currently valuing stocks • aggregate market • alternative industries • individual stocks within industries • No guidance as to whether valuations are appropriate • best used when have comparable entities • aggregate market is not at a valuation extreme

8. Discounted Cash-Flow Valuation Techniques Where: Vj = value of stock j n = life of the asset CFt = cash flow in period t k = the discount rate that is equal to the investor’s required rate of return for asset j, which is determined by the uncertainty (risk) of the stock’s cash flows

9. Valuation Approaches and Specific Techniques Approaches to Equity Valuation Figure 13.2 Discounted Cash Flow Techniques Relative Valuation Techniques • Price/Earnings Ratio (PE) • Price/Cash flow ratio (P/CF) • Price/Book Value Ratio (P/BV) • Price/Sales Ratio (P/S) • Present Value of Dividends (DDM) • Present Value of Operating Cash Flow • Present Value of Free Cash Flow

10. The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) The value of a share of common stock is the present value of all future dividends Where: Vj = value of common stock j Dt = dividend during time period t k = required rate of return on stock j

11. The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Infinite period model assumes a constant growth rate for estimating future dividends This can be reduced to:

12. The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) If the stock is not held for an infinite period, a sale at the end of year 2 would imply:

13. The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) If the stock is not held for an infinite period, a sale at the end of year 2 would imply: Selling price at the end of year two is the value of all remaining dividend payments, which is simply an extension of the original equation

14. The OUMA Dividend Discount + Relative Value Model If the stock is not held for an infinite period, a sale at the end of year 3 would imply: Selling price at the end of year three is the value of the stock based on the Estimated Earnings times the normalized PE Ratio.

15. Present Value of Operating Free Cash Flows Where: Vj = value of firm j n = number of periods assumed to be infinite OCFt = the firms operating free cash flow in period t WACC = firm j’s weighted average cost of capital

16. Relative Valuation Techniques • Value can be determined by comparing to similar stocks based on relative ratios • Relevant variables include earnings, cash flow, book value, and sales • The most popular relative valuation technique is based on price to earnings

17. Earnings Multiplier Model • This values the stock based on expected annual earnings • The price earnings (P/E) ratio, or Earnings Multiplier

18. Earnings Multiplier Model Thus, the P/E ratio is determined by 1. Expected dividend payout ratio 2. Required rate of return on the stock (k) 3. Expected growth rate of dividends (g)

19. The Price-Cash Flow Ratio • Companies can manipulate earnings • Cash-flow is less prone to manipulation • Cash-flow is important for fundamental valuation and in credit analysis

20. The Price-Cash Flow Ratio • Companies can manipulate earnings • Cash-flow is less prone to manipulation • Cash-flow is important for fundamental valuation and in credit analysis Where: P/CFj = the price/cash flow ratio for firm j Pt = the price of the stock in period t CFt+1 = expected cash low per share for firm j

21. The Price-Book Value Ratio Widely used to measure bank values (most bank assets are liquid (bonds and commercial loans) Fama and French study indicated inverse relationship between P/BV ratios and excess return for a cross section of stocks

22. The Price-Book Value Ratio Where: P/BVj = the price/book value for firm j Pt = the end of year stock price for firm j BVt+1 = the estimated end of year book value per share for firm j

23. The Price-Sales Ratio • Strong, consistent growth rate is a requirement of a growth company • Sales is subject to less manipulation than other financial data

24. The Price-Sales Ratio Where:

25. The OUMA Dividend Discount + Relative Value Model If the stock is not held for an infinite period, a sale at the end of year 3 would imply: Selling price at the end of year three is the value of the stock based on the Estimated Earnings times the normalized PE Ratio (or use the P/S or P/BV multiples).

26. The OUMA P/EBITDA + Relative Value Model If the stock is not held for an infinite period, a sale at the end of year 3 would imply:

27. The OUMA Enterprise Value Relative Value Model If the stock is not held for an infinite period, a sale at the end of year n would imply:

28. Choosing the best RV Model • Compare the spreads between High and Low Multiples over time • Compare the differences between High and Low value estimates • LESS VARIATION BETWEEN VALUE ESTIMATES INDICATES A MORE APPROPRIATE VALUATION MODEL.

29. OUMA SUMMARY • SENSITIVITY MODELS • DETERMINE THE KEY VARIABLES • LET THE SALES AND EBITDA MARGINS VARY. • LET THE MULTIPLES VARY. • WHAT ARE THE APPROPRIATE HIGH AND LOW ESTIMATES OF VALUE?