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Monte Hall Paradox. Famous game show from the 70's Problem: Three doors One prize (car), 2 goats You chose 1 door Monte Hall (host) opens a door with a goat Asks if you want to switch Should you switch?. Monty Hall Problem. 1 Car, 2 goats Choose door. 1. 2. 3. Monty Hall Problem.

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monte hall paradox
Monte Hall Paradox
  • Famous game show from the 70's
  • Problem:
    • Three doors
    • One prize (car), 2 goats
  • You chose 1 door
  • Monte Hall (host) opens a door with a goat
  • Asks if you want to switch
  • Should you switch?
monty hall problem
Monty Hall Problem
  • 1 Car, 2 goats
  • Choose door

1

2

3

monty hall problem3
Monty Hall Problem
  • Monty Hall reveals goat
  • Asks if you want to switch
  • What do you do?

1

2

3

monty hall links
Monty Hall Links
  • http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/applets/LetsMakeaDeal.html
  • http://math.ucsd.edu/~anistat/chi-an/MonteHallParadox.html
easier monty hall
Easier Monty Hall
  • 1000 Doors, 1 car
  • You chose 1
  • Monty opens 998 goats
  • Should you switch?
monte hall paradox7
Monte Hall Paradox
  • Famous game show from the 70's
  • Problem:
    • Three doors
    • One prize (car), 2 goats
  • You chose 1 door
  • Monte Hall (host) opens a door with a goat
  • Asks if you want to switch
  • Should you switch?
monte hall
Monte Hall

1

3

2

Your Choice

monte hall9
Monte Hall

Goat!!

1

3

2

Your Choice

Should you switch?

monte hall probabilities
Monte HallProbabilities

1

1/3

3

1/3

2

1/3

Your Choice

monte hall probabilities11
Monte HallProbabilities

1

3

1/3

2

2/3

Your Choice

Should you switch?

Yes

two final difficult topics
Two Final (difficult) Topics
  • Time
  • Chaos/complexity
slide13
Time
  • Horizon
    • Days, weeks, months, years
  • Decisions
    • How effected by new information
complexity connections
Complexity/connections
  • Interconnection between different variables difficult to predict, control, or understand
  • System failures
  • May impact the correctness of our risk model
  • Model risk
behavioral features
Behavioral Features
  • Simple rules
  • Probability/ambiguity
  • Gambler’s fallacy
  • Regret/loss aversion
  • Overconfidence
  • Choice (information) overload
  • Under diversification
choice overload
Choice Overload
  • Jam samples in supermarket
    • Consumers sample jam
    • Can buy with coupon
  • Case 1: 6 jams
    • 30 percent redeem coupons
  • Case 2: 26 jams
    • 3 percent redeem coupons
information overload
Information Overload
  • Decision makers have lots of information
  • Need to decide what is relevant
  • Emergent patterns on irrelevant information
    • Sunspots
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