Great Leap ‘Forward’ wishful thinking, poor incentives, hungry. Table 1.3: How to cripple an agricultural economy: Statistics during China’s “Great Leap Forward”. Centralization, I .
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Table 1.3: How to cripple an agricultural economy: Statistics during China’s “Great Leap Forward”
Table 1.2: Failure rates in public and private expeditions to the North Pole and Northwest Passage (Karpoff, 2001)
K-step thinkers know proportions f(0),...f(K-1)*
Normalize g(h)=f(h)/ h=0K-1 f(h) and best-respond
A j(K)=m(sj,sm) (Pm(0) g(0) + Pm(1) g(1)+... Pm(K-1)g(K-1))
logit probabilityP j(K)=exp(Aj(K))/ hexp(Ah(K))
*alternative: K-steps think others are one step lower (K-1)
Top(.86) 30, 20 10, 18
Bottom 20, 20 20, 18
Enter or stay out ($.50)
Prefer to enter if n(entrants)<c (earn $1);
not enter n(entrants)>c (earn 0)
All choose simultaneously
Close to equilibrium prediction n(entrants) ≈c
“To a psychologist, it looks like magic”-- D. Kahneman ‘88
FL 0, 0 10, 30
FH 30, 10 0, 0
ML MH (.56)
FL 0, 0 10, 30
FH (.50) 30, 10 0, 0
Left (.43) Right (.57)
Top (.63) 0, 10 10, 0
Bottom (.37) 20, 0 0, 10
A B C D
1's payoffs +32 -28+20 -16
2's payoffs -32+28 -20+16
1 learns (A,B) or (C,D)
2 learns (A), (B,C) or (D)
Should they bet?
Air traffic control or neither? Building, movingChemical/rubber manufacturingCircus or carnival workConcrete or asphalt workCrop dustingFirefightingFurniture and fixtures manufacturingLumber work, including wood chopping, timber cutting and working in a sawmillMigrant laborOil well or refinery workPolice workRoofingSandblastingSports, semi-pro or professionalStockyard work, with or without butcheringStables, all employeesStunt workTelecom installationTransportation and aviationTree climbingTunnel workWar reportingWindow work at heights exceeding three stories
Lipitor (cholesterol)Zocor (cholesterol)Nexium (heartburn, ulcers)Prevacid (heartburn, ulcers)Advair (asthma)Zoloft (depression)Singulair (asthma)Protonix (heartburn, ulcers)Insurance company exclusions
2 or neither? nd Career program changes in ’74
100% of pay if injury is “disabling” + 2 yrs job training
Could choose own MD or psychologist
Increase in “system errors” (<3mi or 1000 vertical ft)
No increase in near missesMoral hazard in air traffic control?
Table ? : Increases in diagnoses after rule changes in “Second Career” program for air traffic controllers (Staten and Umbeck, 1982)
displaying 1 to 5 of 18581 of alleged cheaters or neither?
This is your brain on unfairness: Areas that are differentially active facing unfair offers (1-2) versus fair offers (4-5) (Sanfey et al 04 Science)