THE METRO AREA IMPACT OF HOME BUILDING IN PORTLAND, OR

1. THE METRO AREA IMPACT OF HOME BUILDING IN PORTLAND, OR Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. February 23, 2010 Portland, OR

2. LOCAL ECONOMIC IMPACT • Construction phase • Jobs • Materials • Local fees, taxes, contributions • Ripple or feed-back from construction • Wages spent in local economy • Occupancy phase • Earnings spent in local economy

3. The model does not say build housing to stimulate the local economy • Rather, it is job creation that results in increased demand for housing, but remember that….. HOUSING => JOBS

4. CONSTRUCTION PHASE $$ VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION $$ SERVICES PROVIDED AT CLOSING PERMIT/HOOK-UP FEES $ $ $ $ $ (Obtained from Local Sources) INPUTS: MODEL OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY INCOME FOR LOCAL RESIDENTS & TAX/FEE REVENUE FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENTS OUTPUTS:

5. RIPPLE PHASE LOCAL INCOME & TAXES FROM PHASE 1 INPUTS: SPENDING ON LOCAL GOODS & SERVICES Consumer Expenditure Survey (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) MODEL OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY OUTPUTS: LOCAL INCOME & TAXES

6. OCCUPANCY PHASE INCOME OF HOUSEHOLD OCCUPYING NEW HOUSING UNIT INPUTS: SPENDING ON LOCAL GOODS & SERVICES PROPERTY TAX PAYMENTS MODEL OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY OUTPUTS: LOCAL INCOME & TAXES

7. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA

8. The Portland-V-B, OR-WA MSA Only Captures Spending that Stays in the Area Includes: Banking, Car Repair, Dry Cleaning, Day Care Services, Dental Services, Electricity, Landscaping, Legal Services, Manicures, Medical Services, Newspaper Delivery, Restaurants and Psychiatric Care. But Not: Auto Manufacturing, Beer Bottling, Mattress Manufacturing, Meat Packing, Movie Production, and Travel Agency Services

9. History of the Model • Over 600 Economic Impact Analyses Performed • Users of the Model Include: • Boone County Kentucky • Habitat for Humanity, International • MI State Housing Development Authority • Michigan State University • Missouri Housing Development Commission • University of Florida • University of Massachusetts • University of Montana • West Virginia Housing Development Fund…

10. Assumptions of the Model Inputs To ModelSingle Family Average house price: $391,900 Average raw lot cost: $100,833 Permits/Infrastructure: $26,688 Annual prop. taxes: $4,022

11. Economic Impact of Single Family Home Building • 1st - Construction phase • 2nd - Ripple effect from construction phase • 3rd - Occupancy phase • 4th - Ten year total

12. FIRST YEAR IMPACT: SF Construction Every 1,000 SF Homes INCLUDING: 1,504 Jobs in Construction 329 Jobs in Wholesale & Retail Trade 172 Jobs in Business and Professional Services

13. FIRST YEAR IMPACT: SF Ripple INCLUDING: 313 Jobs in Wholesale and Retail Trade 236 Jobs in Local Government 188 Jobs in Health, Educ. & Social Services

14. ONGOING SF ANNUAL EFFECT INCLUDING: 150 Jobs in Wholesale and Retail Trade 82 Jobs in Health, Educ. & Social Services 76 Jobs in Eating and Drinking Places

15. Total SF Impact: First Ten Years Along with 3,515 temporary jobs And 557 permanent ones!

16. Largest Local Private Employers Employer# of FT Jobs Intel Corporation 15,141 Providence Health System 13,625 Fred Meyer Stores 9,630 Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of the N.W. 8,759 Legacy Health Systems 8,251 Nike 7,000 Wells Fargo 5,010 U.S. Bank 3,948 Southwest Washington Medical Center 3,350 Daimler Trucks of North America 2,850 Portland General Electric 2,800 Trimet 2,650 Regence 2,243 New SF Residential Construction (Per 1,000 SF) 2,184

17. BUT NEW HOMES REQUIRE: INFRASTRUCTURE • Fire and police protection • Garbage collection • Parks and recreational opportunities • Roads • Correctional facilities • Primary and secondary education • Etc…

18. Required Current Expenses per SF Unit

19. Required Capital per SF Unit

20. Now that we know: The benefits of construction & The costs of construction Does new construction pay for itself?

21. Yes it does! For every 1,000 SF units-- • By the end of the 1st year the debt is fully paid off • By the 1st year economic impacts offset fiscal costs • In the 1st year, net is $26,535,600 and is $2,561,600 thereafter

22. Over 15 years, every 625 SF units generate a cumulative $156.5 million in revenue for local governments—but only $94.3 million in costs

23. What does 1 year mean? • That is, should it be done faster, or is it O.K.? • Big purchases take time to pay off. • Car loans now last 5 years, and many lease! • How fast did you pay off your student loans? • How fast are your kids paying off theirs? • Did you pay off your home in 2 year?

24. Almost done, just a bit more

25. How Large Are Non Property Tax Revenues • Single family property taxes are $4,022/unit per year but, yearly revenue is $7,994/unit per year, which is 99% more. • Clearly, property taxes are not the whole story!

26. A Closer Look at Primary and Secondary Education • 12.6% attend private schools nationally • 1.7% are Home schooled nationally • 0.4 school age children/MF unit nationally • 0.6 school age children/SF unit nationally • OR-WA aid is $1.8 billion or 67% of budget

27. ANY QUESTIONS? • Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. • Call: 202.266.8398 • Fax: 202.266.8426 • eeisenberg@nahb.com • 1201 15th Street NW • Washington, DC 20005-2800 • Thank you very much!