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Seatrade Middle East Maritime Energy Transportation. Middle East Oil and Shipping FAST FORWARD ! 5 December 2006 Peter M. Swift Managing Director, INTERTANKO. Seatrade Middle East Maritime Energy Transportation. Middle East Oil and Shipping TODAY. Seaborne Crude Oil Flows - 2005.

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Seatrade middle east maritime energy transportation l.jpg

Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation

Middle East

Oil and Shipping

FAST FORWARD !

5 December 2006

Peter M. Swift

Managing Director, INTERTANKO


Seatrade middle east maritime energy transportation2 l.jpg

Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation

Middle East

Oil and Shipping

TODAY



Seaborne oil trade and middle east oil production l.jpg
Seaborne oil trade and Middle East oil production

24

12,000

Tonne miles

18

9,000

12

6,000

Middle East Oil Production - mbd

6

3,000

0

0

2006

2004

1970

1984

2002

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

'000

bil tm

mbd

Source:

INTERTANKO/Fearnleys


World oil reserves by country as january 2006 billion barrels l.jpg
World Oil Reserves by Country, as January, 2006 (billion barrels)

World Total =

1,293 Billion Barrels

Source: EIA / Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005)


Share of world oil reserves 2006 l.jpg
Share of World Oil Reserves, 2006

Africa

Asia &

Oceania

Middle East

Europe

/ FSU

Western

Hemisphere

Source: EIA



Seatrade middle east maritime energy transportation8 l.jpg

Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation

Middle East

Oil and Shipping

FAST FORWARD !


Oil demand established world l.jpg
Oil Demand – Established world

Courtesy: Braemar Seascope / Source: EIA


Oil demand emerging world l.jpg
Oil Demand – Emerging world

Courtesy: Braemar Seascope / Source: EIA


Slide11 l.jpg

Crude Imports (m tonnes)

Source: Braemar Seascope


Oil consumption potential l.jpg
Oil Consumption Potential

Source: Braemar Seascope


Refinery expansions 2006 10 l.jpg
Refinery Expansions: 2006-10*

TOTAL 8,212 kbd

*excluding Russia

Source: Braemar Seascope


Indian oil consumption production refinery capacities l.jpg
Indian oil consumption, production, refinery capacities

4500

Refinery capacities

4000

Refinery

Consumption

3500

Production

capacities

Cons. forecast

3000

2500

Forecast

+3%

2000

Oil

1500

Consumption

1000

500

0

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2010

1965

1968

1971

1974

2001

2004

2007

1000 barrels per day

  • Assumptions: According to the Indian Ministry of Oil, India is expected to increase product exports from some 0.4 mbd today to 1.9 mbd in 2012, Indian oil demand is expected to increase by 3%, which will result in an increase in crude oil imports from 2.3 mbd in 2007/08 to 4 mbd in 2012. (The distance from the Middle East to India is relatively short and this increased oil trade will only require some 10 VLCCs.)

Source: BP/INTERTANKO+:


Indian refinery projects l.jpg
Indian refinery projects

India's Refining Expansion ('000 b/d)

New

Year

Company

Location

Existing

Essar Oil

Vadinar

NA

200

2006

Nagarjuna

Cuddalore

NA

120

2008

ONGC

Mangalore

240

60

2008

Reliance

Jamnagar

6

60

540

2009

IOC

Panipat

240

60

2009

IOC

Paradip

NA

300

2010

Hindustan

Bhatinda

NA

180

2010

Bharat

Bina

NA

120

2010

Total

1,580


Slide16 l.jpg

CHINA: Crude oil import sources(‘000 tonnes)

Source: Braemar Seascope


China imports vs tanker demand l.jpg
China Imports vs. Tanker Demand

Source: Braemar Seascope


Tanker deliveries demolitions phase out l.jpg
Tanker deliveries, demolitions & phase-out

+7%+6%+8%

40

35

Phase out*

Net

30

change

25

Deliveries

20

Demolition

15

Net change

10

5

*1.6 m dwt is

0

yearly added to

phase out as

-5

conversions

-10

-15

-20

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

m dwt

Source:

INTERTANKO


Middle east oil and shipping l.jpg
Middle East - Oil and Shipping

  • OPEC Middle East forecast oil production (IEA):

    • 29.1 mbd in 2005

    • 30.2 mbd in 2010

    • 34.9 mbd in 2015

    • 45.7 mbd in 2030

  • Middle East refinery capacity

    • 7.179 mbd in 2006

    • 7.199 mbd in 2007 +0.020 mbd

    • 7.219 mbd in 2009 +0.120 mbd

    • 7.839 mbd in 2010 +0.710 mbd

    • 9.889 mbd in 2011 +0.710 mbd

  • 1 mbd to the US, Cape/Suez requires 39 VLCCs

  • 1 mbd to Japan, Malacca requires 22 VLCCs


Prospects for tanker shipping l.jpg
Prospects for Tanker Shipping

  • Upside

    • Increased dependence on Middle East as from 2010 – more long haul

    • Declining North Sea production

    • Tanker phase out 2010

  • Downside

    • High deliveries 2007 (+7%), 2008 (+6%), and 2009 (+8%)

    • New export refinery capacity in India and Middle East, - positive for product tankers – negative for VLCCs

    • Russian pipeline to China/east

    • Increased non-OPEC (W Africa/N America) oil production in short term


Seatrade middle east maritime energy transportation21 l.jpg

Seatrade Middle East MaritimeEnergy Transportation

Fast Forward

On Tanker Issues ?


Key issues for tanker shipping l.jpg
Key Issues for Tanker Shipping

  • Maintaining the international governance structure for the shipping industry

    - support for IMO (& ILO)

    - “good” flag, class, PSC, etc.

  • Promoting ability to self-regulate

    - based on “best practices”

  • Environmental Challenges

    - oil in water, ballast water management, air emissions, ship demolition

  • Availability of properly trained officers

    - supply, unfair treatment (MLC), criminalisation



Slide24 l.jpg

BUILDERS

DESIGN

TRAINING

EQUIIP SUP

EDUCATION

CLASS

SHIPBREAKERS

CARGO

INCIDENT MGT

FINANCIERS

SALVORS

MANAGERS

REPAIRERS

OWNER OPERATOR

CARGO

AGENTS

BROKERS

CREW

P&I

LABOUR

HULL INSR

TUGS

FLAG STATE

PILOTS

COASTAL STATE

BUNKERERS

WATERWAYS

TERMINALS

PORT

AGENCIES GOV

STATES

LOCAL GOV

STAKEHOLDERS

IMO


Poseidon challenge commitment to continuous improvement commitment to working with all partners l.jpg
Poseidon Challenge- commitment to continuous improvement- commitment to working with all partners


The poseidon challenge an invitation to partners l.jpg
The Poseidon Challenge- an invitation to Partners


Slide27 l.jpg

Joint ITOPF-INTERTANKO SeminarINTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ONTANKER SAFETY, POLLUTION PREVENTION &SPILL PREPAREDNESS

Jumeirah Emirates Towers Hotel, Dubai

6 December 2006

Registration from 0830

Seminar commences @ 0900

ALL WELCOME !


Slide28 l.jpg

THANK YOU

www.intertanko.com

www.shippingfacts.com

www.themaritimefoundation.com


Ownership of global proved oil reserves 1 1 trillion barrels l.jpg
Ownership of Global Proved Oil Reserves(1.1 trillion barrels)

Exxon/Mobil

1.0%

BP

Investor owned oil

0.9%

Europe NOCs

reserves: ~ 4% of total

Chevron

1.0%

0.9%

Asia NOCs

ConocoPhillips

2.1%

0.6%

Africa NOCs

Shell

0.5%

6.6%

Russia NOCs

6.8%

Latin America NOCs

9.8%

Middle East NOCs

69.6%

Source: EIA / National Commission on Energy Policy


World s excess production capacity is in the middle east mbd l.jpg
World’s Excess Production Capacity is in the Middle East (mbd)

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

1982

Middle East

Rest of World

Source: EIA


Share of world natural gas reserves 2006 l.jpg
Share of World Natural Gas Reserves - 2006 (mbd)

Asia &

Oceania

Africa

Europe/FSU

Middle

East

Western

Hemisphere

Source: EIA


Middle east expansion refinery projects l.jpg
Middle East (mbd)Expansion refinery projects

Source:

INTERTANKO/INTERTANKO/Petroleum Economist


Middle east new refinery projects l.jpg
Middle East (mbd)New refinery projects

Source:

INTERTANKO/Petroleum Economist


Seatrade middle east maritime energy transportation34 l.jpg

Seatrade Middle East Maritime (mbd)Energy Transportation

Middle East

Oil and Shipping

Future Shocks !


Future shocks l.jpg

Future Shocks ! (mbd)

Political

Economic

Environmental / legislative

Other ??


Most major oil market disruptions have occurred in the middle east l.jpg

In Terms of Peak Oil Disruption Size, Million Barrels per Day

Most Major Oil Market Disruptions Have Occurred in the Middle East

Source: EIA


More than one third of the world s seaborne oil trade is through the persian gulf l.jpg

The Strait of Hormuz is the World’s Most Strategic Oil Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 mbd

More than One-Third of the World’s Seaborne Oil Trade is through the Persian Gulf

Source: EIA


World oil prices in three cases 1980 2030 2004 dollars barrel l.jpg
World Oil Prices in Three Cases Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 mbd1980-2030 (2004 dollars / barrel)

High Price

Projections

Historical

Reference

Low Price

Source: EIA / International Energy Outlook 2006


Reported tanker incidents jan nov 2006 total 237 l.jpg
Reported tanker incidents Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 mbdJan-Nov 2006 : total 237

Type

Hull &

incident:

Machinery

(total 61:

Collision

14%

24 Engine;3 hull)

F & E

Grounding

26%

9%

Miscellaneous

Fire/Explosion

19%

Groundings

32%

Hull & Machinery

Collision

Misc/unknown

Source:

INTERTANKO/Informa


Seatrade middle east maritime energy transportation40 l.jpg

Seatrade Middle East Maritime Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 mbdEnergy Transportation

Middle East

Oil and Shipping

>>> Forward !


World oil consumption 2003 2015 and 2030 mbd l.jpg
World Oil Consumption, Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 mbd2003, 2015, and 2030 (mbd)

60

58

OECD

54

49

Non-OECD

45

32

2003

2015

2030

Source: EIA / International Energy Outlook 2006


World oil consumption 2003 2030 million barrels per day l.jpg
World Oil Consumption, 2003-2030 Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 mbd(million barrels per day)

118

111

104

98

92

80

Source: EIA / International Energy Outlook 2006