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Climate Review: February 2004 Ed O’Lenic NOAA-NWS-CPC PowerPoint Presentation
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Climate Review: February 2004 Ed O’Lenic NOAA-NWS-CPC. February 2004 Summary. Feb, DJF Official forecast skills mixed Pacific slightly cooler overall than Jan, more La Nina-like SSTa max W. Pac., SSTa sub-warm-event. Convection stronger W. of dateline than Jan MJO weaker than in Dec, Jan

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Presentation Transcript
february 2004 summary
February 2004 Summary
  • Feb, DJF Official forecast skills mixed
  • Pacific slightly cooler overall than Jan, more La Nina-like
  • SSTa max W. Pac., SSTa sub-warm-event.
  • Convection stronger W. of dateline than Jan
  • MJO weaker than in Dec, Jan
  • Walker Circulation like Dec
  • PNA moderately +/AO,NAO strongly -
  • STJ weak, Pacific jet N. of normal
  • Long-lived stratospheric warming in NH high latitudes
  • Wet Tx, Fl, Ca
  • Cold Grt. Basin, South
  • Siberia abnormally cold
  • NE SOAM, NW Australia, W. EU wet
february 2004 t official update observations
February 2004 TOfficial, Update, Observations

OFF

UPD

OBS

Off. Up. Change

All Stations +4.3 -2.2 -6.5

Non-EC: +17.2 -6.1 -23.3

% Cov: 25.0 35.3 +10.3

february 2004 p official update observations
February 2004 POfficial, Update, Observations

UPD

OFF

OBS

Off. Up. Change

All Stns: -3.0 -3.4 -0.4

Non-EC-35.0 -8.0 +27.0

% Cov: 8.6 43.1 +34.5

forecast t djf
Forecast T DJF

All Non-EC % Cov

+2.6 +5.6 46.6

forecast p djf
Forecast P DJF

All Non-EC % Cov

-2.2 -7.8 27.6

djf 33 year ac skill of mrf9 echam cola nsipp should these be stratified by enso vs neutral
DJF 33-year AC skill of MRF9, ECHAM, COLA, NSIPP: Should these be stratified by ENSO vs. Neutral?

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

slide16

MJO activity, enhanced

during December reached

peak amplitude during

January, weakened and

continued in February.

slide17

As spring (fall) approached in the Northern (Southern) hemispheres during February, variability continued to be large in the global Tropics. MJO activity persisted, but was weak. Convection returned to a more West-of-the-dateline-enhanced configuration. NH 200 hPa heights were abnormally high all month, forcing lower heights to middle latitudes.