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Wind and Solar Integration Study: Forecast Data Analysis | National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Explore wind and solar forecast error distributions, mapping, and production forecasting data from the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS). Get insights into normalized forecast errors and day-ahead forecast capacities to optimize renewable energy planning.

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Wind and Solar Integration Study: Forecast Data Analysis | National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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  1. Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: Forecast Data National Renewable Energy LaboratoryGolden, Colorado USA Bri-Mathias Hodge Debra Lew Greg Brinkman NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

  2. Wind Forecasting Error Distributions • Using forecast errors taken from operational systems • Aggregated at regions that are ISO-sized • Map errors from WWSIS 1 through a model error distribution and tweak to generate more realistic error distributions

  3. Mapping Forecast Errors WWSIS Forecast Errors Model Production Forecast Errors 95% 95% -1 0 1 -1 0 1 Normalized Forecast Error Normalized Forecast Error

  4. WWSIS I Day-Ahead Forecast Errors Total Capacity: 9,600 MW κ = 0.95 γ= -0.094

  5. WWSIS I Day-Ahead Forecast Errors Total Capacity: 18,180 MW κ = 0.96 γ= 0.082

  6. WWSIS I Day-Ahead Forecast Errors Total Capacity: 26,760 MW κ = 0.92 γ= -0.103

  7. WWSIS 2 Day-Ahead Forecast Errors Total Capacity: 69,210 MW κ = -0.44 γ= -0.089

  8. ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution Total Capacity: ~9000 MW κ = 1.0299 γ= -0.0616

  9. ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution

  10. ERCOT Day-Ahead Distribution

  11. CAISO Day-Ahead Distribution Total Capacity: ~950 MW κ = 1.5025 γ= -0.393

  12. CAISO Day-Ahead Distribution

  13. CAISO Day-Ahead Distribution

  14. Xcel Wind Plant Total Capacity: ~300 MW κ = 1.05 γ= -0.65

  15. Solar Forecasting Data • Working with SUNY – Albany Atmospheric Science Research Center to get data on solar forecasting errors • Two different forecasting services: • National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts produced by the National Weather Service that are utilized as part of SolarAnywhere • The Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) forecast produced by the Canadian weather service • One year of data for day-ahead forecasts • Four sites: • Desert Rock, NV • Boulder, CO • Fort Peck, MT • Sioux Falls, SD

  16. Questions? • Bri-Mathias Hodge • 303-384-6981 • bri.mathias.hodge@nrel.gov • Debbie Lew • 303-384-7037 • debra.lew@nrel.gov • Greg Brinkman • 303-384-7390 • gregory.brinkman@nrel.gov

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