PASSENGER MOVEMENTS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN CITIES, 1970–71 TO 2030–31. David Gargett Afzal Hossain 13 February 2007. . Background. Arose from need to forecast light vehicle traffic on the national highways. But need to consider all modes. Thus aim is to model drivers of total
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13 February 2007
Historical Data: 1970-71 to 2003-04
Projections: 2004-05 to 2030-31
Population Growth Rates (ABS)
Changes in Fares (various sources)
Total passenger travel between any two cities (say i and j)can be calculated:
Tij = (Pi x Pj x GDPc2)0.524 / (Tc / CPI)-0.565
Tij - Total trips between regions i and j.
Pi and Pj - Total population in region i and region j.
GDPc - National gross domestic product per capita.
Tc - Real generalised cost of travel.
CPI - Consumer Price Index.
For example, on the short Canberra-Sydney route, the competitiveness indices are:
Air - 1.00
Car - 1.02
Coach - 0.98
Rail - 1.03
On the long Sydney-Brisbane route (more typical of the intercity routes), the competitiveness indices are:
Air – 1.00
Car - 0.97
Rail - 0.93
Information Sheet 26
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