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Seatrade Middle East Maritime Energy Transportation

Seatrade Middle East Maritime Energy Transportation

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Seatrade Middle East Maritime Energy Transportation

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  1. Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation Middle East Oil and Shipping FAST FORWARD ! 5 December 2006 Peter M. Swift Managing Director, INTERTANKO

  2. Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation Middle East Oil and Shipping TODAY

  3. Seaborne Crude Oil Flows - 2005

  4. Seaborne oil trade and Middle East oil production 24 12,000 Tonne miles 18 9,000 12 6,000 Middle East Oil Production - mbd 6 3,000 0 0 2006 2004 1970 1984 2002 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 '000 bil tm mbd Source: INTERTANKO/Fearnleys

  5. World Oil Reserves by Country, as January, 2006 (billion barrels) World Total = 1,293 Billion Barrels Source: EIA / Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005)

  6. Share of World Oil Reserves, 2006 Africa Asia & Oceania Middle East Europe / FSU Western Hemisphere Source: EIA

  7. World Oil-Producing Regions - 2006 (mbd) Source: EIA

  8. Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation Middle East Oil and Shipping FAST FORWARD !

  9. Oil Demand – Established world Courtesy: Braemar Seascope / Source: EIA

  10. Oil Demand – Emerging world Courtesy: Braemar Seascope / Source: EIA

  11. Crude Imports (m tonnes) Source: Braemar Seascope

  12. Oil Consumption Potential Source: Braemar Seascope

  13. Refinery Expansions: 2006-10* TOTAL 8,212 kbd *excluding Russia Source: Braemar Seascope

  14. Indian oil consumption, production, refinery capacities 4500 Refinery capacities 4000 Refinery Consumption 3500 Production capacities Cons. forecast 3000 2500 Forecast +3% 2000 Oil 1500 Consumption 1000 500 0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2010 1965 1968 1971 1974 2001 2004 2007 1000 barrels per day • Assumptions: According to the Indian Ministry of Oil, India is expected to increase product exports from some 0.4 mbd today to 1.9 mbd in 2012, Indian oil demand is expected to increase by 3%, which will result in an increase in crude oil imports from 2.3 mbd in 2007/08 to 4 mbd in 2012. (The distance from the Middle East to India is relatively short and this increased oil trade will only require some 10 VLCCs.) Source: BP/INTERTANKO+:

  15. Indian refinery projects India's Refining Expansion ('000 b/d) New Year Company Location Existing Essar Oil Vadinar NA 200 2006 Nagarjuna Cuddalore NA 120 2008 ONGC Mangalore 240 60 2008 Reliance Jamnagar 6 60 540 2009 IOC Panipat 240 60 2009 IOC Paradip NA 300 2010 Hindustan Bhatinda NA 180 2010 Bharat Bina NA 120 2010 Total 1,580

  16. CHINA: Crude oil import sources(‘000 tonnes) Source: Braemar Seascope

  17. China Imports vs. Tanker Demand Source: Braemar Seascope

  18. Tanker deliveries, demolitions & phase-out +7%+6%+8% 40 35 Phase out* Net 30 change 25 Deliveries 20 Demolition 15 Net change 10 5 *1.6 m dwt is 0 yearly added to phase out as -5 conversions -10 -15 -20 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 m dwt Source: INTERTANKO

  19. Middle East - Oil and Shipping • OPEC Middle East forecast oil production (IEA): • 29.1 mbd in 2005 • 30.2 mbd in 2010 • 34.9 mbd in 2015 • 45.7 mbd in 2030 • Middle East refinery capacity • 7.179 mbd in 2006 • 7.199 mbd in 2007 +0.020 mbd • 7.219 mbd in 2009 +0.120 mbd • 7.839 mbd in 2010 +0.710 mbd • 9.889 mbd in 2011 +0.710 mbd • 1 mbd to the US, Cape/Suez requires 39 VLCCs • 1 mbd to Japan, Malacca requires 22 VLCCs

  20. Prospects for Tanker Shipping • Upside • Increased dependence on Middle East as from 2010 – more long haul • Declining North Sea production • Tanker phase out 2010 • Downside • High deliveries 2007 (+7%), 2008 (+6%), and 2009 (+8%) • New export refinery capacity in India and Middle East, - positive for product tankers – negative for VLCCs • Russian pipeline to China/east • Increased non-OPEC (W Africa/N America) oil production in short term

  21. Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation Fast Forward On Tanker Issues ?

  22. Key Issues for Tanker Shipping • Maintaining the international governance structure for the shipping industry - support for IMO (& ILO) - “good” flag, class, PSC, etc. • Promoting ability to self-regulate - based on “best practices” • Environmental Challenges - oil in water, ballast water management, air emissions, ship demolition • Availability of properly trained officers - supply, unfair treatment (MLC), criminalisation

  23. “Good” Flag

  24. BUILDERS DESIGN TRAINING EQUIIP SUP EDUCATION CLASS SHIPBREAKERS CARGO INCIDENT MGT FINANCIERS SALVORS MANAGERS REPAIRERS OWNER OPERATOR CARGO AGENTS BROKERS CREW P&I LABOUR HULL INSR TUGS FLAG STATE PILOTS COASTAL STATE BUNKERERS WATERWAYS TERMINALS PORT AGENCIES GOV STATES LOCAL GOV STAKEHOLDERS IMO

  25. Poseidon Challenge- commitment to continuous improvement- commitment to working with all partners

  26. The Poseidon Challenge- an invitation to Partners

  27. Joint ITOPF-INTERTANKO SeminarINTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ONTANKER SAFETY, POLLUTION PREVENTION &SPILL PREPAREDNESS Jumeirah Emirates Towers Hotel, Dubai 6 December 2006 Registration from 0830 Seminar commences @ 0900 ALL WELCOME !

  28. THANK YOU www.intertanko.com www.shippingfacts.com www.themaritimefoundation.com

  29. Ownership of Global Proved Oil Reserves(1.1 trillion barrels) Exxon/Mobil 1.0% BP Investor owned oil 0.9% Europe NOCs reserves: ~ 4% of total Chevron 1.0% 0.9% Asia NOCs ConocoPhillips 2.1% 0.6% Africa NOCs Shell 0.5% 6.6% Russia NOCs 6.8% Latin America NOCs 9.8% Middle East NOCs 69.6% Source: EIA / National Commission on Energy Policy

  30. World’s Excess Production Capacity is in the Middle East (mbd) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1982 Middle East Rest of World Source: EIA

  31. Share of World Natural Gas Reserves - 2006 Asia & Oceania Africa Europe/FSU Middle East Western Hemisphere Source: EIA

  32. Middle East Expansion refinery projects Source: INTERTANKO/INTERTANKO/Petroleum Economist

  33. Middle East New refinery projects Source: INTERTANKO/Petroleum Economist

  34. Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation Middle East Oil and Shipping Future Shocks !

  35. Future Shocks ! Political Economic Environmental / legislative Other ??

  36. In Terms of Peak Oil Disruption Size, Million Barrels per Day Most Major Oil Market Disruptions Have Occurred in the Middle East Source: EIA

  37. The Strait of Hormuz is the World’s Most Strategic Oil Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 mbd More than One-Third of the World’s Seaborne Oil Trade is through the Persian Gulf Source: EIA

  38. World Oil Prices in Three Cases1980-2030 (2004 dollars / barrel) High Price Projections Historical Reference Low Price Source: EIA / International Energy Outlook 2006

  39. Reported tanker incidents Jan-Nov 2006 : total 237 Type Hull & incident: Machinery (total 61: Collision 14% 24 Engine;3 hull) F & E Grounding 26% 9% Miscellaneous Fire/Explosion 19% Groundings 32% Hull & Machinery Collision Misc/unknown Source: INTERTANKO/Informa

  40. Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation Middle East Oil and Shipping >>> Forward !

  41. World Oil Consumption,2003, 2015, and 2030 (mbd) 60 58 OECD 54 49 Non-OECD 45 32 2003 2015 2030 Source: EIA / International Energy Outlook 2006

  42. World Oil Consumption, 2003-2030(million barrels per day) 118 111 104 98 92 80 Source: EIA / International Energy Outlook 2006